Who will run for mayor of Tampa? The race will be in two years shape | row

Is Bob Buckhorn running again? Can he win?

These two questions dominate the political parlor game in Tampa two years after the race to succeed Mayor Jane Custer, who took office in 2027.

First, answer a simple question.

The backhorn, who preceded the casters who worked from 2011 to 2019, did not participate in the race. However, he openly explored bids for several months, advocating the finances and message of another campaign to war. “I’m very leaning towards doing that,” Buckhorn told me the other day. “The chances I won’t run are pretty slim.” The only decision left is when he pulls the trigger. Expect something soon.

Of course, running and winning are two different things. So let’s break that too. How does the backhorn compare to other parts of the field? And will Tampa voters be sour after taking the former mayor?

Two candidates have applied for the mayoral race. entrepreneur Alan Henderson and real estate broker Julie McGill who lost the 2024 race for the Hillsboro County Board of Education. Neither of them have fleshed out the agenda or have really done a round. Certainly, it’s early, but they need to pay great attention to money and competition.

The backhorn entry could dampen the candidate’s field given his name ID, his inauguration experience and his vast political connections. As a former city council member and mayor, he oversaw incredible growth, infusing downtown’s new homes and commercial vibrancy, setting the stage for a vast remake of the West Tampari Barside district. He is sharp, focused on the stumps, and is a public personality, exuding the confidence that voters want to see in their leaders. The backhorn becomes a magnet for approval easily.

City Council member Bill Carlson is also paying attention to the race. As Carlson will be out of his Southernpa Council seat in 2027, timing will work, and his profile at City Hall will keep him in the public eye for the next two years. Carlson is the president of a Florida-based public relations company and has long been actively and proactively working to promote economic development, civic issues and the arts throughout Tampa Bay. He pays tribute to his strong neighbourhood connections and providing homework and service to his constituents. Carlson also represents the biggest foundation of Tampa voters, giving him a stepping stone as the campaign evolves.

This matchup brings two powerful personalities with distinctly different records and a vision of mayor’s governance into race. And even pure theatres are because the two hate each other. The backhorn finds Carlson Pettish, who believes the backhorn is too well established. Several other potential candidates have been messing around with their wings and have been able to announce this summer.

That brings us to the second question: Will voters take the former mayor?

If you are asking about voter fatigue, I have never seen those feelings expressed in the Tampa City election. Voters in Tampa prefer to have known entities in their elected offices. Dick Greco was mayor in two rounds that began again in the late 1960s and 1990s. Councillor Charlie Miranda has been in office for decades. Council members became mayors, county commissioners and state representatives. Officials from other local governments have also won elections for decades. Certainly, current positions have perks. But Tampa also has a small town culture that is not negative, but more friendly.

The bigger question here is how big the mayor’s field will be. If Buckhorn and Carlson announce, I think they’ll scare other candidates. But anything happens when four or five celebrities get into the race. Many urged Greco not to seek a third term as mayor in 2011, but he pretty much pulled it away. The Buckhorn beat him with just 383 votes (out of nearly 42,000 cast), and the Buckhorn hit first-place primary finisher Rose Ferrita to win 63% of the votes.

The Buckhorn was on the other side of the coin a decade ago, but in 2003 it lost the mayor’s spill point to 686 votes (out of over 50,000 cast). Simply put, the number of mayoral candidates in 2027 will be as important as the candidates themselves. In busy areas, it’s best to be everyone’s second choice.

As issues and issues of Tampa change over time, all elections will differ. From what I’ve seen recently, affordability, flood control, roads and other basics are becoming more and more central. This could be a breakout election for a more progressive voice, or will Tampa’s history of risk aversion be preserved? Or is it something more subtle offshore, like a fresh face from the private sector?

It may seem like two years away, but this race unfolds in an instant.