Colombia spirals towards a “failed state” under exploding cartel violence: Experts

Drug cartels are tightening Colombia’s grip amidst failed peace initiatives, economic stagnation and forced recruitment into terrorist groups, experts say.

More than two years later, clashes between terrorist groups and police have declined, but violence between cartels and forced recruitment has increased.

“You might argue that Petro, who organized the ceasefire, contributed to this and allowed these groups to be more organized,” Tigianobreda, a senior analyst in Latin America and the Caribbean, told senior Caribbean analysts in the Places of Armed Conflicts and Event Data.

Breda shared insights into Colombia’s aggravated crime dynamics.

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For now, he said the cartels and their ruptured groups are now more focused on fighting each other than the nation. Breda also observed that the conflict was “hyperlocalized” while working at a location in Colombia.

“They are fighting more for control of each other. The relationships between groups are not only constantly changing, they are within the group,” Breda said.

Illegal mining and drug trafficking are one of the main activities used in the bankrolling of cartel activities in Colombia, particularly in Norte de Santander Province.

The Catatambo region of Norte de Santander, near Colombia’s shared border with Venezuela, is one of the country’s heaviest drug trafficking areas. It is also the hub of the National Liberation Army (ELN) terrorist groups.

Peter reopened Colombian border with Venezuela in 2022 after the previous administration cut diplomatic relations in 2019. Since then, illegal activities have skyrocketed, prompting police to criticize Peter’s decision to create more open access in areas with a difficult history.

Furthermore, conflicts between terrorist groups have worsened. “We recorded over 660 conflicts between armed groups in Peter’s first 30 months,” Breda said. This is a 40% increase from the previous administration.

Reports of escalation between Colombian military and the ELN challenged Peter’s “full peace” agreement with terrorist groups after ELN threatened Colombian government with “full war.”

In a March 9 interview with AFP, the two ELN members who called themselves “Riccardo” and “Silvana Guerrero” said they were willing to resume their fight against the nation.

“As more forces continue to arrive on the territory (catatumbo), the conflict will likely continue as we protect ourselves,” Ricardo said.

Analysts say it was inevitable after the reopening of the border with Venezuela.

“For me, Peter’s policy and security approach was a major issue, and it continued to open the border with Venezuela,” Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, told the Epoch Times.

Ellis said, “We basically had two neighbors (Colombia and Venezuela), and both of the criminal situations were out of hand, so these two criminal economies were able to integrate flows and collaboration.”

He said the real tragedy was that since the time of former President Ernesto Samper in the 1990s, Colombia has lost all the progress it has made in institutional corruption and narco trafficking.

“Columbia was on a pretty decent truck, but now we’re back to where it’s under the Thumpers,” Ellis said.

During the Thumper era, Ellis said the US intelligence agency believed that the FARC would take control of the entire country due to widespread influence within the government.

Thumper’s administration was shaken by scandal in the mid-1990s after allegations came to light that the former Colombian head of state had been paid by the drug cartel. The claim led to the cancellation of Thumper’s US visa.

According to Ellis, Colombia has returned to the same boat under Peter.

“What I argue is that with all that progress (since Thumper), we are back to where you have rampaging corruption. You have a noble army with the capacity to be hampered by the disruption of policy that spreads across the country,” Ellis said.

He added that the issue of Colombian terrorists and drug cartels is complicated, but is a direct result of failure of government policies to control the situation.

Ellis said the Coca subsidy program, which encouraged the removal of factories as cash crops, is a good example. According to Ellis, production is actually “ratchet-up” across the country, as there was an incentive to get more money based on the amount of Coca crops that were eradicated.

“It was driven by a reduction in conflict between the national and armed (terrorist) forces,” Breda said of allegedly improving violent crime.

He also said that trends were recorded only after the massive spikes of violent crimes in 2022, and that some areas did not mark actual improvements.

“During their departure, there was a massacre, targeted killings of leaders and family members being killed.”

The same agency also observed videos on social media showing how these conflicts between terrorist groups affected civilians. The clip reportedly includes a shootout, people fleeing for life, and a teacher evacuating schools.

In the first half of 2024 alone, there were 159 registered cases of forced recruitment into illegal armed groups.

Breda agrees to this assessment. “It’s a very difficult phenomenon to track and is very underreported. Forced recruitment is a natural expansion of the workforce (in the cartels),” he said.

Ellis added that Columbia’s lack of gang leadership prosecution is “out of control” and contributes to the issue of forced recruitment.

“The kids who get caught up in these nets become part of these organizations,” he said.

The overcrowding of prisons in Colombia is believed to contribute to a vicious feedback loop of crime, while providing fertile status to cartel recruitment.

Ellis said the various gang splits in prison could end up working together while they were stuck nearby. This is how the notorious Venezuelan cartel started.

“It’s the way you got Tren de Aragua. It started out as a prison gang,” Ellis said.