How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will affect Florida

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is on the move in Washington, D.C.

Whether the bill is beautiful is, as the saying goes, in the eye of the beholder. But at 1,038 pages, and with a price tag of some $3 trillion in new estimated federal debt over the next 10 years, the bill is certainly big.

It has major implications for Florida, with local hospitals, taxpayers and social service organizations — to name a few — affected by various provisions.

Trump’s team is mounting an all-out blitz to get the legislation passed. So far, the GOP has fallen into line: The measure passed the GOP-controlled U.S. House by a single vote in May. Every Republican from Florida voted yes.

Next up is the U.S. Senate, where the Trump team will likely have to convince Republicans that the hefty price tag estimated by nonpartisan budget officials will be offset by the economic growth its proponents promise. Republicans are hoping to pass the bill by July 4.

But let’s set politics aside for a moment and highlight what’s in this massive bill and what it means for Florida. With the sizable caveats that all of this is subject to change as the legislation makes its way through Congress — and that we don’t know when or if it may finally pass — here are six key provisions that would affect the Sunshine State.

1. Huge Medicaid cuts might come

The Big Beautiful Bill would slash Medicaid, a joint state and federal program that insures the poor — mainly children — to the tune of about $800 billion over 10 years.

For decades, states have had the option to enact taxes on health care providers to draw down more federal dollars for their Medicaid programs. The Trump-backed bill would freeze how much states can draw down. In a time of rising health costs, that could be a problem for hospitals, advocates say.

If Medicaid is not properly funded, the entire health care system suffers. One in six Floridians — mostly children — are insured by Medicaid. Nearly half of all births in the state are covered by the program.

U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, who represents Citrus and Hernando counties and part of Pasco, voted for the bill. He says the cuts to Medicaid largely affect other states and that the changes set the program on a more sustainable path.

The bill puts in place work requirements for many working-age Medicaid beneficiaries. In Florida, though, Medicaid is largely steered toward children, pregnant women, people with disabilities and the elderly.

“Medicaid eligibility in Florida will not change as a result of this legislation,” a Bilirakis spokesperson wrote in an email.

The health sector would nonetheless feel the effects of these cuts. Mary Mayhew, the president and CEO of the Florida Hospital Association, said Medicaid cuts will result in health care providers pulling back from underserved communities. That could mean hospitals closing obstetric units in rural areas, she said. It could mean fewer psychiatric outpatient beds for Floridians undergoing a mental health crisis.

“This is not about good health policy for Medicaid. This is about paying for expiring tax cuts,” Mayhew said.

2. No taxes on tips

The bill delivers on a number of Trump’s campaign promises — most notably, “no taxes on tips,” which became a key rallying cry last year.

Overtime and tips would be tax-exempt until 2028. Lawmakers have crafted a series of guardrails with the intention of giving the break only to relatively low-income employees who work in fields in which tips are customary. In Florida’s vast tourism and dining industries, that could make a real difference. More than 1 million Floridians work in food preparation and service alone, according to federal data.

That’s just one of many tax provisions that could benefit Floridians. Seniors making less than $75,000 per year would get an additional $4,000 deduction on their income taxes through 2028. The bill expands the child tax credit, and it repeals an excise tax on tanning salons.

Most expensively, the bill would make permanent many of the tax cuts signed into law by Trump in 2017. Many small business owners will be able to deduct up to 23% of their businesses’ income from their returns; a similar provision is set to expire at the end of the year along with the bulk of Trump’s tax cuts.

Extending the cuts disproportionately benefits the highest earners, who pay the most in income taxes.

Republicans who support the bill say these tax breaks must be extended to avoid a drastic tax increase for millions of Americans come Jan. 1.

One of the highest-profile proposals likely wouldn’t affect Floridians at all. The House legislation raises the threshold on the amount of state and local taxes that middle-class earners can deduct from their federal taxes. Because Florida does not have an income tax, Floridians aren’t likely to benefit.

The bill’s provisions are restricted to U.S. citizens. People in the country illegally largely weren’t eligible for federal programs before this tax package, but now residents with legal status won’t be eligible for some key ones, either. For example, filers who lack a Social Security number likely wouldn’t benefit from the newly expanded child tax credit.

“These tax cuts are taking away from those who don’t have to give to those who already have more than enough,” said Adriana Cadena, director of the Protecting Immigrant Families Coalition, which represents about 800 organizations that work to improve immigrant families’ access to social services.

Perhaps the most controversial part of these tax provisions is the cost. Republicans argue that budget forecasters are not factoring in the economic boom that’s sure to result from cutting taxes and unleashing growth.

William G. Gale, a senior fellow at the centrist D.C.-based Brookings Institution who tracks tax policy, disputed that.

