Florida. Democrats have improved their turnout numbers for early voting. Below is a transcript of Dave Trotter’s analysis provided on his YouTube channel, Voting Trend. Trotter has been working in political data and predictive election models for over 30 years.
Early voting data from Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Texas suggest Democrats are performing better than expected, raising the possibility of a significant shift in voter turnout ahead of Election Day.
With just over a week remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, early voting numbers in several states are showing encouraging signs for Democrats. Perhaps the biggest surprise is Florida, where registered Democrats continue to outpace registered Republicans in the total number of ballots cast.
After more than 30 years of following Florida politics, I can say this is something I did not anticipate.
A week ago, I would have been skeptical if someone told me Democrats would lead Republicans in ballots cast statewide. I would have been even more skeptical if they predicted that lead would survive through the weekend.
Yet that is exactly what has happened.
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Florida Democrats Maintain Unexpected Early Voting Lead
Heading into the weekend, registered Democrats had submitted approximately 10,000 more ballots than registered Republicans. That advantage has narrowed slightly to approximately 8,200 ballots, but Democrats remain ahead.
The turnout percentages tell an even more interesting story.
Approximately 26.75% of registered Democrats have already voted, compared with less than 20% of registered Republicans.
For perspective, total Democratic turnout in Florida’s 2022 midterm election was approximately 50%, compared with 64% for Republicans.
Democrats have already reached more than half of their 2022 turnout percentage, with additional early voting days and Election Day still ahead.
The gap between Democratic and Republican turnout rates is particularly noteworthy because it suggests greater participation among Democratic registrants.
Among ballots reported in the latest daily update, Democrats accounted for 40.8%, compared with 37.7% for Republicans.
However, there is an important distinction between turnout by party registration and actual support for candidates. These numbers show which registered voters are casting ballots, not which candidates are receiving their votes.
Republicans Still Lead in Early In-Person Voting, but Their Advantage Has Shrunk
Historically, Republicans have performed particularly well in Florida’s early in-person voting.
That remains true statewide, but the partisan composition has shifted considerably.
Currently, Republicans account for 43.5% of early in-person ballots, compared with 36.6% for Democrats.
During the 2024 election, Republicans represented 47.8% of all early in-person voters, while Democrats accounted for just 28.4%.
That means Democrats’ share of early in-person voting has increased by 8.2 percentage points, while the Republican share has declined by 4.3 percentage points.
This shift is especially important given how heavily Republicans have relied on early in-person voting.
In 2024, approximately 54.2% of participating registered Republicans voted early in person, compared with 43% of participating registered Democrats.
Although Republicans continue to lead in this voting method, Democrats are performing considerably better than they did two years ago.
Democrats also continue to show strength in vote-by-mail participation.
The critical question is whether Republicans can narrow the gap during the final week of early voting.
Florida Congressional Districts Show Surprising Democratic Strength
Some of the most unexpected early voting figures are coming from congressional districts generally considered favorable to Republicans.
Florida’s 4th Congressional District
In Florida’s 4th Congressional District, represented by Republican Aaron Bean, registered Democrats account for approximately 46.5% of early in-person voters.
Republicans account for 39.9%, while voters registered without party affiliation or with other parties represent 13.6%.
The district includes Nassau County, Clay County and portions of Duval County.
This is not a district Democrats have generally treated as a top pickup opportunity. Nevertheless, Democratic registrants are leading in the voting method that has traditionally favored Republicans.
That does not guarantee a Democratic victory, but it is an unusual development worth watching.
Florida’s 18th Congressional District
Another closely watched district is Florida’s 18th Congressional District, represented by Republican Scott Franklin.
Following redistricting, the district’s political composition changed, potentially making it more competitive.
Current early in-person voting figures show Democrats and Republicans each accounting for approximately 40.2% of ballots, with Democratic voters holding a narrow lead of just five ballots.
No-party-affiliation and other voters represent approximately 19.6%.
The nearly even split is noteworthy for a district Republicans would ordinarily expect to perform well in.
Redistricting changes could also create unexpected challenges for Republicans in other congressional districts, including South Florida seats that previously contained more heavily Republican areas.
However, Democratic incumbents in districts affected by the changes, including Darren Soto and Kathy Castor, could also face difficult races.
Democrats Lead Early In-Person Voting in 47 Florida House Districts
Perhaps one of the most striking findings involves the Florida House of Representatives.
Democrats currently hold just 34 of the chamber’s 120 seats.
Yet an analysis of early in-person voting shows Democratic registrants leading Republican registrants in 47 state House districts.
That is 13 more districts than Democrats currently control.
Importantly, those figures do not include vote-by-mail participation, where Democrats have generally performed more strongly.
Several potentially competitive districts are located throughout Central Florida, including parts of Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake counties.
Other competitive districts are emerging around Tampa and in Polk County.
Polk County, long considered a Republican stronghold, has produced particularly surprising numbers. Republican registrants are leading in ballots cast by only about six percentage points.
The county’s political evolution makes that especially notable. Once a traditional Democratic county, Polk shifted toward Republicans over several decades and became a reliably Republican area.
A relatively narrow participation gap could suggest changing turnout patterns, although the final election results will determine whether those changes translate into Democratic gains.
Could Florida Experience a Democratic Wave?
Florida has repeatedly disappointed Democrats who expected major statewide victories.
The 2018 gubernatorial election is one example. Despite optimistic predictions about Andrew Gillum’s prospects, Republican Ron DeSantis narrowly won.
