China’s economy has entered a loose recovery after Beijing lifted its tough Covid-19 pandemic lockdown at the end of 2022. Since then, China’s economic data has shown a series of contradictions, drawing a dark picture of what’s going on within the country.
How bad is China’s economy? Is there a better indicator of that situation than the official domestic production growth rate of the current 5% government?
Below, Epoch Times curates relevant data to provide insight into actual economic situations.
A tough outlook for young people
Few people get married in China. Between 2013 and 2024, marriage registrations fell from 13.5 million to 6 million to 6 million to 6 million per year.–According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there is a temporary increase in 2023.
Following a 20% decline from the previous year last year, marriage registrations in China fell another 8% in the first quarter compared to the first three months of 2024.
Jan Yong, a professor of pediatrics at the National University of Singapore School of Medicine and an expert at the Singapore Population Association, said that the number of marriages jumped in 2023 due to two factors. “Dragon Baby.”
Due to the growth in 2023, the number of marriage registrations in China fell significantly in 2024. Yong said the unemployment rate among young people is high, with a global average of 13%, Yong said in March.
Home ownership is a general prerequisite for Chinese marriage. Given the current economy and the declining housing market, many families benefit from taking out more mortgages than their property worth.
China’s fertility rate is around 1.7, below the 2.1 level required to maintain the country’s population.
Yeung said the Chinese administration should focus on improving and recovering confidence in the economy to reverse the decline. She said that “anxiety and inability to meet what people want in life” could degrade the mental health of the population.
“I think the overall atmosphere about the economy and what kind of world they are in is even important to have a good marriage and fertility rate speed,” she told The Epoch Times.
Major cities show deflation
Retail sales of Chinese consumer goods have shown monthly year-on-year growth over the past 15 months, but the Beijing and Shanghai statistics do not support the favorable national view.
Retail consumption fell almost every month in the two tier cities during the same period. The only bright spot was through the Appliance Trade-In Program, launched in March 2024, which stimulated consumption of goods during subsequent major holidays.
The lower the export, the less work there is
Exports account for a third of China’s economic growth in 2024, according to a Chinese study from the Mercator Institute.
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Similarly, China’s containerized cargo index is based on prices cited from shipping companies in China’s 10 major ports. Indexes tend to be more reliable than other official economic data that can be manipulated, as they reflect open market prices.
The freight index has been falling monthly since January. In February, the Trump administration imposed an additional 10% tariff on China on its role in fentanyl trafficking. This doubled in March.
Data for April reflects the impact of US tariff escalation on 145%.
Shipping prices at Chinese ports have fallen below comparable global prices, as indicated by the Baltic Sea aridity index. The index measures container delivery prices for raw materials from major ports around the world.
Newly released data shows that China’s exports to the US fell 20% year-on-year in April. Year-on-year increase in exports to Southeast Asian countries still supported the overall growth of China’s exports.
Independent Chinese writer and commentator Cai Shenkun estimates that the previous US tariff rate of 145% led to job losses of 30-40 million people in China. He said a 90-day tariff rollback reduces the impact. However, it remains to be seen whether the US and China will be able to reach an agreement in three months.
The impact of additional tariffs has been temporarily curbed, but the structural issues that plague China’s economy will continue, CAI said during the Epoch era. While many families don’t have an income, social unrest can erupt if they still need to pay off their debts and cover the costs of their children and grandparents, he said.
The CAI even warned that there was a risk of humanitarian crises such as massive hunger, and that the world might not know about it as the communist regime has strict control over information. He said the international community should be strongly wary of such a crisis.
Li Keqiang Metrics
The late Chinese Prime Minister, Ti Kekian, said in 2007 that his state’s GDP count was “artificial” according to a leak from the diplomatic cable. At the time, he was the Chinese Communist Party Secretary of Leahoning, in northeastern China, and was a stronger position than the governor.
Following the closing session of the National People’s Assembly held at the Beijing Congress on March 15, 2015, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang answers the question. Feng Li/Getty Images
Instead, he saw three sets of numbers that are difficult to counterfeit: electricity consumption, rail freight volume, new bank loans issued.
Comparing the annual growth rate of the so-called Li Keqiang metric with Beijing’s GDP growth rate reveals many discrepancies.
Power generation
If total power generation, rail freight transport and the issuance of new bank loans have shown weak or negative growth in recent years, the country’s economic growth remained at over 5%, except during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Instead of electricity consumption, the Epoch Times looked at generation data from China’s National Statistics Bureau. This is because Chinese citizens complained that their meter readings had increased, according to reports in Chinese media. Unlike natural gas, power outages are rare. Therefore, generation can be a more reliable metric than power consumption.
In 2023, China changed its methodology for reporting power generation numbers. After the change, annual growth rate increased by 3%.
Railway freight was transported
Instead of looking at the rail freight volume in tonnes, the Epoch Times used tonne kilometer freight to track growth rates over the years. The metric is more pronounced than mere volume, as it also incorporates transport distance.
New bank loan issued
According to China’s Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China, the People’s Bank of China, the amount of new bank loans in 2024 fell 20% the previous year.
As both new bank loans and rail freight were transported and 4.6% generation growth was carried out, the overall formula GDP growth rate of 5% appears to be a mathematical stretch.
