A recent Axios report found that America’s pastoral pipeline is collapsing, with fewer Americans wanting to become pastors.
Enrollment in U.S. Master of Divinity programs affiliated with the Association of Theological Schools (ATS) decreased by 14% from 2020 to 2024.
Catholic seminaries saw a decline in the number of graduate and undergraduate students in the 2024-2025 academic year, according to Georgetown University’s Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate.
According to the ATS Master of Divinity, enrollment of black Protestant students all declined by 31% between 2000 and 2020.
The Associated Press reported that just over 4 in 10 clergy surveyed in fall 2023 had seriously considered leaving their congregation since 2020, according to statistics from the Hartford Institute.
Approximately 15,000 churches will close their doors from 2024 to 2025.
Which regions are being hit hardest by pastor attrition?
Axios reports that in rural and majority-black churches, many pastors work part-time while working in full-time positions elsewhere.
Some researchers who have looked at this data have concluded that Catholic parish closures are also being hurt by the clergy shortage.
Axios reports that some Catholic organizations are struggling to recruit priests, facing “an all-time low in the number of priests allocated to 80 dioceses.”
However, the only group that has not seen a decline is Pentecostal churches.
The Assemblies of God, a sect tied to the charismatic movement and representing the largest faction within Pentecostal churches, has reported an almost 9% increase in church attendance. Of all major Protestant denominations, Assemblies of God leaders have consistently been the most vocal supporters of President Trump. Assemblies of God espouses a doctrine commonly known as the “Gospel of Prosperity,” also known as the “Gospel of Health and Wealth.” It is the belief that God brings financial prosperity, physical healing, and personal happiness to strong faith. It teaches that believers can “name and claim” their desires and that donating money to religious ministries guarantees financial benefits. This doctrine has been widely criticized by other Protestant denominations.
