Steve Karnowski and Kristin M. Hall, Associated Press
WAVERLEY, Minnesota (AP) — Minnesota Farmer Dangressing is not ready to be upset by President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Farm Country voted heavily for Trump last November. Now, Gresting and many other farmers are eagerly eagerly waiting for the Republican president’s dispute with China and other international markets.
China typically buys about one row of four Minnesota soy crops, bringing $13 billion in soybeans from the US in the past year to around $13 billion. It’s an important market as more than half of soybeans are exported internationally, and about half of them go to China.
Last month, Trump raised US tariffs on products from China to 145%, with China retaliating at 125%. However, Monday’s announcement of a 90-day ceasefire between the two countries supported the resistance of many farmers to press the panic button.
The better news is that an updated forecast from the US Department of Agriculture on Monday predicted only higher corn exports and slightly lower corn prices. The report also predicts that soybean exports are slightly lower but domestic consumption will increase and prices will rise. Soybean futures have skyrocketed.
After finishing planting the soybeans on Monday, Gresting said he was excited by the news and would like to see more progress. But he said he wasn’t really surprised.
Customs, weather and other uncertainties
On a bright, sunny day last week, when he began planting soybeans, Gresting said tariffs were just one of the things he was concerned about and not necessarily the biggest. Agriculture is, after all, a company built on loose soil, weather whims and other out-of-control factors.
“Are I worried about tariffs? Yes, I mean, there’s the uncertainty that comes with it,” Gresting said. “Are these poor product prices the number one driving factor for the last two years? No.”
He towed a planter inserting seeds into the stubble of last year’s corn crop as he piloted a 25-year-old Case Ih tractor on a gentle rolling field near the town of Waverly. As he lay down the long line he passed the pond where wild swans paddled.
The riding shotgun was Georgie, a Corgi. The Corgi alternated between walking around his taxi and half-roaming his legs.
Perhaps more skeptical than Gressing is one of many soybean farmers in Tennessee, who pays close attention to the trade war. On Monday, he said that ripple effects on farmers may still be coming.
“We’re just going to have a 90-day suspension,” Griggs said. “Who knows what’s coming after that?”
Joe Janzen, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, said the commodity market has largely shaken up the initial shock of the trade war, including Trump’s declaration on April 2 as the “liberation day.”
“Our market is mainly rebounding and we’ve returned around April 2nd,” Janzen said. “The tariffs have not yet had a major impact on prices.”
Even what might seem good news, the ideal planting conditions across most of the Midwest – have their drawbacks. The potential for a larger crop sent prices down, Gresting pointed out. High interest rates, seeds and fertilizer costs pose additional challenges.
“There are many other factors besides the tariffs and my market price,” Gresting said.
Looking for signs of progress
But Gresting said he was encouraged by news of a trade deal with the UK that morning, and hopes that the current uncertainty in consultations with China and other countries will ultimately lead to better trade deals going forward.
Gresting had finished planting the other half of the fields he was renting from his father’s cousin the previous day, split into 45 acres of corn and 45 acres of beans. It is the farm where his grandfather grew up, and it is part of the approximately 700 acres he planted on average. He was locked up in a planting decision a few months ago as he traded seeds, fertilizers and other supplies.
Back at his “home farm” where his late grandfather’s house, made of local bricks, was still standing, and the cacophony of the house’s sparrow song filled the sky, Gress was pleased to find the first corn signs he had planted there about ten days before he plunged into the soil.
Waverly is about an hour’s west of Minneapolis. Its most famous resident was former Democrat Vice President Hubert Humphrey. It is in the Congressional district represented by Republican House majority Whip Tom Emmer.
Gresting’s post as chairman of the Minnesota Farm Bureau also touches on other influential politicians. He and his wife, Sheena, were guests of Capitol Sen. Amy Klobuchar for Trump’s inauguration in January. Gresting refused to say who he voted for.
Gres has three children, about 75 dairy cows, grown in a combination of milk, corn, soy and parcels owned or rented by alfalfa. He mainly uses alfalfa and corn to feed his cows. He sells soybeans to Mankato processing plants, where it becomes a soybean meal that is added to animal feed. His cow’s milk goes to the Cooperative Cheese Factory in Litchfield and sells it internationally.
Gresting has locked up local buyers and does not export his crops directly, so he is partially mitigated from the volatility of the global market. However, he quickly points out that everything in the agricultural economy is interconnected.
Lessons learned during Trump’s first trade war
On his farm near Humboldt, Tennessee, almost in the middle of Memphis and Nashville, Griggs overcome the 2018 trade war during Trump’s first term, and this time feels more prepared.
“In 2018, prices were roughly the same as current prices, and the trade war with China led to prices falling by around 15%,” he said. “They fell sharply and quickly fell, so we lost a lot of demand from China.”
Griggs said exports to China will never fully recover. However, he does not believe that the current conflict will be nearly dramatic.
Griggs, who grows about 1,600 acres of cotton, corn, soy and wheat, said the tariffs are just one consideration as they planned this year’s crop. Cultivating a variety of crops minimizes the weather, unstable prices and the risks associated with the outlook for a trade war now.
Griggs said it intends to monitor opportunities to sell when market volatility causes price increases.
“The main thing I learned in 2018 is that if there is a price period where prices have risen, take advantage of it rather than waiting for it to go higher,” Griggs said. “When it comes to tariffs and everything, the market can be very unpredictable, so my lesson was, “Don’t hold back because of a home run, be happy with the double.” ”
He said a temporary grant, known as the Market Facilitation Program, would help soy farmers withstand some of their previous losses could be useful if something similar revived this year. However, he said that farmers do not want to make a living from government subsidies.
“We want fair access to the market,” Griggs said. “And the fair prices of the products we produce.”
Associated videographer Christine M. Hall was reported from Humboldt, Tennessee. AP videographer Mark Vancleave also contributed from Waverly.
Original issue: May 13th, 2025, 12:47pm EDT
