“Indonesia is unlikely to agree to a Russian base, but it is very likely that Russian aircraft will be able to use the facility,” Michael Schubidge said.
The Australian Labor Minister should not be too quick to dismiss the rumble that Russian aircraft are based in the Pacific region, noting one defense analyst.
In mid-April, Janes, a well-known Defense and Intelligence publication, allegedly contacted the Indonesian government to seek permission to house long-range aircraft at Manua Air Base, about 1,300 kilometers north of Darwin, Australia.
The report urged the Labour Government to contact Indonesia for confirmation as Indonesia’s defense facilities are relatively close to Australia.
On April 15, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Mahles and the Minister of Defense said they had spoken with his Indonesian counterpart, Shefrey Schhamsoedin.
“He (Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin) told me on the clearest possible terms. The report on the outlook for a Russian aircraft operated from Indonesia is simply not true,” Mares told reporters.
Nevertheless, the Defense Minister did not comment on whether the Kremlin had made the request.
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Meanwhile, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed his opposition to the presence of Russian troops in the direct region.
“We have a position to stand with Ukraine, and we see it as an authoritarian leader who has broken international law that is attacking the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state,” he said.
Albanese also said Australia currently has a “unprecedented” relationship with Indonesia.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton, who first issued the alarm, said Australia did not welcome Putin’s presence in the region, but he called on the Labour government to explain the situation.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a visit to Flinders Medical Centre on the fourth day of the 2025 federal election campaign held in Adelaide, Australia on April 1, 2025. AAP Image/Lukas Coch
The Australian Government is missing out on the big picture: Experts
Michael Schubridge, founder and director of Australian Strategic Analysis, said the focus on military bases misses the big picture of how Indonesia-Russia ties are growing.
“(Defense Minister) Marles’ cast iron ensures nothing is happening. And what we’re hearing from Marles is based on a call the government has been rushing after discovering things through the media.”
“His fierce denial only makes you see the broad issues he’s not addressing. As Shakespeare said, “He’s protesting too much,” Chebridge told the Epoch Times.
Shoebridge also said that the report should be taken seriously given the credibility of Janes’ publication.
Indonesian President Prabobo Suboant has moved to strengthen relations between Jakarta and Moscow after being elected in 2024.
“It’s unlikely that Indonesia will agree to a Russian base, but it’s very likely that Russian aircraft will be able to use the facility, especially if Indonesia has the benefit of joint training as part of that,” he said.
“Indonesian troops already have a Russian military system like the Skoy Jet Fighters, and Prabowo’s history in the Indonesian army probably means that he likes and wants more.”
Sheebridge said the focus should not be too much on the “base” issue.
Russia and Indonesia’s increasing cooperation
In July 2024, during the presidential election at the time, Prabobo traveled to Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin.
At the meeting, Prabowo called Russia an “great friend” of Indonesia and said his future administration hopes to strengthen cooperation on defense, energy and education.
This confirmed the “friendship” between the countries following Prabowo’s visit to China several months ago.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) will shake hands with Indonesian President Prabowo Sabiant (R) in Moscow, Russia on July 31, 2024. Maxim Shemetov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
Most recently, Russian Security Council chief Sergei Kuzgetovich Shuigu visited Indonesia in February 2025 to discuss security with Prabowo and his Minister of Defense.
“There is a clear and true pattern here that new Indonesian leaders are working proactively and promptly to deepen military cooperation with Russia, welcome this and tackle the same purpose,” Chebridge said.
“Of course, there are limitations on how much priority Putin will be given to this and attention can give due to the overwhelming priorities of his war in Ukraine, but Putin has nevertheless been consistent in growing Russian military operations in some of us in the world.”
“So, despite saying that the security agreement we signed with Prabowo last August is a historic deepening of Australia-Indonesia’s defense relations, Russia and Indonesia are working together even more.
So Schubilridge said he was concerned about the significance of stronger relations between Russia and Indonesia in the region.
“Albanese and Dutton say Russia is not welcome in some of us in the world, but the unfortunate fact is that Russia is much welcome in Jakarta,” he said.
Moscow and Beijing are also tied to “unlimited” partnerships that suggest support for each other’s military ambitions.
Ukraine finally took action against Beijing by sanctioning three Chinese companies to supply arms to Russian troops. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long been secretly supporting Russia with supplies and trade.
Russian ambassador opposes Australia
In a letter to the editor-in-chief of the Jakarta Post, Russian Indonesian ambassador Sergei Truchenov did not confirm whether Moscow was attempting to house Russian aircraft in Indonesia.
However, he said that what happened at Manua Air Force Base “has nothing to do” with Australia.
Indonesian soldiers are guarding the air forces near fighter jets at an air base in Branbintan, Indonesia on May 19, 2019. Chaideer Mahyuddin/AFP via Getty Images
Furthermore, Tolchenov argued that the challenges to stability in the Pacific region are likely to come from the large-scale military revolving deployment from “non-regional states” in Australian soils.
“What’s particularly surprising is the plans to deploy US medium-range missiles in Australia and the acquisition under the hearing trilateral partnership by Australia’s Royal Submarine Navy,” he writes.
The ambassador also said military cooperation is a “essential part” of Russia-Indonesia relations.
“This kind of cooperation is intended to strengthen both sides’ defense capabilities, not intended for third countries, and does not pose a threat to security in the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.
“Canberra’s national interests cannot extend to the territory of a nearby sovereign state that pursues positive and independent policies.”
However, Sheebridge warned that there is “the real whim of Solomon and China’s security contracts” from current engagement.
“When it first came to light from media reports, it wasn’t what our government knew in the first place, and the focus was on denial and whether there was a Chinese military base there,” he said.
“But that missed the point too. The agreement has been signed, and as a result, China and Solomon’s security cooperation is continuing to deepen. As this trajectory continues, the path from Solomon to the Chinese military is realistic.”
