Florida Governor-Elect Byron Donalds couldn’t recapture the energy that boosted Ron DeSantis in the previous midterm election, and Senator Ashley Moody scraped by Angie Nixon for a narrow win, even though Moody was a heavy favorite.
Who or what is to blame for Florida Republicans reverting to pre-2022 form?
During a post-election discussion hosted by Florida Daily publisher Ed Dean, political commentators Kaitlin Colgate, Tom Gaitens, and NewSouthPolitics.com publisher Matt O’Hern examined why Republicans struggled to repeat the commanding victories they enjoyed in previous election cycles.
The panel debated whether President Donald Trump’s policies, Republican Party leadership, weak voter turnout, campaign spending or economic concerns were primarily responsible for the GOP’s disappointing performance.
Despite Donalds winning Florida’s gubernatorial election against Democrat David Jolly, several panelists questioned why the party failed to secure a more decisive victory in a state where Republicans entered the election with a substantial voter registration advantage.
Republican Leadership Faces Criticism Over Narrow Victories
Dean argued that Republican leaders should be held accountable for failing to deliver larger victories despite significant financial and organizational advantages.
He pointed to competitive races that Republicans had previously expected to win comfortably, along with Democratic gains in local and state legislative contests.
“The Republican Party is a big loser this year. They should have won bigger,” Dean said.
The discussion also highlighted Democratic victories in traditionally Republican areas, including a county commission race in Clay County.
Panelists questioned whether the Republican Party of Florida and national GOP organizations had adequately motivated voters or adapted their campaign strategies to changing political conditions.
Dean suggested that Republican leaders should consider substantial personnel changes to demonstrate accountability and restore confidence among grassroots supporters.
Gaitens acknowledged the need for an internal review, comparing political leadership to the management of a struggling sports organization.
“When you do not achieve your goals, you are subject to review,” Gaitens said.
However, Gaitens also offered a counterargument, noting that Florida Republicans performed better than their counterparts in several other states by retaining major statewide offices.
He suggested that Republican leaders could reasonably argue that their campaign plans encountered unusually difficult national political conditions.
Trump Policies, Affordability and War Become Major Election Issues
A central theme of the discussion was whether the Republican Party’s difficulties were primarily organizational or driven by voter dissatisfaction with national issues.
Panelists identified the economy, affordability concerns and the war involving Iran as major political challenges facing Republican candidates.
Gaitens described the election as a potential “perfect storm” in which several unfavorable conditions converged.
Other participants argued that Republican campaign organizations should have anticipated those concerns and adjusted their messaging and voter outreach accordingly.
O’Hern emphasized the challenges national Republican organizations will face as they prepare for future elections, particularly in the South and across the Sun Belt.
“How would you like to have any job with any national Republican committee at this point having to plan ahead for the next two years?” O’Hern asked, referring to the considerable time, money and resources Republicans may need to devote to rebuilding their political strength.
The discussion highlighted a potentially damaging turnout pattern: less enthusiastic Republicans staying home while motivated Democrats and dissatisfied independent voters participated.
Panelists warned that the same combination could threaten Republican candidates in future elections if the party fails to address the issues motivating voters.
Donalds Campaign Questioned Over Spending and Results
Donalds’ successful gubernatorial campaign also faced criticism from several panelists who argued that its substantial financial resources failed to produce the overwhelming victory Republicans had anticipated.
Dean questioned whether Donalds’ campaign consultants delivered sufficient results, particularly given the Republican Party’s statewide voter registration advantage.
Panelists discussed polling throughout the campaign, arguing that Donalds’ eventual performance was relatively consistent with some earlier projections rather than evidence of significant momentum generated by campaign spending.
O’Hern compared the situation to criticisms of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign, suggesting that spending large amounts of money does not necessarily translate into additional voter support.
“They spent a lot of money to not move the needle,” O’Hern said.
Dean argued that Donalds’ polling numbers remained relatively stagnant despite extensive spending and campaign activity.
The panel also debated whether another Republican gubernatorial candidate could have performed better in the general election.
Dean criticized Trump’s influence over the Republican nomination process and questioned whether the party had prioritized political loyalty over broader electoral appeal.
He suggested that Republican Jay Collins might have secured a larger general election victory than Donalds, although that assessment was hypothetical.
Ron DeSantis Emerges as a Political Winner
While much of the discussion focused on Republican shortcomings, the panel identified outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as one of the election cycle’s biggest political winners.
Dean argued that DeSantis benefited from his carefully timed involvement in the campaign and his eventual support for Amendment 3, the property tax measure approved by Florida voters.
The panel noted that DeSantis had initially pursued a different approach to property tax relief before lawmakers advanced an alternative proposal.
Despite reservations about the final amendment, DeSantis ultimately endorsed the measure in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Gaitens argued that the governor’s political instincts helped position him favorably for a potential presidential campaign in 2028.
