News Analysis
Mark Carney has been sworn in as the new prime minister, and now the question is whether he will call an early election, and if so, when will it happen?
Carney is Canada’s first prime minister and elected prime minister, facing opposition parties with the intention of defeating the government in the midst of a trade dispute with the United States.
The Prime Minister is about to face voters to win a seat in the House and get a stronger mandate to solidify his legitimacy. According to several experts who spoke to the Epoch era, it may be the best time to do so, to capitalize on the victories of his liberal leadership.
After being sworn in at Rideau Hall on March 14th, Carney did not reveal any specific plans for the election, but he dropped hints that the announcement was approaching.
Canadians should “certainly expect to go to the poll by November,” Carney told reporters. The law requires the latest federal elections in October.
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He added that there will be “other news in the coming days to ensure that we were strong at the time with the necessary duties.”
Carney refused to say which riding he was going to run when he asked reporters if he would consider doing so in Alberta given that he was not represented by the Cabinet.
Kearney was born in the Northwest region and grew up in Edmonton. He noted that the new Minister of Transport Krishstia Freeland, who is originally from Alberta, represents Toronto’s riding.
“We were able to show you many examples of the Pan-Canadian nature of this cabinet,” he said. Kearney’s new cabinet includes 24 ministers, including himself, who has diminished from 37 under his predecessor Justin Trudeau.
Momentum
Charles Bird, a liberal strategist and principal at the public service company Earnscliffe Strategies, said Carney cabinets could be in a very short period of time.
“We were able to join the campaign in about a week,” Byrd said in an interview, adding that there are “every reason to think about,” Carney would ask the governor to dissolve the legislature before it ends on March 24th. This means that the general election will take place in late April or early May.
Trudeau compared Congress when he announced his intention to resign on January 6, citing the need for a “reset.” The Liberal Party leadership race took place during the suspension of Congress, and the party steadily gained positions in the vote, filling the previous wide gap of around 20 points with conservatives.
Byrd mentioned voting as an important factor that can influence Carney and call elections in short order.
“Recent polls suggest that liberals are experiencing something between the rise and the surge,” he said. This could be attributed to the views among voters that Carney is in his own position to handle the Trump administration, considering his previous role as a central banker in Canada and England.
The US administration imposed two sets of tariffs on Canada this month. One was related to border security and fentanyl trafficking concerns, while the other imposed on steel and aluminum. Canada is available with Surtax, targeting US products worth $600 billion.
timing
Stephen Reedle, a political commentator from the Jean-Cretien era and former president of the Liberal Party, said that liberals would also like to run an early campaign, but for another reason.
“I think they want to re-start the campaign there before people really know the new prime minister,” Riedl said in an interview.
Riedl said Carney is currently “unknown” and has “a certain charm.” However, he added that Carney is not doing well as a “retail politician,” and that he made some mistakes by defeating his achievements during the campaign.
The Liberals know that, Riedl said, and that’s “why do they want him to lift him up quickly, do this again and we can squeal.”
On the campaign trail, Carney said he worked with then Minister of Finance Paul Martin to balance his budget, but he was not working in public services when Martin reached zero deficit in 1998.
The Conservatives also criticized him during a campaign where he was not on the Brookfield Asset Management Committee when he decided to move his headquarters to the US, but the letter he signed as chairman of the committee showed he encouraged shareholders to help restructure. Carney then said he should be more “accurate” with his words that he wasn’t with the company at the time.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, predicts that the Liberal Party will try to capitalize on momentum by calling for an election soon.
Wiseman said the Liberal Party would avoid reopening Parliament and face a no-confidence vote from the opposition.
“If Congress reunited, (Karney) would be defeated, and that would be humiliating for the government,” Wiseman said in an interview.
Wiseman said to Kearney, unless the NDP tries to make a deal with Kearney, “Don’t think you don’t want to make a deal, because the Liberals feel they have momentum right now and they think they can go to the poll and continue.”
Wiseman said the moment when he dissolves Congress and sets an election day was contingent with the Liberals.
