Republicans are pulling out all stops ahead of the special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, as President Trump won more than 30 points in November by narrower margin worries than expected.
Trump called on two teletown halls for Sen. Randyfine (R) to kick out the Republican base on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s America Pac spent about $10,200 in the race earlier this week, lowering another $66,000 on Thursday.
While Democratic candidate Josh Weill has fined him, an internal vote from Republican company Fabrizio Ward showed Weill holds a three-point lead with a fine.
Democrats and Republicans continue to argue that Republican losses in that district are almost unlikely given their red lean. But the narrow margin would give Democrat material to argue that there is dissatisfaction among Trump’s Republicans. As for Republicans, Democrats’ overperformance in polls and fundraising is getting too close to comfort as speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) tries to navigate the margins of a thin razor home.
House Republicans control a narrow majority of 218-213. This makes Johnson not fully allow for the flexibility to pass border security, tax laws and budget adjustment packages that combine energy and defense spending.
Trump acknowledges concerns about the majority of the small home, and Johnson must pass his agenda on Thursday.
“We’re a fan of the world,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist based in Florida. “[Trump] I want him to be able to bring home the big, beautiful bill. ”
Republicans pushed back the theory that Stefanik’s nomination was being pulled and had something to do with a special house race in Florida, but that was bad timing and said what they said was a special election slow-walking to replace New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) Stefanik.
Despite the tensions ahead of Election Day, most Republicans and Democrats argue that the fine is likely to win in the end. The question is how much.
Democrats have already used potentially close margins of racial use as evidence that even some countries favoring Trump’s agenda are problematic for the GOP.
“These are races that should not be on anyone’s political radar under normal circumstances. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won over 30 points,” minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (Dn.y.) told reporters this week. “Americans don’t buy what Republicans sell, so they’re running.”
Republicans, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, also warned about Tuesday’s election.
“Regardless of the outcome, it will be a low-performance way from what I won that district by 2022 and what the president won in November,” Desantis told reporters.
“It’s a reflection of the candidates who run that race,” DeSantis said.
Desantis and Fine have a controversial history dating back to when Fine switched his support from Desantis to Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
Some Republicans say fines will ultimately come with plenty of margins.
“Remember, he didn’t attend TV until last week,” said one Republican strategist. “So Josh is doing really well. I mean, he’s burned out as a load of money, but he’s been on TV since the beginning of March.”
Republicans argue that between the fines rise to television and the influx of external spending, the fines can expand his lead to a more comfortable margin.
Another promising sign for Republicans is that early and absentee votes slowly moved towards Fine’s favor last week.
It was estimated that Weil was narrowly led, according to early and email-in voting data compiled by Decision Desk HQ on Tuesday. That trend appeared to continue into the weekend as of Friday.
” [absentee/early vote] “We’ve seen a lot of effort into this world,” said Scott Tranter, Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ. “Scott Tranter, GOP’s Science Director, said:
“That being said, we have recently seen a special election in which Democratic candidates overcome R+15 voters, so this race remains close to Handia in 2024,” Tlanter added.
The latest example of a special election flip took place in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. There, Democrat James Malone won the Pennsylvania Senator in a district that was carried by a 57% vote. Democrats promoted the victory as a sign of grassroots enthusiasm during the second Trump era.
However, Florida is much redder than Pennsylvania, and the Florida GOP boasts the benefits of registering nearly 1.2 million voters.
A great victory with a comfortable double-digit margin would make some Republicans argue, and Democrats would struggle to defeat him as a victory.
“If he wins 10, there’s no story,” O’Connell said.
