Hurricane predictors risk losing important tools due to military concerns over cybersecurity in satellite systems of long embarrassment. This is the latest possibility in the Trump administration’s federal weather science program.
After criticism and questions from numerous forecasting experts, the Department of Defense announced Monday it was postponing the cut-off of critical satellite imaging for at least a month.
Unless that deadline has been extended or military concerns are resolved, predictors have painted accurate pictures of the storm overnight, saying forecasts could delay more than six hours on forecasts, or even delay clocks and warnings to people on the stormy path.
“There’s no alternative to this image. It affects certain types of predictions from the National Hurricane Center,” said Franklin, who retired from the Hurricane Center in 2017. “This is a big deal.”
After high-level NASA employees intervened, the department announced on Monday that it would delay the repeal just before the peak of August 31 and September, but just before the peak of what would be expected to be a above average hurricane season. That may be just a temporary reprieve.
The looming loss of high-tech microwave imaging is just the latest in a series of cuts the Trump administration has published in hurricane research. The detailed budget request, released Monday, also calls for the completion of most of the research carried out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including the Atlantic Ocean Plant and Meteorological Research Institute, based in Miami, home to the Hurricane Research Division.
Last week, in the proposed cuts in the latest controversy, the Department of Defense announced that it would suddenly halt data sharing from its defense weather satellite programme from three weather satellites that will be collaborating with NOAA for “critical cybersecurity risks.”
Franklin said he didn’t explain the possibility that a system that has been in use for decades could suddenly have an interest in the military, but he and other meteorologists want to maintain service at least until the end of the hurricane season.
“How serious is the cybersecurity threat? If we can extend it to a month, and if we can extend it for a month, can we extend it to the peak of hurricane season?” he asked.
NOAA did not immediately respond to requests for comment from the Miami Herald, but an agency spokesman downplayed the concerns and told Local10’s Michael Lowry that the missing satellite was “a single dataset of a robust dataset of hurricane prediction and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.”
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“NOAA data sources can provide a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the right gold standard weather for the American public,” the agency said.
“Sunrise Surprise”
Meteorologists say these satellites are invaluable. Other data sources and tools available do not look at the courage of a storm passing through the night clouds in the same way.
A special sensor microwave image sounder, or SSMIS, allows predictors to look at the major changes in the rain zone surrounding the nucleus of a dark, cloudy night storm. Franklin said Franklin is telling predictors a process known as the storm is much stronger, much faster, and faster reinforcement.
He said that before or without that system, the predictor would get a “sunrise surprise.” They were awakened to a much stronger or different storm than the previous evening, and were 8 hours closer to landing.
“If we lose that, these SSMIS data will be gone and when predictors are looking for clues that the storm is about to undergo this rapid reinforcement process, they may be several hours behind before those clues become apparent from other types of data,” he said. “If you had one of these microwave passes, you might have known six or ten hours ago.”
Satellite data also gives predictors the opportunity to be aware of eye wall exchange cycles.
Storm strengthening often forms new eyes that wrap and oust their original eyes. Midway through that process, the storm will become weaker, but grow more widely. In other words, the impact spreads along a much larger area. As Hurricane Katrina did in 2005, if a storm passes through the cycle of eye walls right next to the land, it could have a big impact on who gets hit and how difficult it will be.
Former Hurricane Hunter Andy Hazelton said the satellite helped scientists try to jump into the storm, see what they are against and prepare them for their mission.
“Microwave satellites are important pieces to look under the hood of a storm. It tells us what to expect,” said Hazelton, now a scientist at the University of Miami.
Hurricane Hunter planes are the “best tool available” to peer into the storm and see such changes, but planes are not sent to all storms. Therefore, microwave paths remain the best option for moving storms between far away, weaker storms and plane flights, Franklin said.
And that data loss may be important, especially for plotting the centres of distant developmental systems.
“I think without microwave images, some of these initial position estimates could easily turn off 50 or 60 miles or more in some cases,” he said. “The better you know the initial state, the more time the error will increase.”
There are few possible alternatives
In its statement, NOAA pointed to a storm view of predictors: advanced technology microwave sounders, or another satellite tool that provides ATMs. But hurricane scientists say the finer details of the military satellite are offline.
“It’s like the graphics of video games since the late ’80s compared to the 2010s,” Hazelton said. “There is no resolution.”
Satellites are not young and fresh technology. The first of the programme began in 1964, and NOAA had no common responsibility for technology until 1994. Franklin said he understands that at least one of the three will be phased out next September. However, there is no immediate plan for the exchange.
The new Pentagon satellite with similar features is scheduled to be released in October, but Franklin said it is not clear whether the data will be available to predictors.
“The decision to turn off data processing when there is still a usable lifespan is somewhat inexplicable,” he said. “This is a real self-harm scar.”
“Hit after hit”
The loss of a critical satellite comes just weeks after NOAA terminated its contract with Saildrone, a private company that has observed hurricanes from the air and from the ocean and provided several non-white-criminal drones that supplied data to scientists.
“Unfortunately, due to timelines related to contracts, shipping and transportation, Saildrone is unable to support the Atlantic Hurricane Mission this season,” the company said in a statement. “The longstanding partnership of innovative collaborations with NOAA continues across many other mission opportunities.”
Hurricane researcher Hazelton said the information provided by Saildrone was more “experimental” than satellites, but it still helped to inform and improve the Storm model.
“The more data, the better,” he said. “I feel like I lost these data and got hits after hit.”
On Monday, NOAA released a more detailed budget request for next year for Congress to approve. It doesn’t differ from the broad strokes of the budget released earlier this year, but it offers more details on what the agency can cut back on what it sees under the new presidential administration.
This budget would require the reduction of all NOAA research at Climate Labs and cooperative institutions across the country, including the Miami-based AOML Lab and academic partnerships with the University of Miami.
Hazelton calls this a major blow to what has improved its bipartisan mission, hurricane prediction, for decades.
The administration said key weather services will be reorganized under the National Weather Service, but it did not provide details.
“The proposal would basically remove all NOAA research,” he said. “Even if we were moved to the National Weather Service on paper, it’s going to hit almost all of our research and development and modeling.”
The story was originally published by the Miami Herald and was shared in collaboration with the Martin Room Initiative, founded by the Florida Creemate Report Network, the Miami Herald, the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Palm Beach Post, the Orlando Sentinel, the Orlando Sentinel, WLRN Public Media, and the Tampa Bay Times.
