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Home » Retail Roundup: Consumers and Food Retailers Put Pressure on Walmart’s 2025 Outlook
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Retail Roundup: Consumers and Food Retailers Put Pressure on Walmart’s 2025 Outlook

adminBy adminMarch 1, 2025No Comments5 Mins Read0 Views
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Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX reported fourth quarter and year-end results, citing concerns about weaker consumer spending despite several bright spots.

News Analysis

Walmart Inc.’s year-end financial results are a wide range of markets, food and consumer retailers working diligently to regain customers in stores after holidays and to buy more products in-store and online.

During a Walmart fourth quarter conference call with Wall Street analysts on February 20, the top executives in Bentonville, Arkansas, provided lukewarm water in 2025, expressing concerns about President Donald Trump’s inverse tariffs and rising prices for everyday staples such as eggs, meat and chicken.
As a key pioneer in the US and the global economy, Walmart expects revenues of 57-58 cents per share in the first quarter, well below Wall Street’s 64 cents forecast. According to Factset, the retail giant expects to report revenues in the range of $2.50 to $2.60 per share for a year.

In response to analysts’ questions about the company’s decline in expectations, Walmart CEO John McMillion and CFO John David Rainey have repeatedly said they are happy with the company’s current growth and are suitable for the uncertain economic winds of the future. The company’s outlook reflects current reality, they said.

“Our outlook assumes a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, but we acknowledge that there is still uncertainty associated with consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions,” Rainey said.

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Other retailers said this week they were trying to balance the same risks. Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX companies reported fourth quarter and year-end financial results in one of the busiest revenue weeks for consumer-side retailers. Despite some bright spots, each retailer was concerned about how consumer spending and reliability would affect future sales and growth.

On February 25th, Home Depot reported an adjusted profit of $3.13 against $39.7 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024. Home Depot’s Ted Decker told analysts during the company’s revenue call despite the outcome of beating Wall Street’s forecast.

Following Home Depot’s Tepid Outlook, Bradley Johnson, senior analyst at KeyBanc Capital Market, said retailers are struggling to regain their footing due to weak consumer spending, the soft housing market and ongoing threats from e-commerce retailers.

In a research note shared in an email with the Epoch Times, Johnson said almost all brick and mortar retailers are “facing an increasing threat from e-commerce and Amazon.” Although the housing improvement sector historically has less risk from e-commerce, he said that increasing online competition, or the need to invest more in digital shopping experiences, could negatively impact future sales margins.

Lowe’s Companies Inc., the chief fly ball of Home Depot, reported net income of $1.99 per share at $1.99 per share, easily defeating Wall Street’s $1.84 per share.

Johnson said their outlook reflects “short-term uncertainty in the housing improvement market,” despite better than expected financial results from the two biggest housing improvement giants in the country.

On the apparel side of the retail sector, parents of discount retailers TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods also reported mixed results this week. The results for TJX companies in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 were significantly better as they came into contact with nearly record highs following their better than expected revenue on February 26th.

The Boston-based value retailer reported profits of $1.23 per share, with analysts’ consensus being $1.16. Revenues remained flat at $16.4 billion a year ago, but Wall Street views were $16.2 billion higher. Sales in the same store, a major industry performance metric, increased by 5%, but analysts only predicted growth of 3.1%.
During the company’s conference call with analysts, TJX CEO Ernie Herman recognized his team as “all the company had a great execution, leading to planned outcomes.” “Obviously, our great values, our mix assortment and freshness resonated with shoppers during the holiday season,” Herman said.

Unlike Walmart, Home Depot, Dillard and other consumer retailers who have lowered their 2025 outlook, Hermann has expressed optimism that the Framingham, Massachusetts-based apparel chain could continue to provide stunning value to high-quality brands and statistics throughout the year.

“When we start in 2025, we are excited about the opportunities we will see in our business, and we plan a number of initiatives to drive more sales and traffic to our stores and online,” he said, noting that the company has reached a major milestone, opening its 500th store in the quarter.

Meanwhile, next week could have retail outcomes as we await fourth quarter revenues for Target Corp., Dollar General and Dollar Tree in the first two weeks of March. Not only does it deal with internal issues like DEI backlash, management makeovers and the same tariffs and consumer pressures as other retailers, it must compete directly with Walmart, according to Truist Securities analyst Scot Ciccarelli.

“We believe Walmart Effect is increasing steam because “Walmart Effect” leverages a higher margin of alternative revenue streams. This will increase the price gap by increasingly supporting core retail operations and providing more services and direct competitors.”



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