The 2022 election was even more decisive, as unusually strong Republican turnout combined with weak Democratic participation to produce a landslide victory for DeSantis.
Now, early voting trends suggest the possibility of a reversal.
Democrats currently have an approximately seven- to eight-percentage-point turnout-rate advantage over Republicans.
If that advantage expands toward 10 percentage points, Florida could become significantly more competitive than political observers anticipated.
The comparison with 2022 is particularly important.
That year, Republican turnout reached approximately 64%, while Democratic turnout was around 50%.
If something resembling the reverse occurs in 2026, Democrats could have an opportunity for major gains.
Still, there are important uncertainties. Several counties have not reported all their latest vote-by-mail totals, including Miami-Dade, Osceola and Duval.
Additional Republican ballots could narrow or erase the Democratic advantage.
Georgia: Democrats Gain Strength in Metro Atlanta
Georgia is another state showing favorable early voting trends for Democrats.
Approximately 1.7 million to 1.8 million voters have already cast ballots, and metro Atlanta continues to account for much of the Democratic strength.
Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties are producing encouraging turnout figures, while Henry and Clayton counties are also contributing significantly.
Gwinnett County is particularly important.
During the 2024 election, weaker-than-expected Democratic participation in Gwinnett raised concerns about the party’s statewide performance.
This year, the county appears to be outperforming those earlier expectations.
There are still some concerns about turnout in Clarke, Chatham, Richmond and Muscogee counties. However, stronger participation across metro Atlanta appears to be compensating for those weaknesses.
The Georgia forecasting model currently projects a Democratic margin of approximately 2.3 percentage points.
Of 10,000 simulated election outcomes, Democrats win 88.1%, compared with 11.9% for Republicans.
The model also indicates that approximately 44.5% of expected turnout has already occurred.
Those figures suggest a favorable Democratic environment, although model probabilities are not guarantees of election results.
Michigan: Democrats Hold a Strong Forecast Advantage
Michigan’s early voting trends also appear encouraging for Democrats.
Turnout has increased in recent reporting periods, including during the weekend.
Wayne, Oakland, Kent and Macomb counties remain particularly important to the statewide picture.
Macomb County will be worth watching closely because of its history of political swings and its importance to statewide election outcomes.
The Michigan forecasting model currently projects a Democratic margin of approximately 6.9 percentage points.
Democrats win 82.7% of the model’s simulations, compared with 17.3% for Republicans.
Interestingly, Michigan’s projected Democratic margin is larger than Georgia’s, but Democrats win a smaller percentage of simulations.
That difference reflects greater uncertainty in the Michigan model’s range of potential outcomes.
Approximately one-quarter of Michigan’s expected electorate has already voted.
Texas Early Voting Shows a Growing Share of Voters Without Recent Primary Participation
Texas is presenting a more complicated picture because of difficulties obtaining consistent statewide voting data.
However, available figures suggest Democratic participation is improving as early voting continues.
Among early in-person voters classified by their previous primary participation, Democratic and Republican primary voters each represent approximately 31%.
The percentage of voters who did not participate in either party’s primary is also increasing.
Among mail voters, approximately 36.2% participated in the Democratic primary, while approximately 35.1% did not participate in either primary.
The growing number of voters without recent primary participation creates uncertainty about which party will benefit.
Unlike Florida, where party registration provides a direct way to examine partisan turnout, Texas requires different methods of estimating voters’ political preferences.
Consequently, these figures should not be interpreted as confirmed Democratic or Republican votes.
How 2026 Compares With Previous Elections
One of the most striking developments is how differently the early voting trends appear to be unfolding compared with 2024.
During the 2024 election, Democratic advantages in several battleground states gradually narrowed as voting continued.
That trend helped signal Republican strength heading into Election Day.
So far in 2026, the opposite pattern appears to be emerging in multiple states.
Democratic participation and forecast advantages are generally holding steady or improving as additional ballots are reported.
Florida is especially significant because the state has frequently resisted the national Democratic trends seen elsewhere.
If Democrats are genuinely competitive in Florida, it could indicate a broader national political environment favorable to the party.
There are historical comparisons worth considering.
The Democratic victories of 2006 and 2008 were significant, but the political conditions leading into those elections were already widely recognized.
The Republican wave of 1994 offers another possible comparison.
That election fundamentally reshaped congressional politics and established political patterns that influenced American elections for decades.
A Democratic wave of comparable magnitude in 2026 could produce unexpected victories in districts that neither party currently considers competitive.
However, the magnitude of any potential wave remains uncertain.
The Final Week Will Be Critical
The early voting figures are giving Democrats legitimate reasons for optimism, particularly in Florida, Georgia and Michigan.
The most important question is whether these participation patterns will continue through the final week and translate into actual votes for Democratic candidates.
Florida Republicans still have time to recover their statewide turnout advantage. Democrats must maintain their current pace, and no-party-affiliation voters could ultimately determine the outcome in competitive races.
Likewise, forecasting models in Georgia and Michigan will change as additional votes are reported.
But one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: Democratic turnout is stronger than many observers expected.
If the current trends continue, the 2026 midterm elections could produce competitive races and unexpected outcomes in places that appeared safely Republican just weeks ago.
The next several days should provide a clearer indication of whether this is simply an unusual early voting pattern or the beginning of a much larger political shift.
Editor’s note: This article is adapted from a political analysis video recorded eight days before Election Day. Turnout figures and forecasts reflect the speaker’s reported data at that time and have not been independently verified. Party registration and primary participation do not establish how voters cast their ballots.
