The value of the house has plummeted in this area near Tampa Bay. what happened?

Angie Ramos is concerned.

Coldwell Banker Realtor has five lists that I’ve been sitting for several months. The interest of buyers is at least. And the stock market was fierce.

“We’re overflowing with stock,” Ramos said.

What she is experiencing is not uncommon along the Suncoast.

Housing values ​​in Sarasota and Manatee counties are falling faster than almost anywhere in the country, showing a sharp reversal in one of the country’s most overheated housing markets, raising concerns about the broader economic health of the Japan Coast.

Sarasota County has fallen by 7% over the past year, while manatees have approached 5%, according to the latest data from the Zillow Home Value Index. The value of the home in Desoto County was the most decreasing in the area, recording a 1% decline. According to Zillow, the index represents the “typical” home values ​​for a region by calculating the weighted average of the middle third of the house.

Nearby Charlotte County recorded the sharpest drop of any large county across the country (a large county with over 50,000 residents), but the Sarasota and Manatee trends are part of the decline in the same region, in contrast to many other US things that have continued to flatten or rise in value.

Zillow data shows that counties across the United States have on average increased home value by 4.5% over the past year. Among the larger counties, values ​​rose by 3.6% on average

This figure shows a dramatic change just two years ago when the Japan Coast was ranked among the hottest housing markets in the United States. Double-digit home prices surged every year between 2020 and 2022 as buyers across the country gathered in the region during the pandemic-era mobile boom.

Well, after three years of quick appreciation, the market is back.

Chris Jones, an economist at the University of South Florida and founder of Florida Economic Advisor, warns of unsustainable price growth since 2022, when the local housing value rose more than 30% in a year.

“We’ve basically seen prices go out of control over the last seven or eight years,” Jones said. “And as you know, we have not had a bubble like this since the bubble before the 2008-2009 market collapse.”

Unlike the crash driven by predatory lending and financial speculation, today’s slump stems from a mix of affordability fatigue, economic uncertainty and changes in buyer behavior.

The area is probably more vulnerable than most, Jones said, as much housing demand is tied to what he called “lifetime wealth” and investment. This includes not only retirees, but also seasonal residents and buyers who rely on the strength of their portfolio rather than pay.

“One of the first things that happen is when consumers aren’t feeling good about the future,” he said.

Buyers retreat and sellers narrow

Recent data from the historically residential and bullish association of Sarasota and Manatee Realtors confirms what real estate agents on the ground are already seeing.

“All real estate types have seen higher inventory levels and create more options for buyers, while sales activities have slowed compared to the previous year,” the RASM report said. “Home prices showed signs of softening, with median and average selling prices dropping across most segments.”

This kind of market stagnation (sellers are still priced higher, but buyers are increasingly hesitant – often marking the early stages of a wider revision, economists say. And inflation concerns, rising mortgage rates, volatile consumer confidence, rarely suggesting a quick turnaround.

A national survey from the University of Michigan found that consumer confidence was hit sharply, and sentiment fell in the third month of February. The index fell by 12%. It has been the most sharp decline since the beginning of the pandemic.

“In particular, two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next year, which is the best reading since 2009,” says a survey from the consumer university.

Jones said he doesn’t expect consumers to feel more certain about the economy any time soon, as President Donald Trump’s tariff policies inject more chaos into the photographs.

Condo Law Fallout adds fuel to fire

Alex Krumm, former president of RASM and broker/owner at Nexthome Excellence, says some of the local housing struggles may be exaggerated, but they are driven primarily by distortions in the condominium market.

After the fatal collapse of surfside condominium buildings in 2021, Florida lawmakers passed a drastic reform law that required three-storey condominium buildings to undergo structural inspections and maintain fully funded reserves. Many older condominium communities, particularly coastal communities, are now facing a massive assessment to cover years of postponed maintenance.

It urges some condo owners to sell at discounts, scaring potential buyers.

Krumm said the new law “puts thumbs on scale,” and said it was cutting the prices of condominiums and distorting the entire home.

“It’s really a two-market story,” the veteran real estate agent said.

A price drop may provide some hope for affordability, especially for first-time home buyers, but also poses risks, especially for those who have bought near the peak. Homeowners who have purchased over the past two years may find themselves with fewer assets than mortgages than situations that could lead to financial burdens and forced sales.

Local governments could also feel the impact. Property tax revenues are directly linked to property value, and if the valuation drops, local governments could be forced to adjust their budgets or raise tax rates to compensate.

And while many longtime residents may be happy to get through the dip, new transplants and investors may tend to reduce their losses.

It creates volatility – not just in the housing market, but also in the region’s entire economy where construction, real estate and related services remain the major factors in employment.

Is the bottom nearby?

Despite the pessimistic data, some people in the industry believe the floor is visible.

“You can always know that the bottom is coming as obscene transactions are beginning to pass. “You can tell the top in the same way. And we’re currently looking at those transactions in real estate.”

Still, there is no consensus on when the tide will turn. Most relies on national economic trends, interest rate policies and buyer trust. If consumer sentiment remains weak, prices may continue to slide for a while.

Ramos, who became a real estate agent about six years ago, said it was the first time he had been shocked in the market.

She doubled her marketing efforts as the buyer pool was stagnant. She held more open houses, sent out more flyers, and posted about her property on social media.

“It was tough. There were no crystal balls,” she said. “People are afraid now.”

Despite her concerns and challenging market conditions, she also lends banks to long-term trends.

“What’s gone down has to go back,” she said. “That’s always the case.”

The story was originally published by Suncoast Searchlight, a non-profit newsroom that provides investigative journalism to Sarasota, Manatee and DeSoto counties. For more information, please visit suncoastsearchlight.org.