Since President Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the chaotic changes have overturned all federal agencies, and Social Security is no exception despite its long-standing status as the “third railroad” in American politics.
During the campaign, Trump pledged not to cut benefits to eligible recipients, and the White House said in a March 11 press release that “the Trump administration will not cut benefits for Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid.” And so far it has held the pledge to keep benefits levels untouched.
However, in the weeks since the administration began, changes to regulations and staff cuts have already been announced that could affect service levels, particularly for some of the program’s most vulnerable applicants and beneficiaries. This happens when a record cohort of Americans is bumping into the traditional retirement age, a four-year bubble of deceased infant boomers who have come to be known as the “Peak 65.”
Meanwhile, rhetoric from within the administration escalated. In a podcast interview on February 28th, billionaire Elon Musk, a “special government employee” in charge of Social Security’s “largest Ponzi scheme of history,” so-called government efficiency, or Doge. Trump himself argued in his recent speech to Congress that his administration is finding “a shocking level and fraud of incompetence and fraud” in Social Security.
Social Security is the only largest line item in the national budget. In 2024, $1.5 trillion was spent on the program. In September 2024, 51.5 million retired workers received an average of $1,922 benefits. However, the program offers services beyond retirement. Also included in September 2024 are recipients.
According to the AARP, 40% of older Americans rely on Social Security for more than half of their family income, while 14% rely on the program for more than 90% of their income.
With the rising number of disastrous warnings about the future of Social Security, Martin O’Malley, the SSA’s commissioner until last November, told MSNBC this week that the current administration’s actions could lead to “a system breakdown.” Here are five things to look at as the new administration is trying to cut costs for Social Security programs.
Staff reduction
When Trump took office, the Social Security Agency (SSA) had 57,000 employees. On February 28, SSA announced that it aimed to reduce its personnel to 50,000. Even before cuts, Social Security is understaffed for 50 years – when the retired ranks are growing at a record-breaking pace and people are generally living longer.
For comparison, SSA data showed that in 1995 there were 62,504 SSA employees and 43.4 million beneficiaries. This is the proportion of approximately 694 beneficiaries per employee. Applying 68.5 million beneficiaries in 2024 to SSA’s new staff target of 50,000, the ratio will be nearly doubled from 1,369 to 1.
Of course, the Internet has been around since 1995 and can perform many functions online, such as changing your address or phone number, accessing benefits confirmations, and starting or changing direct deposits. However, not all seniors have access to the internet. PewResearchCenter estimates that 10% of Americans over the age of 65 are not internet users. Overall, millions of beneficiaries still rely on one-on-one help, especially for more complicated questions. According to AARP, the average time for disability claims has already doubled for four to eight months.
Telephone service changes
Trump’s Social Security Chairman Lee Dudeck has enacted two key process changes: SSA aims to combat fraud and identity theft, but it can complicate the issue for many new applicants and current beneficiaries, especially those with limited mobility.
On March 12, SSA announced it would no longer handle changes to direct deposits via telephone, saying, “Around 40% of Social Security direct deposit scams have called SSA to change their direct deposit bank information.” Currently, changes must be made online (using two-factor authentication) or at your local Social Security Agency. On March 18, SSA announced in an internal memo from SSA’s vice-chairman of operations, Doris Diaz, it would take steps to implement a “stronger identity verification procedure,” known as “Internet ID proof.” Under the change, anyone looking to apply for retirement or disability benefits is required to verify their identity online first. Those who cannot do so should visit the field office.
Her memo was first reported on March 17 by the March 17 newsletter Pomolal.info, and Diaz estimated that the latter change would result in “approximately 75,000 to 85,000 additional visitors a week” visiting the field office, presenting a “increasing challenge for a vulnerable population.” At the same time, the memo says, “lower risk of fraud and fewer inappropriate payments.”
Field office crowded
One major change in social security policy was made in December before Trump took office. To reduce the waiting time, we requested an appointment rather than a drop-in visit at the field office. A December blog post from SSA states that drop-in visits will still be housed, but most languages on the SSA site indicate that the office is “requiring an appointment for in-person services.”
To obtain an in-person appointment, you will need to call the main Social Security Line (1-800-772-1213). The phone call usually lasts more than 2 hours. According to online sources, available reservation dates are usually more than one month. And that’s before the above-mentioned phone policy changes take effect.
There have also been contradictory reports from within the Trump administration about the possibility of public officials closing. The Associated Press has looked at the list of cancelled government leases listed on the DOGE site and identified 47 SSA offices that are scheduled to close.
When contacted, the SSA Press Office provided a list of 64 “soft leases” that were due to be cancelled. Some are not public offices. Of them, all are listed as small “permanent remote sites” reserved for hearings. According to the SSA, most hearings take place remotely and no longer require a hearing room (usually housed within a field office).
It is provided through a Doge and SSA overlap, but not identical. According to SSA Press Office, there are “approximately 1,200 field offices” today.
Changes to overpayment policy
Sometimes Social Security is mistakenly overpaying the recipient, and government agencies are required by law to collect the funds they have overpaid. So, once an overpayment was identified, the SSA historically withheld 100% of future benefit checks until the amount of the overpayment was collected. This means that beneficiaries can see all of their monthly checks.
President Joe Biden changed his recovery rate to 10%, so overpayments are curtailed over time. Under Dudek, a 100% recovery will take effect as of March 27th. The SSA says accelerated repayments work to accommodate people who are creating difficulties, but beneficiaries must call or visit the office.
A 2024 report from the Social Security Office’s Inspector’s Office estimated that $72 billion in “inappropriate payments” were made between 2015 and 2022, accounting for less than 1% of all benefits paid during that period. SSA estimates that policy changes will help recover an additional $7 billion a year.
Long-term viability of the program
Social Security’s volatile long-term funding status is not an issue created by Trump, but one of his policy proposals could make it worse. Social Security is a program in which current workers pay designated payroll taxes to take on benefits to current retirees. However, due to our aging population, there is an increasing imbalance between the number of workers and retirees. The current ratio of eligible workers to beneficiaries has decreased by half since 1960.
Since 2010, the money entering Social Security through payroll taxes has not reached the money to leave to pay benefits. In 2023, the shortfall was $41 billion, which was paid through two trust funds established in 1940 and 1957, respectively. These trust funds are expected to dry out in 2035 unless changes are made to reinforce the system. If the trust fund is gone, Social Security will only be able to pay around 83% of the planned benefits.
Important steps to correct funding gaps include increasing retirement age, raising payroll taxes, or eliminating the maximum Social Security payroll tax cap paid over a year. The act passed by Congress in 1983 gradually increased the retirement age from 65 to the present 67. No such proposals are found in the table from the current administration.
But Trump pledged in his campaign, and again in his recent speech to Congress, he pledged to eliminate income taxes on Social Security benefits. About half of recipients are currently paying taxes on some of their benefits, and if Trump succeeds, we will see the entire tax bill fall. However, this move will help exacerbate the systemic problems as these tax revenues (total of $51 billion in 2023) were returned to payment benefits.
In its February report, Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania estimated that eliminating social security benefits taxes would cut the lifespan of the trust fund for two years, moving estimates of forecast depletion dates from December 2034 to December 2032, increasing federal obligations by 7% in 2054.
Social Security Articles Based on Trump: Five warning signs were originally published in Nerdwallet.
Original issue: March 25th, 2025 2:05pm EDT
