I write a lot about politics. That’s important, but a lot of it bore me. But as we approach 2026, if you hear more, it’s how Florida’s affordability crisis will shape future elections.
That should surprise anyone. For years, Floridians have complained about the high costs of housing, insurance, utility and other daily basics. They have seen omissions from Tallahassee, obstructions from Washington, and tax and regulatory policies that have been massaged over time to support large corporations.
However, it takes time for public opponents to enter into action. Voters get the opportunity to do something about it every two years in the poll. That’s why it has become an election in 2026 that is seen as a pioneer in Florida’s politics. The issue of pocketbooks could bring true substance to the governor’s race and the Downballot election. They have played an oversized role in Florida’s local elections for several years.
First, let’s take a look at the big indicators across the state. Florida’s popularity has faded. Florida is one of the top states of migration, but in 2023 a record number of people left the state. An estimated 637,000 people moved from other states to Florida that year, while 511,000 people moved. This is a 50% decline in net mobility from the previous year, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce reported in December, reporting a first significant decline in 10 years.
Furthermore, the growth of Florida migratory birds relies on older transplants while younger Floridians leave. People in their 20s, especially “leaving quite a few,” found rooms, citing factors such as the high cost and limited employment opportunities for young professionals. “It appears Florida is struggling to keep its graduates,” the Chamber of Commerce noted, citing the disconnect between the education system and the workforce.
It should not be news for anyone paying attention to Florida’s lagging educational performance, the state’s failure to move to cheaper energy, or the Trump administration’s tariff policy.
A state report last month showed that over 40% of elementary school students in Florida could not do grade level math or reading. This spring, Florida lawmakers killed laws that curb rave reviews by utilities, despite experts predicting Florida’s electricity bills will surpass inflation this summer, reaching its highest in a decade. And a new report this month by Florida Taxwatch estimates that the Trump administration’s tariffs will add thousands of dollars to prices for Florida homes and vehicles, raising weekly grocery bills between 10% and 15% each week.
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This economic narrowing and brain drain among young people ripen into the talk of Florida’s 2026 governor race. Democrats still struggle to compete for legislative seats thanks to 30 years of Republican gerrymandering and judicial appointments, and their own chaos and persecution – affordability, but affordability could be a winning platform. It also gives Republicans the opportunity to change tucks and independences to bending their political muscles.
The cost of living in Florida is also an issue with local race. This is because the mayor and city and county board candidates face greater demands for affordable housing, mass transport, small business support, trash, sewer and stormwater credits. That too, no one in Tampa Bay should be surprised. There, residents have been cramming local government meetings in recent years calling for relief. No one is looking for a new Taj Mahals downtown, but they don’t want smarter spending, better flood management, or employment reins. These calls will only intensify before the next election cycle if Florida is struggling with another devastating hurricane season this year.
The other day, the Tampa Bay Times story soon captured political indifference that was soon threatened with a real election. For the third year in a row, Floridians say it’s getting harder to buy groceries. However, the state refused to participate in federal programs that provide additional food aid to the poor over the summer. This is another example of Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is milking the points of yesterday’s story, trying to appease the anti-Washington ideologue. But we’ve left $259 million on the table, hurting millions of children in the process.
I don’t know how this sentiment will manifest in the 2026 election. However, only fools do not realize that the dynamics have changed.