“This is going to increase the deficit, increase the debt. There’s no question about that,” Gale said. “The Republicans keep saying, ‘Oh, it’s costless because there’s going to be so much growth that we’ll make up for it.’ … No responsible organization is suggesting growth effects anywhere near that big.”

3. Florida wouldn’t be able to regulate AI

The bill stops states from regulating artificial intelligence for 10 years and encourages governments and businesses to adopt it quickly. These provisions seek to bring the United States to the forefront of technological advancement.

University of Florida philosophy professor Duncan Purves said the bill’s approach is overly general.

“We do want a unified national approach to AI development,” he said. “But there’s this presupposition that all states are facing the same types of problems. I worry about taking power out of state hands to make those decisions when the responsibility belongs to them.”

Purves studies the ethics of AI in predictive policing, where one of his main concerns is opaque systems — when people can’t see how or why AI makes its decisions.

In the future, AI systems could hypothetically determine who is eligible for government benefits and decide how much they receive. People wouldn’t necessarily know what factors are being weighed, Purves said, and they wouldn’t be able to adjust their lifestyle to receive benefits they may need.

Purves also said AI systems typically lack security, noting there are several “pretty straightforward strategies” people can use to extract sensitive information like Social Security numbers and addresses.

Marc Berkman, CEO of the Organization for Social Media Safety, said sensitive information can also be used against people by the AI systems themselves. He said his organization has seen some chatbots recommend self-harm and romantic and sexual relationships to children.

Berkman said the bill’s sweeping approach to AI is drastic and could bring about even more harm to children as technological risks evolve.

“This is a huge mistake,” he said. “States across the board are already looking at responsible regulation for AI to protect consumers, especially children, in ways that are not harming AI development.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis said earlier this month in a news conference that AI is “maybe the most fundamental issue” states will see in coming years and that the ban would “kneecap the states.”

4. Say goodbye to EV tax credits

Floridians are set to lose out on tax credits passed or expanded under the Biden administration that encourage the consumption of green energy.

Tax credits on electric vehicles and commercial and residential solar projects would go away. That means complex solar projects that could be feasible with those tax credits likely won’t be considered, said Caleb Quaid, the president of Regenerative Shift, a Tampa-based environmental consulting firm that helps clients access these tax savings.

5. A crackdown on immigration

The bill sets aside tens of billions of dollars for border protection projects and deportations. The majority of this money is reserved for border states like Florida.

More than $2.7 billion would go to border surveillance technologies. Jim Harper, a senior nonresident fellow at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said the language about these surveillance technologies is intentionally vague.

“We don’t know what we’re going to get,” Harper said, “but what’s most likely, and what I’m most concerned by, is increased biometric surveillance.”

Biometric surveillance could mean retina scans and facial recognition, which Americans experience every time they go through airport security. Harper said he’s worried that innovations meant to keep the border secure will be adopted elsewhere. Widespread use of the technology, like a scanner at the mall or grocery store, poses privacy risks, he said.

The bill also offers $45 billion to build and operate immigration detention centers. This could mean Florida adding facilities to ease overcrowding in its five detention centers.

6. Other social programs on the chopping block

Florida, which has long been the No. 1 state for health care sign-ups on the Affordable Care Act marketplace, is likely to see chaos in its insurance sector. The Big Beautiful Bill fails to extend the expanded tax credit for health care, meaning families getting their insurance through the exchange could see their premiums jump by 75% on average, the health policy research and news organization KFF estimated.

“I think Republicans risk losing their majority in the 2026 elections if they allow these harmful provisions to become law,” said Julio Fuentes, president and CEO of the Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

The House version of the bill also transfers most of the financial burden of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which was formerly known as food stamps and served around 3 million Floridians in 2023, to the states. Florida Policy Institute senior policy analyst Cindy Huddleston said these changes would be a “seismic shift” for Florida.

“There’s no way to cut that much money without it having a terrible impact on the people participating,” Huddleston said.

The federal government currently covers the full cost of grocery benefits and splits administrative costs with each state 50-50. In Florida, that means the state pays around $89 million every year.

The Big Beautiful Bill would raise the state’s administrative cost responsibility to 75% and force it to shoulder part of the grocery benefit cost, amounting to $1.6 billion every year.

“I don’t imagine the state is going to be able to make up the cost difference without significant difficulty, if at all,” Huddleston said.

The changes to the program would primarily affect children, said Sky Beard, the Florida director of No Kid Hungry, adding that one in five children in the state lack consistent access to healthy food.

Beard said the state would likely start cutting program eligibility to reduce costs, including by requiring parents of young children to work. Work requirements aren’t an effective policy choice, she said, because most who can work already do.

“If the goal is to help people eat healthy, the way to get there is not what Congress is doing now,” Beard said.