Nicholas Riccardi and Nadia Rasan
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) – US Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a Texan Democrat who represents a slice of the Rio Grande Valley along the border with Mexico, won his last congressional election with just over 5,000 votes.
It makes him an attractive target for Republicans. Republicans will redraw the state’s congressional map this week and devise five new winning seats for the GOP that will help the party avoid losing control of the home in the 2026 election. Adjusting Gonzalez’s district line to bring Democratic voters to thousands or more Republican voters could potentially turn seats upside down.
Gonzalez said he wasn’t worried. These Democrat voters must end up in one of the Republican districts adjacent to Gonzalez’s current district, making them more competitive.
“Prepare for a pickup opportunity,” Gonzalez said, adding that his party is already recruiting challengers for Republicans who are expected to be volatile by the process. “We’re talking to veterans. We’re talking to former law enforcement agencies.”
Texas has 38 seats. The Republicans currently hold 25 and 12 Democrats, with one seat vacant after former Houston mayor Sylvestar Turner, Democrat, passed away in March.
Gonzalez’s district, and neighboring GOP Held’s districts, are at the heart of President Donald Trump’s high-risk reward driving force, allowing Texas Republicans to redraw their political maps. Trump is trying to avoid the traditional middle disappointment that most incumbent presidents endure and endure a narrowly controlled home by the GOP.
Trump’s push comes as there are numerous indications of political danger to his presidency, both in recent turmoil and in new polls about his administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. A survey from the Associated Press Civil Service Center shows that most US adults believe his policies are not helping them, and that his tax cuts and spending bills will help the wealthy.
Republicans risk putting their seats at risk
The fear of accidentally creating a dangerous seat is one of the reasons Texas Republicans carefully drew boundaries in 2021 when the constitutionally mandated rezoning process began in all 50 states. Cartographers – In most states, it is the parties who control legislatures, but the legislature and state legislation must be coordinated for each decade’s census to ensure that the district has roughly the same number of residents.
It’s a great opportunity for one party to rig another, a tactic known as gerrymandering. But there are terms too. So it is that the party’s own seat is at risk by actively drawing the map: “Dummymander.”
The Texas GOP knows the risks. In the 2010s, Republican-controlled Congress drew political boundaries that helped fill the majority of the GOP home. It continued into 2018, with backlash against Trump in his first term leading Democrats to overturn two Texas seats that Republicans thought were safe.
In 2021, Republicans were still comfortable in charge of the Texas Capitol, so the party was cautious and chose a map that compensated for incumbents rather than primarily targeted Democrats.
Still, many Republicans believe their Texas counterparts can safely launch the attack.
“Smart map drowning can provide pick-up opportunities while keeping incumbents at risk,” said Adam Kincaid, executive director of trusts for national Republican districts.
Democrats are pondering their strike
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott called a special session for Congress that begins Monday to redraw the Congressional map and comply with Trump’s demands to deal with floods in Texas Hill that killed at least 135 people this month.
Democrat state lawmakers are talking about leaving the Capitol to deny the minimum number needed to convene from the legislature. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton posted that Democrats who did that should be arrested.
After the House changed rules when Democrats launched a strike in 2021, lawmakers will be fined up to $500 a day for breaking the quorum. Despite the new penalties, Rep. Trey Martinez Fisher, who led the strike in 2021, has left another possibility open.
“I don’t think anyone should underestimate the will of the Texas Democrats,” he said.
Texas is not the only Republican nation engaged in medium term redemption agencies. Ohio Republicans hope to redraw the Congressional map from 10-5, which biased the Congressional map as 13-2 last year, when Trump won the vote last year, to 10-5, which supports the Congressional map at 10-5.
GOP is seeing momentum after the 2024 presidential election
The Democrats have few options. Party managers in more states do not allow elected partisans to draw maps and commission independent committees.
Some party leaders, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, are piloting to avoid fees to counter Texas, but there are few options.
A small number of Democrat-controlled states that allow elected officials to draw lines such as Illinois have already seen Democrats get their best out of their advantages.
Trump and his allies have gathered Texas Republicans to help them get bigger and ignore the fears they might do.
On Tuesday, the president reminded his social media site of records in the state last November. “We won 1.5 million votes, almost 14%, and we also won all the border counties along Mexico.
Texas has long been a democratic national trend due to its growing non-white population. However, these communities shaking last year, helping Trump expand his margin to 14% points. This has greatly improved the 6-point victory in 2020.
Michael Lee, a longtime state watcher from Texas at the Brennan Judicial Center in New York, said there is no way to know if that trend will continue in next year’s election or whether the state will return to blue trending methods.
“Anyone who can tell you what Texas politics looks like for decades of balance is better than me,” Lee said.
Offensive constituencies also pose legal risks
One region of the state where Republican interests are stable is the Rio Grande Valley, which runs from the Gulf of Mexico along much of the state’s southern border. The severe Hispanic area, home to many border patrol officers, is centered around the harsh populist messages of Trump immigrants.
As a result, Gonzalez and other Democrats in the area, Henry Culler, have seen their reelection campaign steadily get tougher. They are widely speculated to be two top targets in the new map.
The GOP is expected to look to the state’s three largest cities to find other democratic targets. If cartographers scatter Democrat voters from areas in the Houston, Dallas and Austin area, they can reach an additional five seats.
But doing so faces legal risks in addition to election risks. That means disbanding districts that require the Voting Rights Act to have certain minority groups. The goal of federal law is to allow these communities to elect representatives of their choice.
The Texas GOP is already facing lawsuits from civil rights groups who claim that the first 2021 map did this. If this year’s rezoning is too aggressive, it could cause a second complaint.
“It’s politically and legally dangerous,” Lee said of the rezoning strategy. “I’m paying attention to the wind.”
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Riccardi reported from Denver.
Original issue: July 20, 2025 7:32am EDT
