Ottawa’s emissions reduction plan could drive Alberta into a “deep recession” by 2030, raising consumer prices nationwide and lowering Canadian income by 2050, says a new report from the Alberta Government’s commissioned Canadian Conference Committee.
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The Canadian Conference report says the country is not doing well to reach its net-zero target. In the most “realistic” scenario proposed by the author, emissions will fall by 32% in 2030 and 68% by 2050, resulting in “significant economic costs.”
The report predicts that these cuts will result in a 2.6% reduction in Canadian employment, a 3.8% decline in actual GDP, and a 2.5% rise in consumer prices by 2050. These estimates are based on the report’s baseline forecast and assume that emissions are close to 700 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
Compared to other states, Alberta is “disproportionately affected by ERP policies,” the report says, highlighting the key role of the oil and gas sector in the state’s economy.
“As proposed, ERP does not fully consider the economic implications of its policy, and the pace of intake required for critical technologies to reduce emissions is unrealistic,” reads the document. “Alberta will experience a severe recession in 2030 and then experience slow economic growth compared to baseline forecasts.”
In a realistic scenario projected by the author, Alberta’s GDP will fall by 11%, provincial employment will fall by 4.1%, and government revenue will fall by 9.3% by 2050.
The Epoch Times requested comment from Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada, but did not respond to any publication times.
Alberta Prime Minister Daniel Smith said the report “is just how catastrophic these policies are,” while Ottawa “needs to rethink that approach.”
The Smith government is strongly opposed to many federal climate change policies, including impact assessment laws that introduce federal environmental requirements for major projects such as the pipeline. Emissions are the oil and gas caps, and Alberta says it is the de facto production cap. And Ottawa’s goal is to completely decarbonize it.
The federal government says it has the power to enforce measures on issues of national concerns such as climate change, but Alberta believes the measure is an overreach to local jurisdiction and resource development.
According to the report, Canada’s 2030 emission reduction target target has reduced emissions from the oil and gas sector by 42% compared to 2019 levels, compared to 2019 levels, and is responsible for nearly 30% of overall economy emission reduction reductions by 2030.
Former federal environment minister Stephen Gilby argues that measures like emission caps are needed as the oil and gas sector accounts for a third of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. According to a recent domestic inventory report, the sector accounted for 31% of 2022 emissions.
The Canadian Conference Committee report concludes that Ottawa’s 2030 and 2050 goals are “ambitious, necessary, and possibly necessary,” but suggests that potential economic impacts should also be considered.
