Oil prices have fallen by more than 12% over the week since Trump announced his tariffs.
U.S. domestic crude oil stocks recorded an increase of 2.6 million barrels per week as commodity prices remained volatile due to new trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
The report says it has around 442.3 million barrels of inventory, about 5% lower than the five-year average at this time of year.
Accumulation of inventory can mean a lot. In addition to the efforts the federal government has taken to strengthen oil reserves, an increase in crude oil could indicate an overall production (oversupply) or even lower overall use of goods, i.e., a lower overall use than using fuel due to lower demand or lower economic output.
According to the EIA report, inputs at US crude refineries are up 69,000 barrels per day. There was an average of 15.6 million barrels of input in recent weeks, and the refinery was operating at 86.7% of its operational capacity.
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President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements have been felt in the oil market, with benchmark WTI crude down 12% from $71.71 on April 2nd to $62.48 on April 9th, after a low of 59.58 on April 9th.
On April 9th, Trump announced a 90-day hiatus on global tariffs, excluding China. China’s communist regime was not given tariff relief for retaliation over US goods.
However, Trump has suspended his non-Chinese mutual tariffs for now and is currently negotiating with the country on trade transactions, so it remains to be seen whether the forecast will come true.
Trump has also begun his willingness to increase the U.S. domestic oil production.
Excavation in Alaska
On his first day in office, Trump ordered that he “quickly reverse the punitive restrictions put in place by the previous administration, specifically targeting resource development on both state and federal lands in Alaska.”
He developed the state’s liquefied natural gas potential and ordered a rapid lease of Alaska’s energy and natural resource projects.
In addition to this, the department is reviving a program that provides the entire coastal plain of 156 million acres of Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, available for oil and gas leases.
The decline in oil production is attributed to a decline in production from Iran and Venezuela.
“We expect oil inventories will put downward pressure on crude oil prices through late 2025 and 2026 when OPEC+ is expected to increase in production cuts and non-OPEC oil production. As a result, we expect Brent crude oil prices to fall to an average of $68/B in 2026.
