Here’s how Florida is already feeling the effects of Trump’s tariffs

Abigail Stclair was juggling two big purchase decisions.

The first was whether to order 150 kilos of seasonal tea from China, enough to continue her business, Tebella Tea Co., until August. The second was related to a potential location in North Carolina, part of the Davis Islands-based company’s major expansion. However, due to changes in international trade policy and looming tariff costs, she didn’t know if the plans would fit her budget.

“That’s what causes you to pump the brakes,” Stclair said when she usually “goes forward at full speed.”

As of this week, all other US trading partners except China have a 10% universal tariff. Trump announced tariffs on China’s exports escalated to 145% before dropping them 30% later.

Trump had suspended certain higher tariffs until July 9th. With that deadline approaching, economists say it could be straining parts of the state’s economy.

According to international trade data from the Census Bureau, trade partners from China to South Sudan and $117 billion in goods shipped from other states – last year, Florida was the 10th largest importer in the United States.

“This has impacted local businesses,” said Abby Hall, professor of economics at the University of Tampa. “This has impacted local consumers as people feel.”

The Tampa Bay Times asked economists and business leaders what the possible consequences the tariffs could have on Florida residents. This is what we learned.

Construction and manufacturing materials costs may increase

For imports and exports, the most valuable commodities traded internationally in Florida is manufacturing, whether it be automobiles or other mechanics.

The growth of Florida’s manufacturing sector has surpassed most other states, driven by the aviation, medical equipment and marine industries. A 2023 report by Florida Commerce and the Florida newspaper estimates there are over 68,000 manufacturing jobs in Tampa Bay alone.

According to Kevin Carr, CEO of Floridamakes, a group representing manufacturers, the sector benefits from Florida’s population growth and a business-friendly tax structure.

Carr said some manufacturers are more prepared to overcome challenges than others. Especially since the Covid-19 pandemic, businesses have already taken steps to move their suppliers to the US to avoid any confusion.

Still, these are long-term slow changes. Companies that rely heavily on certain products, such as imported steel and semiconductor chips, can become more vulnerable.

However, ambiguity regarding obligation rates is the biggest obstacle.

“Uncertainty,” Kerr said. “It’s what appears to be rattle the manufacturer’s cage. If you have to adapt to the new price structure, tell us what it is. We’ll move on from there.”

Development and construction also accounted for around 659,000 jobs in Florida, and homes sold in the region were more likely to be newer than in the US as a whole during Tampa Bay’s post-pandemic growth.

However, many of the supplies from outside the US imported more than $1.4 billion in timber products in 2024, according to census data. Almost a quarter of that started in Brazil, with about 12% coming from Canada.

The US is not producing enough wood to meet demand, a construction industry trade group said in April. Canada’s customs duties on coniferous wood are 14.5% (part of an ongoing trade dispute), but that number could increase.

Industry groups support federal orders to increase production of wood, including federal forested areas. However, due to logistics such that U.S. sawmill materials have limited capacity to process timber, the impact of this plan could take months or years to grasp. Environmental groups have criticised the plan, saying it would bypass the protection of endangered species and natural habitats.

Leisure spending is the first person to feel consumers pull back

Like other parts of the United States, owners of bars and restaurants around Tampa Bay rely on certain imported products that cannot be replaced domestically.

Census trade data shows that the Port of Florida imported $1.7 billion in alcohol and liquor last year. For example, at least $435 million was tequila. Coffee was $613 million and tea was $13 million.

“We’re talking about products that are growing outside the US,” said Roberto Torres, owner of the Blind Tiger Café, which has seven locations throughout Tampa and Hillsboro County. “That’s my dilemma. How can I fix it?”

He imports coffee from Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua and several other South American countries. Each source is currently bound by a 10% tariff. Torres also buys from Mexico, which has a 25% tariff on some beans.

He has not found a US company that produces paper cups at the same cost as what he imported from China. Price increases in blind tigers are inevitable at this rate, he said.

Consumers may not be able to see prices go up anytime soon. Hall said some companies may stock foreign products in advance, and that they may have pre-stocked foreign products to reduce or delay the impact. Torres confirmed that this is what he is doing, but he said it represents an entirely new “math problem.”

“How can I absorb the cost of what happened overnight? I can’t keep it up,” Torres said.

Small and medium-sized businesses feel an impact

Since February, there has been an upward trend in the use of the foreign trade belt in Port Tampa Bay, an area where businesses can hold goods before paying customs duties. They may spread the cost over time or wait for a lower fee, said zone director Tory Chambliss.

However, it is probably too early to see widespread changes in the supply chain. According to spokesman Lisa Wolf Chason, there was no significant drop in vessels with a clear demand for cargo space ports and cargo space.

However, some small businesses already feel boring. For example, Tebera imports tea from at least half a dozen countries. Stclair said the $16,000 cargo of branded tea cans ordered last fall has arrived. She bought it a few months before the duties, but paid an additional $11,000.

All purchases made during this period have different calculations, she said. If she buys before a more favorable tariff is introduced, she must pay more. However, after tariffs are lifted or reduced, she fears that an influx of orders will create competition in freight space.

“It’s really challenging for small businesses because they don’t have the bargaining power or purchasing power that big companies do,” Stclair said.

When she learned last week that tariffs on Chinese goods had fallen from 145%, she told her business manager to place an order they were considering. She said she didn’t have time to waste.

“If I had to pay 30% tariffs on everything I brought from China six months ago, I would have said, ‘That’s definitely not the case.’ Right now I think that’s great news,” Stclair said.

Uncertainty causes hesitation

Sean Snaice, an economist at the University of Central Florida, says much remains to be decided, which prevents employers from making decisions about adjusting prices imposed on the supply chain or products.

“The faster you can reach a new set of rules, the faster you can reach the adjustment process, allowing consumers and businesses to make adjustments,” he said.

Torres, the blind tiger, said this was one of his biggest complaints.

“We can’t program it, we can’t plan it,” he said. “If you don’t know what your strategy is, you can’t influence with vendors and partners, talk to vendors and partners, or come up with a plan.”

Unknownness can lead to what economists call “regulation uncertainty,” but these potentially lost opportunities cannot be quantified.

“It’s hard to see the entrepreneurial spirit that has had very realistic costs associated with businesses, and entrepreneurship, but it’s effectively outgoing or re-channeling as a result of the policy,” Hall said.

Stclair noticed belt tightness. She and other business owners can’t help but worry that the customer’s prudence will hurt them in the long run. Data from the University of Florida Bureau of Economics and Business Research shows that consumer sentiment has declined over the past three months.

Stclair hopes that even if tariffs are in place, exemptions will be provided for products that do not have a competitive American market like tea.

In the meantime, there are signs posted around the Tebera shop explaining the price rise. And she is still working on expansion plans. She gave her a counter offer for the North Carolina location where she was tired of and signed a lease at the Sarasota location.

“I and my team of two or three other people have made these decisions and are trying to understand what’s best for today, tomorrow and next year’s business,” Stclair says. “It’s a big responsibility to carry it around.”