Grocery bills are straining wallets around the country. That’s no wonder. Food costs are projected to rise by 3.2% in 2025, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
If you’re worried, you’re not alone. The rise in tariffs and prices is one of the concerns referenced in the conference committee’s latest consumer confidence index report, which aims to measure how U.S. consumers feel about the economy. The index fell 7.9 points in April, down 86 points. This is the lowest since the start of the pandemic.
Separately, the Conference Committee, a nonprofit economic research group, said the number of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months has reached a two-year high.
You can’t control the economy, but you can control how much you spend on groceries. Several changes will help you survive price fluctuations and keep your meals interesting and healthy.
Do: Be careful when purchasing large quantities
You may want to start stocking, but if it gets more than you need, you can buy a bulk.
“The best way to save money isn’t to waste food,” says Phil Lempert, a food marketing expert and the face behind swarmarketguru.com.
Lempert recommends getting inventory and creating a list. “Look at what’s in your cupboard, in your freezer and in your fridge,” he says. “Don’t overdo it.”
If you want to make the most of your membership, buy a store that sells large quantities and never expires, such as product cleaning and personal care items.
When it comes to food, shelves stabilising items can also be a good bet. It is full of rice, beans, pasta, oats and flour, and has the foundation of many meals.
You too should think of ways to store your food. Reusing glass jars from pasta sauces and jams and investing in vacuum sealers will help keep your food in longer periods of time.
Don’t: Skip Farmers Market and Farm Stands
Where you live, how many people are in your home, and your dietary restrictions can shape your grocery bill.
This is where the local farmers’ market and farm stands are useful. Writing them down as too expensive or as artisans may be appealing, but that’s not necessarily the case.
Buying local produce at farmers markets and farm stands gives you the opportunity to eat every season that will become important in the coming months.
Lempert predicts that grocery chains may begin to carry smaller assortments in response to tariffs, but he does not consider it a bad thing.
“We just buy things that are in the season,” he says. “They’ll be tastier, they’ll be cheaper and they’ll have more nutrients.”
These foods can last longer than what you buy from a grocery store. At the Farmers Market, there are no intermediaries. Transportation times from the farm to the table are shorter.
If buying organics is important to you, farmers markets may help make them more affordable, says Kamila Elliott, a certified financial planner based in Atlanta.
Using your community can lead to personal relationships and negotiating capabilities. Also, many markets accept the benefits of EBT and SNAP, which can provide more value than grocery chains.
do: Store hops to find the best deals
One extra stop can save you more than you think.
“People are shopping,” Lempert says. “People are willing to go to grocery outlets, grocery outlets, smart finals and other stores now to save money.”
These discounted grocery stores will reduce common brands and fictional costs, giving consumers savings. However, there may be some downsides. There are limited stocks and some people do not accept manufacturer coupons.
To grow your grocery budget, there is a mix of discounts and traditional retailers, so you can create multiple stops to take advantage of the deals and discounts. Check out the weekly flyers and coupons available. Shop strategically and plan routes to save on gas.
Don’t: Assume freshness is always good
The idea that fresh food is always healthier than frozen foods can lead to excessive spending. The reality is that inexpensive frozen foods are usually nutritious. Frozen produce is chosen in peaks and flash flows to retain nutrients.
Cost reductions apply to some frozen meat. For example, Lempert says that buying frozen fish is about 40% cheaper than fresh ones.
Replacing fresh produce and meat from out of season with frozen counterparts is an easy way to save money and doesn’t compete with expiration dates.
How to save on food in any economy
Stock up and plan your meals: Stock up on things already in your pantry and freezer will save you massive savings and prevent unnecessary purchases.
Create a list and stick to it. Shopping without a sense of purpose can lead to excessive spending, impulse purchases and lots of ingredients, but there is no consistent diet. Use the Grocery Lists app to place the list at your fingertips.
Leave your emotions at the door: Check in with yourself before you shop. “If your budget is already tight, you may be hungry, stressed or rushed, you may be likely to be over budget,” says Elaine King, Miami-based CFP.
Snack Budget: When times are tough, it’s hard to cut out all the fun. King suggests using the 80/20 rule. 80% of your grocery budget should go towards nutritious foods.
Don’t underestimate leftovers: Store leftovers, double the recipe, or store a second batch in the freezer is a great way to save time and money. You can have a meal ready for the day, either with a tight schedule or being tempted to spend money on takeaway.
Amanda Baroso writes for Nald Wallet. Email: abarroso@nerdwallet.com.
In this article, How to Drive Your Grocery Budget to a Recession: Do’s and Nots originally appeared in Nerdwallet.
Original issue: May 8, 2025, 3:31pm EDT
