With the IRS tax return deadline just a few days ahead, more than a third of Americans have yet to file a return.
A new report from a national survey conducted by telephone and online shows that 51% of US adults have already filed income taxes. Another 28% plan to submit by the April 15 deadline, 7% will request an extension. 14% are not sure about their plans.
Regarding tax outcomes, 39% of respondents expect to receive a refund from the IRS. This is up from 36% in April last year. Meanwhile, 23% expect to pay, 21% believe they will break, and 17% think they are unsure.
A majority of early filers (55%) expect tax refunds, but expect either the IRS (30%) or evenly break (24%) among those planning to file by the April 15 deadline. Of those who expect to borrow, 12% plan to request an extension.
Republicans (59%) are more likely to have already filed taxes compared to Democrats (49%) and independents. They are also more certain about their expected tax outcomes, but voters who are not associated with Democrats are more likely to be unsure if they owe or will receive a refund.
The data also highlight the gender and age gap. More men (28%) than women (19%) expect to borrow an IRS this year, but it is more likely that women are saying they are uncertain about their submission plans. Americans over the age of 40 are more likely to have already applied, while younger adults, especially Americans under the age of 40, are more likely to delay or seek extensions in their applications. In particular, only 37% of women under the age of 40 have submitted so far.
In terms of race, 42% of white respondents, 45% of black respondents, 28% of Hispanic respondents, and 33% of other minorities expect a refund. Also, white people are most likely already submitted.
Married adults report higher filing rates than unmarried adults, and parents are more likely to expect a refund than children.
Income levels also affect tax expectations. We expect 38% of people who earn more than $200,000 will pay, but those with annual income are most likely to have individuals with between $50,000 and $100,000 already filed a return.
A survey of 1,205 American adults was conducted in 2025 on April 2-3 and 6 by Rasmussen reports. The margin for sampling error is +/- 3% points at a 95% confidence level. All Rasmussen Reports Surveys fieldwork is carried out by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
