By Edith M. Lederer
UN (AP) – The UN on Thursday predicts global economic growth will slow this year and next year, pointing to the impact of a surge in US tariffs and rising trade tensions.
The United Nations economists also cited the unstable geopolitical landscape and the threat of rising production costs, supply chain disruptions and financial turbulence.
“There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the air these days,” said Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis and policy at the United Nations Ministry of Economic and Social Affairs.
“It was a tense time for the global economy,” he told reporters and began forecasting middle-aged life. “In January this year, we were expecting a steady growth of two years. Since then, our outlook has declined and has had significant volatility across many dimensions.”
The United Nations is currently forecasting global economic growth of 2.4% this year and 2.5% next year. This is down 0.4 percentage points per year from January’s forecast. Last year, the global economy rose 2.9%.
Mukherjee said the slowdown has affected most countries and regions, but the worst hits are the poorest and poorest developed countries, whose growth outlook has fallen from 4.6% to 4.1% since January.
“That leads to billions of losses in economic output in the most disadvantaged countries,” he said.
UN reports predict that developing countries around the world will also suffer.
He says that the US economic growth is currently projected to drop significantly from 2.8% last year to 1.6% this year.
China’s growth is expected to slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.6% this year, as a result of modest consumer sentiment, disruptions in export-oriented manufacturers and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector.
The European Union’s growth is projected to remain the same this year, just as last year – just 1%, according to the report, saying net exports are weak and trade barriers are high. The UK’s economic growth at 1.1% last year is projected to fall to 0.9%.
The weakening of trade, slower investment and lower commodity prices are projected to erode growth in other major developing economies, including Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
India continues to be one of the fastest growing large economies in the world, but UN forecasts show that its growth will fall from 7.1% this year in 2024 to 6.3%.
The United Nations’ global economic growth forecast is lower than the International Monetary Fund.
In a more positive note, Mukherjee said the UN hopes bilateral negotiations will lead to lower tariffs, but he said he will not return to levels before President Donald Trump’s February announcement.
Nevertheless, Mukherjee said resolving uncertainty will help individuals and businesses advance their economic decisions, which will have a positive impact on the global economy.
Original issue: May 15th, 2025, 8:01pm EDT
