Democratic primary elections are widely open.
In April, Jason Pizzo led 42% of the leading Democratic voters.
Pizzo’s exit from the party led to Daniela Levine Cava surged from 15% to 32%, becoming the new frontline in follow-up polls. Gwen Graham gained traction (5% to 13%), while others earned modest benefits. Undecided voters have increased to 20%, reflecting a lack of recognition of the names of candidates tested.
Republican primary: Trump’s unrealized support
In an April poll, the governor’s GOP primary was very close between Byron Donald and Casey DeSantis. However, an April poll did not show that Donald was approved by Trump.
In both polls, more than 60% of Republicans said they were far more likely to vote for Trump’s backed candidate, but Desantis took a small lead in both polls.
When testing his perception of Trump’s support in the May poll, only 38% of Republicans knew he was in support of Donald. Half (50%) said they were unaware, and another 12% were unsure.
To measure the impact of this approval, after thinking more about the candidates, we asked voters to consider their preferences. Donald’s support jumped from 28% to 44%, overtaking Desantis.
Trump’s support has a huge weight among Republican voters, but half of them don’t know that it happened.
The April poll also showed Donald had a net favor of +32 with very low negatives. His 71% name recognition followed Desantis (88%). It’s not surprising given Desantis’ profile as the wife of a popular second term governor who was 80% GOP approved.
Hypothetical General Election Battle
We tested two court votes with registered voters to explore how independent candidates from Pizzo form the general election. Given how far the elections are, these are probably not voter models.
In the Donald vs. Levine Cava vs. Pizzo race, Donald led four points and led 23% undecided.
In Desantis vs. Levine Cava vs. Pizzo Race, Desantis has a 4-point lead with 18% undecided. Desantis and Donalds vote at nearly 40%, and the majority of Florida registered Republicans vote. It suggests that early general election support is closely tracked by partisan ID.
All current budget proposals by Governor Desantis and both the House and Senate have all raised a variety of ideas to reduce the tax burden. Nearly two (65%) of three voters support a more limited proposal to eliminate property taxes for major residences through an extended Homestead exemption (34% strong support), with 11% opposed.
There is strong support for the abolition of property taxes, but 60% are concerned about potential cuts in local services, with a significant portion of voters showing the weight of the trade-offs.
More than half of voters (55%) are in favor of removing 7% taxes on phone, cable and streaming invoices despite local government revenue of $600 million per year. Housing and insurance challenges
Recognizing the ongoing issues with homeowners’ insurance in the state, one in three Florida residents did not see any changes or decreases in homeowners’ premiums.
To address housing affordability, a third (32%) of Floridians believe that adding housing units will reduce costs, but 49% are unlikely to improve the situation. (18%) voters report difficulties in scheduling dental appointments, finding that one in four (24%) have problems with providers who do not accept insurance, and 26% challenge timely bookings.
“If money is not the purpose, but the way you wanted, which of the following would you choose?” Floridians wanted an alternative to traditional public schools. Two in five (41%) prefer private or charter schools, while 13% prefer homeschooling, indicating a strong demand for school choice.
Almost half of poll parents (46%) have one child, but only 12% want to stop alone, with a 34-point gap. This suggests that economic barriers prevent the growth of many single-child families. This is an important opportunity for the $5,000 child proposal to address.
Having two children is a stable goal, with 38% reporting two children at home, consistent with 38% who wished two without financial pressure, indicating that families with two children generally fulfill their aspirations. Large families have unfulfilled desires. Three children (10% vs. 19%) have a 9-point gap, with 18-point gap for four or more, indicating a strong desire among parents in large, unrealized families. While economic pressures are likely to be contributors, other factors such as timing, health and lifestyle also play a role. Gig workers and freelancers Florida have a robust gig economy driven by sectors such as ride sharing (Uber, Lyft, etc.), distribution services (e.g. Doordash, Instacart), and independent contracts. Florida voters strongly support the portable benefits of gig workers and freelancers, with 65% supporting access to healthcare, retirement plans and paid leave, where 65% move from duties to positions.
