By Anne d’Hynenzio
NEW YORK (AP) — Sending children back to school in new sneakers, jeans and t-shirts is likely to cost families significantly this fall if bespoke custom-made tariff president Donald Trump takes effect as planned, US Industry Group warns.
Approximately 97% of clothing and shoes purchased in the US are mainly imported from Asia, the American Apparel & Footwear Association says it cites the latest data. Walmart, Gap Inc., Lululemon and Nike are some of the companies that have the majority of clothing made in Asian countries.
These same garments-making hubs were a huge hit under the president’s plan to punish individual countries for trade imbalances. For all Chinese products, it meant a tariff of at least 54%. He set import tax rates for Vietnam and neighboring Cambodia at 46% and 49%, while Bangladeshi and Indonesian products at 37% and 32%.
They work with foreign factories to keep labor costs down for fashion trade companies, but neither they nor overseas suppliers are likely to absorb that high costs. India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka were also slapped at high tariffs, so there is no substitute to source immediately.
“If these tariffs are allowed to last, they will ultimately reach consumers,” said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association.
Another trade group, American footwear distributors and retailers, have provided estimates of price increases that could be stored for shoes, pointing out that 99% of pairs sold in the US are imported. The Chinese-made work boots, currently retailing for $77, cost $115, but customers will pay $220 for Vietnam-made running shoes, which are currently selling for $155, the group said.
FDRA president Matt Priest predicts low-income families and predicts where they shop will feel the most impact. He said that according to his group’s calculations, Chinese-made children’s shoes that cost $26 today are likely to be priced at $41 by the time the return to school shopping season.
Preparing a moving target
Not only did they finish fashion, but the tariffs of top producers of many of the materials used to make footwear and apparel have shocked US retailers and brands. Before Trump’s first term, US companies had begun to diversify away from China, responding to trade tensions and human rights and environmental concerns.
They accelerated the pace when they ordered tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, shifting more production to other countries in Asia. In its latest annual submission, Lululemon said last year’s sportswear was manufactured in Vietnam, 17% in Cambodia, 11% in Sri Lanka, 11% in Indonesia and 7% in Bangladesh.
Nike, Levi Strauss, Ralph Lauren, Gap. Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch and VF Corporation owns Vans, North Face and Timberland, but also reports that its dependence on clothing manufacturers and suppliers in China has significantly reduced.
Shoe brand Steve Madden said in November that he would cut imports from China by up to 45% this year due to Trump’s campaign pledge to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese products. The brand said it has already spent several years developing its plant network in Cambodia, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil.
Industry experts say reviving the American clothing industry is extremely expensive and will take years if it is possible. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in January 2015, the number of people working in apparel manufacturing was 139,000, down from 85,000 by January this year. Sri Lanka employs four times more employees despite its population being under the age of 70 in the US
In addition to lacking a skilled and ambitious workforce, the US does not have a domestic source of over 70 materials to go to make typical shoes, American footwear distributors and retailers said in written comments to Trump’s trade representatives.
Shoe companies will need to find and install factories to make cotton strings, eyelets, textile uppers and other components to make footwear that is completed in the US on a large scale, the group wrote.
“These materials don’t exist here. Many of these materials didn’t exist in the US,” the organization said.
Price increases may come as a shock
The expected barrage of rising apparel prices will follow 30 years of stability. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, clothing was basically the same as what consumers did in 1994 in 2024.
Economists and industry analysts say this trend is attributed to free trade agreements, offshoring to foreign countries where workers are paid much less, and fierce competition for shoppers among discount retailers and first fashion brands such as H&M, Zara and Forever 21.
However, customers are not used to inflation in the apparel sector, and the rapid rise in grocery and housing costs for years can make them extremely sensitive to big jumps in clothing prices. American footwear distributors and retailers priests said they have observed that since Trump returned to the White House, shoppers have been watching him pull back shoe purchases.
“They’re nervous,” he said. “They’ve obviously played a long game because they’re clearly related to inflation over the years, and they don’t have the endurance to absorb higher prices, especially as given by the US government.”
Winners and losers in the clothing trade war
According to a British Bank Barclays report issued Friday, the winners of the Customs War are retailers who have at least one of these attributes. Great bargaining power with suppliers, strong brand names, limited sourcing in Asia.
The report includes off-price retailers Burlington, Rothstore Inc., and TJX companies that run TJ Maxx and Marshalls, which operate TJ Maxx and Marshalls.
According to the report, companies during difficult times are those with limited negotiation power, limited pricing power in Asia, limited product exposure in Asia, and companies such as Asia, Urban Outfitters and American Eagle Outfitters.
Threadup, a second-hand clothing resale site, supported the related actions Trump took with his latest tariffs. Eliminates widely used tax exemptions.
“This policy change will increase the cost of cheaply produced disposable clothing imported from China, and directly impact business models that promote overproduction and environmental degradation,” Threadup said.
Several industry analysts and economists said they believe the tariffs will become a consumer sales tax that widens the gap between America’s wealthiest residents and the horses at the middle and bottom of the income spectrum.
“So, with tariff rates in Bangladesh, Vietnam and China become astronomical, where will the US buy that apparel?” Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said of the schedule that is due to take effect on Wednesday. “Does the new ‘golden age’ include not only knitting our own knickers, but also snapping mobile phones together? ”
Original issue: April 6, 2025, 12:21am EDT