“He sets himself up beautifully for 2028,” Gaitens said.
Panelists also suggested DeSantis could claim credit for helping Republicans retain control of Florida while the party experienced more serious setbacks elsewhere.
Dean argued that DeSantis emerged from the election in a stronger political position because Republicans could point to Florida as one of the states where the party successfully defended its major statewide offices.
Calls for Changes at the Republican National Committee
The discussion extended beyond Florida to the leadership of the Republican National Committee and Republican congressional leaders.
Dean questioned whether RNC Chairman Joe Gruters and Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power should face consequences for the party’s performance.
Although acknowledging his personal respect for several Republican officials, Dean argued that political organizations must demonstrate a willingness to change leadership when expectations are not met.
“In the private sector, Joe would be fired right now,” Dean said of Gruters.
Gaitens responded that Republican leaders at every level deserved a performance review but questioned whether organizational changes alone would have altered the results.
“When you do not achieve your goals, you are subject to review,” Gaitens said.
Colgate agreed that a leadership shakeup could help rebuild confidence among Republican volunteers and activists.
She questioned whether grassroots supporters would be motivated to return if the same leadership continued using strategies that had failed to achieve the party’s electoral goals.
“We need a shakeup. Maybe new ideas, new perspective, new experience. We need that,” Colgate said.
The panel also criticized congressional Republican leaders Mike Johnson and John Thune, questioning whether they had done enough to advance the party’s legislative priorities.
However, the participants did not reach a consensus on whether replacing Republican leaders would have substantially changed the election results.
Was It Poor Leadership or a Perfect Storm of Political Issues?
One of the strongest disagreements during the discussion involved whether Republican leadership or unfavorable national conditions deserved more blame.
Gaitens argued that the party faced extraordinary political headwinds, including economic uncertainty, affordability concerns and foreign policy issues.
“I don’t think this was a party problem. I still think this was an issue problem,” Gaitens said.
He described the circumstances as a “perfect storm” that could have undermined Republican candidates regardless of their campaign strategies.
Colgate acknowledged those challenges but argued that Republican organizations should have changed their approach in response to the political environment.
She suggested that using traditional campaign strategies during an unusual election cycle left the party poorly positioned to respond to voters’ concerns.
The panel also discussed what participants described as a Republican nightmare scenario: less enthusiastic Republicans failing to vote, highly motivated Democrats turning out and frustrated independent voters supporting Democratic candidates.
The participants warned that similar turnout patterns could threaten Republicans in future elections if economic concerns and campaign messaging are not addressed.
Trump Faces Criticism Over Republican Candidate Selection
President Donald Trump’s influence over Republican candidates and campaign messaging became another major point of discussion.
Dean argued that Trump’s endorsements helped determine Republican nominees but did not necessarily improve their appeal to general election voters.
He specifically criticized the selection of Donalds as Florida’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, suggesting the party might have performed better with a different candidate.
Gaitens also raised concerns about Republican candidate selection in other states, including South Carolina and Texas.
The discussion extended to Trump’s economic policies, including tariffs and federal involvement in private companies.
Dean argued that some Republican voters had expected a return to Trump’s first-term policy priorities but were disappointed by the direction of his second administration.
Participants also questioned whether Republican congressional leaders had been sufficiently independent in advancing legislative priorities.
The broader concern was that loyalty to Trump had become a central consideration in Republican politics, potentially limiting the party’s ability to evaluate candidates and policy decisions on their individual merits.
Republicans Warned Against Relying on Old Political Arguments
As the discussion concluded, panelists warned that Republicans could no longer rely on campaign messages centered primarily on criticizing former President Joe Biden or labeling Democratic opponents as socialists.
Dean argued that Republicans needed to recognize the limits of those arguments and focus more directly on the concerns influencing voters’ everyday lives.
He suggested that blaming Biden for current problems had become a less effective political strategy because Republicans controlled the federal government and were increasingly being judged on their own performance.
The panel also criticized conservative media outlets and political commentators who, in their view, failed to adequately recognize the warning signs facing Republican candidates.
O’Hern and other participants emphasized that campaign experience, realistic polling analysis and willingness to acknowledge unfavorable political conditions are essential to developing effective election strategies.
The broader conclusion was that winning elections in Florida may no longer be enough to demonstrate the party’s organizational strength.
Although Republicans maintained control of the governor’s office and other key positions, the relatively competitive results raised questions about whether the landslide victories of previous election cycles can be repeated.
For Republicans looking ahead to 2028 and beyond, the panel suggested that addressing affordability, improving campaign messaging, rebuilding grassroots enthusiasm and evaluating party leadership will be critical to restoring the party’s once-dominant electoral margins.
The discussion underscored a central challenge facing Republicans in Florida: holding onto political power is not necessarily the same as maintaining political dominance.
