David Jolly last month played a round of state and national media and announced he would run for governor of Florida in 2026. It’s no one’s guess whether a former Pinellas County council member is 52 years old who can win. But he looks clearly on the hurdles and is comfortable armed with a wise agenda. He certainly tests voters’ appetites for seriousness and politeness.
Jolie was a longtime aide to Pinellas Republican Rep. CW Bill Young after the death of his former boss in 2013 and ultimately won the election to Young’s seat. Jolie lost her seat to former Republican governor Charlie Christ, who ran as a Democrat, almost three years later. By then, Jolie had exacerbated Donald Trump’s Republican transformation. He left GOP in 2018 and is a member of the independent. Over the past few months he has kicked tires on the governor’s bid, traveled the state and attended City Hall. Jolie announced in April that he had changed his registration to Democrats and launched the governor’s campaign on Thursday.
It’s too early to tell you how this race will unfold. Governor Ron DeSantis is praised, so Republicans also choose the party’s standard officer. Jolly, not surprisingly, is still in the formation stage of reaching out and making connections. We should not underestimate what is necessary to run for the governor in a large and diverse state with clear constituencies and expensive media markets. However, Jolie’s moderate agenda and attitude could bring a new dimension to this race. So here are some early observations.
His pitch: Affordable Florida. Republicans are doing well under Gov. Ron DeSantis by highlighting red meat issues such as immigration and political interference in schools. Jolie feels a reset in Florida after punishing years of storms and increasing the costs of housing, insurance and utilities. He proposes various reforms targeting pocket books. From creating a state catastrophic fund, Florida students can have better access to state universities to ease premiums. That agenda has been squared in a recent poll by Florida Business Group-related industries. This has discovered that insurance, housing and everyday costs are the best issues for Florida voters.
His appeal: Crossing the aisle. In Congress, Jolie was a relatively moderate Republican working across the aisle. The composition of his district required that, but it also reflected Jolie’s nature. He builds a “coalition” as governor, rejecting the left/right extremes and broader extremes, from investment in public schools and high-tech industries to further promote tourism and agriculture. Florida can pursue economic growth and he can maintain that he can tackle income disparities, housing shortages, climate-related threats to people, infrastructure and natural resources. “I’ve been out of politics long enough to tell the truth,” Jolie told me this week. “Some of our leaders escalate the problem rather than escalating them. We need to escalate the division.”
His challenge: There are many. Jolie’s biggest challenge is his own party. The latest state figures show that registered Republicans in Florida are about 1.2 million above Democrats, indicating that Republicans account for 40% of Florida’s strong voting base of 14 million. Democratic candidates will need the support of 26% of Florida voters identifying as independents, in addition to stronger voter turnout from the party, which makes up 31% of voters. Democrats have to rebuild their party’s organization and brand identity almost overnight. Jolie also needs to break through a new media spec that has become a spigot of bias and disinformation. Jolie can sell his message, and does he have time?
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There are at least other factors that can be distracting. For example, his enemies certainly equate the cheerful with Christ. Both were from Pinellas, both retained high offices, both switched parties and ran for governor. That’s a superficial comparison. The two have unique career paths and their identity as Democrats has evolved much differently. But this is Florida in 2025. Get ready for these 30-second hit ads. This is mean but effective. At the very least, Jolie has to convince the Democrats that he is truly one with them. He may have easier time than Christo. After all, Jolie’s attitude towards crime did not earn him the nickname “Chang Gang Charlie.”
I’m happy to be able to predict a contested governor race with some well-defined choices for Floridians. Jolly’s entry promises one of the entities.
