Poll: Majority of voters say the U.S. economy has worsened over the past year

According to the Rasmussen Report, most voters believe the U.S. economy has declined over the past year, and economic concerns are expected to weigh heavily in this fall’s congressional elections.

Fifty-eight percent of likely U.S. voters say the economy has worsened over the past year, according to a new national telephone and online survey from Rasmussen Reports. Only 17% say the economy has improved, and 21% think things are staying about the same.

The survey also found continued pessimism about the country’s overall direction. Thirty-six percent of likely voters said the country was headed in the right direction, while 58% said it was on the wrong path. By comparison, a year ago, 48% said the U.S. was heading in the right direction and 46% said it was on the wrong path.

Voters are almost evenly split on which party they trust more to run the economy. Forty-three percent said they trusted Democrats more on this issue, and 42% said they trusted Republicans more. Another 15% were undecided. In January, Republicans held a narrow 2-point lead on this question, 46% to 44%.

The economy has also emerged as a major issue in the midterm elections. According to the Rasmussen Report, 53% of potential voters say the economy will be the most important issue when deciding whether to vote in this fall’s parliamentary elections. 37% said other issues would be more important, but 10% were unsure.

Among voters who said the economy would be the top issue in November, 48% said they had more confidence in Democrats to address the issue.

Partisan divisions remain sharp. 83% of Democrats say they have more confidence in their party to run the economy, and 80% of Republicans say they have more confidence in the Republican Party. Among independent voters, 36% said they trusted Republicans more, 32% said they trusted Democrats more, and 32% were unsure.

Views on the economy also vary greatly depending on the political party. 29% of Republicans say the economy has gotten better over the past year, compared to 9% of Democrats and 11% of independent voters. Meanwhile, 79% of Democrats say the economy is worsening, as do 34% of Republicans and 60% of independent voters.

The survey found that concerns about the economy cut across party lines, with 56% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans and 48% of independent voters saying the economy would be the most important issue in a congressional vote.

There are also gender differences in voters’ views on the economy and trust in political parties. According to Rasmussen’s report, 63% of female voters say the economy has worsened over the past year, compared to 53% of men. Women trust Democrats 47% to 37% on the economy, while men trust Republicans 48% to 39%.

By race/ethnicity, 42% of white voters, 61% of black voters, 38% of Hispanic voters and 28% of other minority voters said they had more confidence in Democrats to manage the economy. By contrast, 45% of white voters, 20% of black voters, 42% of Hispanic voters and 38% of other minority voters said they had more trust in Republicans.

Black voters are the most likely to say the economy has worsened over the past year, according to the Rasmussen Report. Voters in their 40s were the most likely to say the economy would be the most important issue in the midterm elections, and voters between the ages of 50 and 64 were the most likely to trust Republicans to handle the economy.

Income also influenced voters’ attitudes. Voters with annual incomes of $50,000 to $100,000 were the most likely to say the economy will be the most important issue in the fall election. Voters with annual incomes of $200,000 or more were the most likely to trust Democrats to run the economy.

The survey also revealed sharply divided opinions among 2024 presidential voters. 86% of those who voted for Kamala Harris said the economy has worsened over the past year. Among Donald Trump supporters, 29% agreed.

The economic findings come after the Rasmussen report found gaps in other measures related to President Trump. Pollsters report that voter support for the Iran war has fallen by 12 points in less than three months, even though a majority of supporters report the terms of a peace deal. The Rasmussen Report also said that President Trump’s monthly approval rating in May was 43%, down 1 point from April, but 56% disapproved of President Trump’s performance, up 2 points from the previous month.