North Florida is just over 24 hours away from what could be one of the most impactful winter storms in Gulf Coast history.
And while uncertainty regarding precipitation types in the eastern Panhandle is likely to be just around the corner, a trend toward colder air aloft will reduce the chance of rain and ice into the early hours of Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A messy mix of , sleet and snow is becoming more likely.
For the first time in seven years, winter storm warnings are in effect for Florida from Pensacola to Gainesville and Jacksonville.
If you look at how meteorology works, the seven keys I discussed Thursday necessary to square off Florida’s snow ring are turning simultaneously. Over the past few days, uncertainties regarding the presence of these elements, such as arctic air masses, induced troughs, and storm tracks, have decreased.
As a result, both global and regional weather models predict an almost unprecedented scenario in Florida’s meteorological history: an astonishing amount of precipitation, most of it frozen, from eastern Texas to Florida’s Big Bend. We have converged on the scenario.
The unknowns of historic Florida storms: Snow or ice? And how much?
For Florida State, there are two major uncertainties to discuss. First is the amount of precipitation.
The model ensemble has been trending up in recent days, with the Panhandle seeing anywhere from 0.25 inches to 1 inch of water-equivalent precipitation (meaning melted snow and ice), and Jacksonville There is good agreement that it is heaviest towards Jacksonville and lighter towards Jacksonville. Head towards Pensacola. Projected totals for Tallahassee are on the steep side, with about a half-inch most likely, but some models are showing values closer to an inch.
The amount of precipitation that falls all or mostly as snow or ice in North Florida is unprecedented. For example, in the December 1989 snowstorm, Tallahassee and Jacksonville received 1 and 2.5 inches of snow, respectively, down from 0.1 and 0.35 inches of water equivalent. No matter where you fall in the forecast range, no matter how cold it gets, you’ll be working with quite a bit of moisture. This means that there is a very high possibility that there will be negative effects in the winter.
As always, the main uncertainty is the type of precipitation, which is notoriously difficult to predict until winter storms begin.
That’s because powerful storms like this one turn the atmosphere into a complex layered cake of freezing and freezing temperatures into which snowflakes from above can fall, melt, and then refreeze. Freezing rain occurs when a relatively thin layer of the earth’s surface is below freezing, while ice grains form when the cold layer of the earth’s surface thickens below the so-called “warm nose” about a mile above the ground.
Snow requires near-freezing or sub-freezing temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere.
This will be a historic storm no matter how you slice it, but the worst impact will be that much of the precipitation will fall as freezing rain, and that it will damage roads, power lines, trees, and other surfaces that have been repeatedly pulled in this way. Probably if there’s ice. Damage from hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms over the past decade.
The good news is that the ensemble guidance through midday Monday is trending towards slightly cooler temperatures as the event approaches. But even with this trend in mind, North Florida will be a battleground between multiple precipitation types Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Let’s take a look at the general humidity and precipitation type forecast for each region. Keep in mind that 1) these forecasts are uncertain and may change prior to departure time, and 2) storm development is highly localized and may be extreme here. Please put it down. .
Western Panhandle, including Pensacola: Snow possible on beaches
When it comes to Pensacola and the surrounding area, it’s a little more predictable. This is because the data consensus suggests that on the west side of the Apalachicola River and just off the coast, the predominant precipitation type will be snow, perhaps starting with small ice.
The western Panhandle will have less moisture to exchange with cooler air masses both at the surface and in the sky, so expected water-equivalent precipitation will be lower here.
In general, the area could see occasional light mixed or snow showers starting Tuesday morning, with the heaviest snow falling Tuesday afternoon and evening. In general, 1 to 2 inches of total snowfall inland is your best bet, but don’t be surprised if local snowfall amounts are 3 inches or more.
Snow is possible along the western Panhandle coasts, but accumulations will be light along the coast. For comparison, the record for a single snowstorm in Florida is 4 inches, recorded in Milton on March 6, 1954. The snow will gradually become heavier and should end by early Wednesday morning.
Eastern Panhandle, including Tallahassee: Razor Edge of Snow and Ice
The forecast is least certain in the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle. This region is most likely to have an atmosphere that is just below freezing at the peak of the storm, where deep moisture and temperatures overlap 1 to 2 miles above the surface.
The model’s cooling trend over the past 24 hours continues to reduce the chance of significant rainfall, at least in the Capitol region east of the Suwannee River.
Tallahassee, which means we should see a combination of cold rain, sleet and snow. Several aesthetic events (or mixes) may occur on Tuesday morning, with the main event starting on Tuesday night, lasting all night, and tapering off before dawn on Wednesday.
I still hesitate to point out the finer points about precipitation types and precipitation forecasts, as the freeze line likely cuts straight through the Big Bend.
If the bluffs could hold snow for more hours, especially near the Apalachicola River and the Florida-Georgia border, snow totals could be between 1 and 3 inches (or more? Are you really typing this? ?).
Realistically, there’s a good chance that snow will fall at the beginning and end of the storm, especially in the eastern Big Bend, but while surface temperatures are below freezing, air temperatures are above freezing, so it could mix with freezing rain and sleet overnight. Possibly. The surface temperature is above freezing.
In that case, up to 0.25 inches of glaze or ice pellets can be deposited. Basically, it will be directly under the precipitation wire in the eastern Panhandle, so please visualize the snowfall. Let’s hope for less Tallahasret and ice and more snow repocalypse.
Northeast Florida, including Jacksonville
Further south and west toward Gainesville and Jacksonville, liquid-equivalent precipitation will reach more than 0.75 inches, but upper-level temperatures could remain below freezing for most of the storm.
That means precipitation will likely start as light rain Tuesday evening, with freezing rain likely to become more pronounced in the winter mix from early Wednesday night to late in the event, and possibly by the time the event wraps up by late Wednesday morning. may snow.
A total of 0.1 to 0.25 inches of glaze or ice could be present here, especially further north and west. Significant freezing precipitation is not expected much south of the Gainesville-St. Augustine border, but only a fool would be certain of the type of precipitation forecast for the Gulf Coast.
Winter dreams and important points to note
Finally, here are a few things to keep in mind when making predictions.
First, make all your precipitation forecasts before the actual storms start and rain down giant grains of salt that you don’t need on your roads.
Predictions vary widely in terms of who gets what is absolutely possible. As a snow lover, writing this forecast feels like writing weather fan fiction, but this forecast is my best estimate of the general outcome of the winter storm as of noon Monday. , hopefully just a fair guess.
I could be wrong. For the latest information, please refer to the National Weather Service forecast offices in Mobile, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville.
But overall, there are signs every day that a historic winter storm is approaching the Panhandle. Daytime temperatures Wednesday will be in the 30s, returning to the 20s Wednesday night, meaning dangerous moving conditions including hard-to-see black ice will begin from west to east Tuesday into Thursday morning. It is possible that this will continue.
Stay home as much as humanely possible, and if you’re an adult, enjoy a nice cup of hot cocoa. If you’re a kid (or even a kid at heart), enjoy the sacrament of youth called a snow day.
In general, society along the Gulf Coast from Houston to Tallahassee is unlikely to function on Tuesday and Wednesday, even by recent low standards.
Stay safe, stay warm, and keep watching the skies…looking for flakes!
Dr. Ryan Turchelut is the lead meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee startup that provides advanced weather and climate analysis, forensic meteorology and expert witness consulting, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscription services. For more information, visit weathertiger.com or contact ryan@weathertiger.com.
