A new statewide poll of 973 registered Republican primary voters by the Political Matrix/Listeners group finds that voters are still largely undecided about Florida’s gubernatorial race, conveying apathy among the Republican base that benefits the front-runner, the Donald, who clearly has more name recognition thanks to a relentless barrage of TV ads including endorsements for President Trump.
But in the first uninformed vote, Donalds came out on top with 29%, a number that reveals his vulnerability to delay claims by challengers.
Of these challengers, Paul Renner appears to be in the best position. He remains in second place, with 14% of voters viewing him as the most conservative and likely candidate of the remaining candidates. His background as a Navy veteran, former prosecutor and key architect of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ conservative policies resonates strongly with voters.
“Byron Donald is the frontrunner, there’s no question about that,” said Greg Fink, president of Palafox Productions and Promotions and Political Matrix/The Listener Group. “But what our respondents indicate is that there is more than enough room for someone else to make a move, and Paul Renner is the perfect candidate to do so.”
Key findings from the survey include:
–The Republican primary for governor remains very fluid and undecided. Even when voters were forced to choose between leading candidates, 49% remained undecided.
– Byron Donald is currently in the lead and also has a big win in the all-important Southwest Florida region.
– Paul Renner has won on his home turf in Northeast Florida and has performed very well in the Panhandle as well.
– The Tampa Bay market is heavily populated with Jay Collins, Paul Renner, and Byron Donald, with Donald having the upper hand.
– James Fishbach currently polls within the margin of error and is virtually unknown to Republican voters.
The poll also found that an endorsement from Gov. Ron DeSantis would make 62% of voters more likely to support the governor’s chosen candidate, underscoring the continued influence of the governor’s brand in the Republican primary. In fact, this is almost as strong as the influence of endorsements, which make people about 65% more likely to support President Trump’s chosen candidate.
“President Trump remains one of the biggest factors in primary politics,” Fink said. “But candidates who can clearly communicate their accomplishments and conservative results have a chance to be competitive. Florida is a very slow primary state, and there are countless examples of big moves in the last five to six weeks before an election.”
The survey was conducted using live telephone interviews with registered Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the entire sample is ±3.14% at the 95% confidence level.
