When he meets military representatives in Kunming, the rare absence of the military vice-chairman along with Xi promotes speculation about his future.
Explanation
Will Xi Jinping ever resign as leader? The issue has plagued Chinese politics since 2018, when the communist regime abolished the deadline for the presidency and vice president in order to become the first leader to secure a third term in 2022.
Recently, XI’s prospects for an imminent retirement have gained new traction on social media following rumors that Xi has come to the forefront of concepts, along with speculation that the administration’s recent military cleanup indicates that Xi has lost its grip of power.
This raises the question: Will XI retire in the fourth entire session of CCP?
I don’t think this possibility can be ruled out based on recent events.
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One of the most important indications pointing to the possibility of XI’s decision to retire was the rare absence of the military vice-chairman when XI met with military representatives in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province in the southwestern region.
According to CCP protocols, if XI (as the chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)) is thinking of the army, the vice-chairman will usually accompany him, and another vice-chairman will stay in Beijing, highlighting his authority and ensuring preparation for an emergency.
Over the past three years, XI has been accompanied by at least one Vice-Chairperson for CMC during military inspections.
For example, on December 4, 2024, CMC vice-president Zhang Youxia and his Weidong were among those who accompanied Xi during an inspection of the Beijing Information Support Force. On December 20, 2024, he accompanied XI to inspect the Macau troops. On January 24th, both Chang and he accompanied Xi on a Northern Theatre Command inspection. Then, on March 20, Chang accompanied XI to inspect the troops stationed in Changsha, the capital of South Hunan Province.
However, China’s state media agent said during his visit to XI’A in March, Chang and he were particularly absent.
This absence could indicate that XI has lost control of the army. If he loses control over the military, it suggests that he may have lost control over the CCP’s overall power structure, and ejection from his position may be imminent.
Xi has not made any official announcements to retire, but it appears that the true power of the CCP has left him.
Based on current circumstances, XI can formally announce his retirement in the fourth overall session.
Some high-level sources say that military force has already been transferred to Zhang and Xi is simply the honorable chairman of the CMC.
The absence of both military vice-chairmen during XI’s recent recent meeting in Kunming somewhat supports this theory.
However, other analysts say it is unlikely that XI will leave the company in the fourth overall session. Instead, they suggest that XI may gradually arrange a transition for the next few years, perhaps before the 21st Congress in 2027.
If a debate about power regulation emerges during the fourth overall session, it is more likely that the focus will be on strengthening the “collective leadership” mechanism rather than directly announcing XI’s retirement.
The views expressed in this article are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the epoch era.
