A new poll of voters across Florida by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) shows Republican gubernatorial candidates Casey DeSantis and Byron Donald have a similar lead over Democrats David Jolly and Jerry Demings. Respondents were also asked about their voting choices for Florida Attorney General and Florida U.S. Senator, as well as a number of policy issues affecting their state.
Voters in the 2026 midterm elections were asked to choose between one Democratic and one Republican gubernatorial candidate in a series of head-to-head contests. Based on previous poll numbers, Republican candidates include Casey DeSantis and Byron Donald, while Democrats include David Jolly and Jerry Demings. Both cases received 47% of the vote, with Mr. DeSantis leading by 13 points over Mr. Jolie (34%) and 11 points over Mr. Demings (36%). Donald’s head-to-head performance was nearly identical, with his 45% rating 11 points ahead of Jolly (34%) and 12 points ahead of Demings (34%).
“There’s still a year until the midterm elections, and there are a significant number of voters who have yet to make a decision,” said UNF PORL Dean and Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Binder. “Right now, it looks like both Republicans are leading anyone on the Democratic side by more than 10 points.”
Regarding the Florida Senate race, 49% of respondents said they would support incumbent Republican Ashley Moody if the election were held today, while 38% supported Democrat Jennifer Jenkins. 10% said they did not know who they would vote for. When asked who they would vote for if the attorney general election were held today, 45% of respondents said they would vote for Republican incumbent James Usmayer, 36% said they would vote for Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez, and 14% were undecided.
“In both the Senate and attorney general races, people generally vote along party lines,” Binder said. “In a state that gets redder with each election cycle, Mr. Usmayer and Mr. Moody also benefit from incumbency.” “Mr. Moody has likely gained even more recognition as a result of his national attention as a successor to current Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate.”
Respondents were also asked what they thought was the most important issue facing Florida today. The most common response was housing costs (14%), followed by property insurance (12%) and property taxes (11%). The economy and employment also topped the list at 11%, as did political division and polarization at 10%.
“Concerns about housing and its associated costs – property taxes and insurance – have come to the forefront in recent years. It’s bipartisan. It seems like one thing that Florida voters can all agree on is that rents, mortgages, are too expensive,” Binder said.
Respondents were then given a list of common sources of information and asked to indicate whether they thought the information they provided was mostly true (accurate), false (but trying to be accurate), or false (deliberately misleading). Medical researchers’ answers were reported to be the most truthful, at 47%. CNN media had the highest numbers:
This percentage indicates that 43% are mostly lying, slightly higher than the Fox News media figure of 39%. When asked about Donald Trump, 42% of respondents said they thought most of the information he provided was true, while 39% said most of it was lies. Twelve percent said they think President Trump is mostly wrong.
“These numbers reflect the decline in trust in the media we’ve seen in recent years, with CNN perceived to be a bigger liar than Fox News among registered Republicans, and vice versa among Democrats,” Binder said. “When it comes to the president, 71% of Republicans think he mostly tells the truth, 12% are willing to let the president be wrong, but 9% say the information he gives is mostly lies.”
Respondents were also asked whether they thought the Justice Department should release all files related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, and an overwhelming majority (83%) said yes. Only 9% said they shouldn’t, and 8% said they don’t know. In a related question, when asked whether they approved of the Trump administration’s response to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, 32% said they strongly or somewhat approved, and 57% said they disapproved. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that President Donald Trump was criminally involved in the Jeffrey Epstein case, with 45% saying it was at least somewhat likely, and 43% saying it was unlikely.
“The Epstein case has been a hot topic lately, and it’s not surprising that people want the Justice Department to release the file or not allow it to handle the case,” Binder said. “What’s interesting is that 12% of respondents who said they had a favorable impression of Mr. Trump also said there was at least some possibility that he was criminally involved in the Epstein case. This is not a large number, but a significant number of Mr. Trump’s supporters have doubts but support him nonetheless.”
When asked what they thought of President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration in the United States, 54% said they strongly or somewhat approved, while 44% disapproved. Regionally, respondents’ support was highest in North Florida and rural areas and lowest in South Florida and urban areas.
Respondents were also asked whether they supported or opposed a bill that would give terminally ill patients, who are judged by two doctors to have less than six months to live, the right to request and receive a prescription for life-ending drugs. This is an option only available to patients who are autonomous, able to make their own medical decisions, and able to self-administer their medications. More than twice as many people said they supported the proposed bill (63%) as opposed it (28%).
Respondents were then asked whether they supported or opposed Florida eliminating all childhood vaccination requirements. Almost two-thirds of Floridians strongly or somewhat oppose the proposed policy changes. About half of respondents (48%) strongly disagreed, and a further 14% somewhat disagreed. About a third of the sample strongly (20%) or somewhat (14%) support eliminating vaccine mandates.
“Florida’s Surgeon General is following RFK Jr.’s lead in the fight against vaccines, but there does not appear to be significant support among Florida voters,” Binder commented. “As you might expect, support among those who favored RFK was much higher than among those who didn’t. What’s a little more surprising is that even among those who said they thought most medical researchers were lying, 46% opposed eliminating the vaccination mandate, while 52% supported it.”
Additionally, respondents were told that, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Local Government Finances (ALFIN), local governments in Florida generate approximately $40 billion annually in revenue from property taxes, all of which is paid to local governments across the state. When asked if they supported or opposed eliminating property taxes for Florida homeowners, 49% said they strongly or somewhat supported it, while 43% opposed it.
“Interestingly, support for property tax exemptions is about the same among homeowners and renters,” Binder said. “I think renters understand that the extra expenses tend to trickle down. Housing costs are at the top of the list of Florida issues, so everyone feels it.”
Finally, respondents were told that for criminal convictions that result in the death penalty, under certain circumstances, Florida’s new law allows any method of execution that is not deemed unconstitutional. He then asked what method of execution should be the default in Florida. Respondents who volunteered not to support the death penalty were treated as “refusers” in this analysis but reported in the cross-tabulations. The top choice for the default method of execution was lethal injection (55%), followed by firing (6%) and electrocution (6%).
“This bill caught the attention of a lot of people and quietly went into effect this summer,” Binder said. “Remember, no method of execution has ever been ruled unconstitutional by the United States Supreme Court, which leaves the door open to other methods, including firing, decapitation, and even stoning.”
For full survey results, please see the crosstab table below.
methodology
The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll consisted of a random sample of 728 likely voters and was conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) from October 15 to October 25, 2025. Questions regarding attorney general and senatorial elections were sponsored by Florida Watch, and questions regarding medical assistance were sponsored by Florida End of Life Options. The sampling frame consisting of phone numbers was obtained from the September 2025 update of Florida’s voter file. A voter is considered a “likely” if they voted in either the 2020, 2022, or 2024 primary elections, or the 2022 general election. Respondents who said they “probably won’t” or “definitely won’t vote” in the 2026 midterm elections were excluded from the survey. To ensure a representative sample, Florida’s 10 designated media market areas (DMAs) were stratified into 18 different tiers by geography and urbanicity, and Miami-Dade County was separated into its own tier due to its unique population. The survey was conducted in English and Spanish.
Respondents were contacted by a live caller by phone between 5pm and 9pm Monday through Friday and 1pm and 5pm on Saturday, with up to three callback attempts. Data collection took place at a PORL facility equipped with a 40-station computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. One interviewer used a hand dial to ask for the names of voters on the list. If the contact information was incorrect or the voter listed was absent, the interview was terminated. The response rate for this study using the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) response rate 3 (RR3) calculation was 3.3%.
The weighting process had two steps. All data is weighted by educational attainment, followed by partisan registration, age, race and ethnicity, gender, and geographic class to match the active population of likely Florida voters. Weights for geography, partisan registration, gender, race and ethnicity, and age were created from the Florida Voter File. Education weights are calculated using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) 2023 5-year estimates for individuals age 25 and older, and education weights are 1 for those under age 25. All weights were calculated and applied using the rake weighting function in SPSS version 27, with a weight of 1 assigned if any of the weighting variables were missing. The overall margin of sampling error is +/-4.25 percentage points, including the estimated design effect of weighting. Estimates for smaller subpopulations have larger margins of error, indicating greater uncertainty in the data. It is important to note that sampling error is only one potential source of error. This and all other polls are subject to unmeasured real-world errors.
PORL is a full-service research laboratory that provides customized research to meet each client’s individual needs, from political, economic, social, and cultural projects. Founded in 2001, PORL is an independent, nonpartisan center that is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiatives and a member of the Association of Academic Research Organizations. As a member of AAPOR, PORL’s goal is to support healthy and ethical practices in society.
Conducting surveys and public opinion polls. For more information on the methodology, please contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or (904) 620-2784.
About the University of North Florida The University of North Florida is a nationally ranked university located on a beautiful 1,381-acre campus in Jacksonville, surrounded by nature. UNF enrolls nearly 17,000 students and features six outstanding colleges offering innovative programs in high-demand fields. UNF students receive personalized attention from faculty and gain valuable real-world experience engaging with community partners. A premier public university, UNF prepares students to make a difference in Florida and around the world. For more information, please visit www.unf.edu.
