JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Florida first lady Casey DeSantis narrows down Rep. Byron Donald in the early stages of the 2026 Republican primary, according to a new poll released Wednesday by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (PORAL).
A survey of 797 registered Republican voters found Desantis showed 32% support, with a difference within the poll error just before 29% Donald. Eight percent of respondents said they would support Rep. Matt Gaetz, while 18% remained undecided.
DeSantis leads among women, Hispanic voters, especially women in northern and central Florida, and voters under the age of 65. Meanwhile, Donald has gained stronger support from the men who voted in the 2024 primary, voters over 65, people from South Florida, and Republicans. Notably, of the 2024 major voters, Donald has 15 points ahead of DeSantis.
“Desantis was the early frontline when I asked this fall last fall,” Dr. Michael Binder said. “But Trump’s support and tightening timeline for Donald changed the race and made him throw statistical.”
Policy concerns among GOP voters also appear to be changing. Property insurance was the biggest issue in the poll, with 20% of respondents being cited, followed by housing costs (16%), immigration (15%), economy, employment and inflation (13%). When combined, asset-related concerns account for almost half of all responses.
The favorable ratings of leading politicians remain high among Florida Republicans. Former President Donald Trump was seen favorably by 82% of respondents, while Gov. Ron DeSantis enjoys a positive rating of 83%. Casey Desantis holds a 57% favor rating compared to 43% Donald. However, 40% of respondents said they had never heard of Donald, but only 19% said the same about First Lady.
When asked about the state-run Hope Florida Foundation, a project closely related to Casey DeSantis, 63% said they were new to it. Only 23% saw it positively. Dr. Sean Fredrier, a professor of political science at UNF, noted that the program’s low profile might help Desantis, but warned that links to recent scandals could hurt her campaign.
Regarding immigration policy, the Florida Republicans have expressed strong support for strict enforcement. 75% approved current national immigration enforcement, including detention and deportation, while 75% supported sweeping of local immigrants. Nevertheless, only 23% of lawful US residents found it acceptable to be deported by mistake.
The recently opened immigration detention centre known as “Alligator Alcatraz” received 65% approval. Support was low among Hispanic voters, younger respondents, and first-generation immigrants.
The vote also looked into views on tax policy. You will be asked if you support the abolition of property taxes for Florida homeowners. Despite knowing that these funds are heading towards services such as schools and law enforcement, 63% supported the idea, including the majority of young voters.
“The Floridians on the right, especially the right, don’t really like to pay taxes,” Binder said. “Even if the outcome is spoken about, a solid majority would like to abolish property taxes.”
Respondents were also asked about the 2026 constitutional amendment proposal to legalize recreational marijuana. Despite previous polls showing general GOP support for legalization, 58% said they disagree, while only 40% said they would vote for the revision.
“This inconsistency could be the result of confusion or lingering skepticism from the state’s recent campaign against similar voting measures in 2024,” Binder said.
Methodology
Voting was conducted between July 14th and July 22nd, 2025 using a mixed method approach of telephone interviews and online surveys. The sample included 797 active registered Republican voters across Florida, with an error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The results were weighted by education, geography, race, gender, age and party registration to reflect state Republican voters.
UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab is a nonpartisan research and research center and is a member of the Aapor Transparency Initiative.
