Tampa Bay will be caught in a hot, feverish jaw this weekend and at the mercy of hot, damp breath for days.
Temperatures are expected to reach the 90s in some areas of Tampa Bay on Friday, and are expected to continue to swell until next week. In addition to the high temperatures, the increased humidity can make some parts of the area feel hotter than the 100 degrees on the weekend and up until next week.
Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist at Tampa Bay Office at National Weather Service, said the combination of atmospheric ingredients causes warm, dry air, pushing heat down in Tampa Bay.
“It’s a good setup so you can just dry above average,” Pierce said. “We’re not raining to cool us either. That’s what really drives the heat.”
Swelling heat comes from seasonally warm temperatures lurking elsewhere in the country, breaking records in places like North Dakota and Texas. Over the next few days, much of the Gulf Coast is at the mercy of some of the highest temperatures so far this year.
High temperatures in Tampa Bay are expected to range from the late ’80s to mid ’90s near the coast of the inland region from Saturday to Wednesday. Mondays and Tuesdays will probably be the warmest days.
As humidity rises, the emotional temperature rises sharply.
Excess water will begin to be wiped out into the area around Sunday, prior to a slight cooldown later in the week. It’s not enough to cause rain, but enough to feel “disastrous,” Pierce said.
On Saturday, the heat index (a combination of temperature and humidity) reaches the late 90s for most of the region. From Sunday through Wednesday, the heat index within Tampa Bay will likely be above 100 degrees.
The National Weather Service Map, which introduces thermal risks, displayed “moderate” and “major” risks for parts of Tampa Bay from Monday through Wednesday.
Medium thermal risk (level 2 on a scale of 0 to 4) means that temperature affects most people who are sensitive to heat. A big risk (Level 3) means that this level of heat is likely to affect anyone without proper cooling methods.
“People need to practice safe heat measurements when it’s really hot outside,” Pierce said. “So take a break in the shade and drink plenty of water.”
According to the Meteorological Bureau, heat pushes the normal temperature around 3-5 degrees above normal during this period.
“We definitely get this kind of temperature in May,” Pierce said. “That’s not normal.”
According to Weather Service data, the highest heat index recorded that month was a crushing 108 degrees in 2024, a tie from a record recorded in 1956.
Last May was the hottest recorded in many Tampa Bay cities, including St. Petersburg and Tampa. One reason: The temperature at night was warm and warm.
A study published last year showed that Tampa is part of the major trends caused by climate change, out of the eight cities where night temperatures have been the most extreme since 1950.
Later next week, Tampa Bay will likely see a grace period from the heat.
Pierce said about Thursday that a weak, cold front would fall into Tampa Bay. Weather services forecasts showed that temperatures would drop in the late ’80s in Tampa.
“We’re probably going to be a little above average,” Pierce said.