With substantial economic support and market access, “province visits will not change local courses,” analysts said.
The Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping embarked on his first overseas trip in 2025, courting three Southeast Asian countries amid rising trade tensions with the US.
However, analysts said there is unlikely to be a breakthrough.
“Xi Jinping’s trip is intended to regain trust among local partners and show China is isolated,” Professor Sun Kuo-Hsiang of Taiwan’s Southern University told the Epoch era before Xi arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam on April 14.
But the reality is a little more complicated.
“Southeast Asian countries tend to avoid picking up the sides,” San said. “They look on the surface Chinese friendly, but they hold reservations under their facade.”
He said for China to have a real impact, “it has to provide substantial economic support and access to the market, otherwise a mere state visit will not change the tide of the region.”
Related Stories
The trip comes with growing tensions between China and the US after a series of Tatt tariffs increased last week.
Huang Chung-Ting is a Chinese and Southeast Asian relations expert at the National Defense and Security Institute, a think tank based in Taipei, Taiwan, and is funded by the Taiwanese government.
According to him, “This trip actually means a different meaning given the high tariffs the US has imposed on relevant countries, including China.”
Among XI itinerary destinations, Vietnam and Cambodia are at the top of the US mutual tariff list, facing 46% and 49% taxes, respectively, but these tariffs have been postponed until July.
Huang told the Epoch Times that such a large tariff would look like a warning message.
Huang said if these countries continue to work with China, “to help Chinese products go a long way to the US under labels of different origins and avoid US tariffs.”
“Xi Jinping is trying to bring these Southeast Asian countries closer through his visit, but they also have to carefully consider the potential risk of being too closely allied with China,” he said.
Vietnam
At the first stop in Hanoi, XI was hosted by Vietnam’s top leader.
On April 14, after their initial engagement, Xi and Lam witnessed the signing of 45 memorandum cooperation between China and Vietnam. According to statements from both sides, the contracts span multiple areas, including supply chains, artificial intelligence and agricultural products.
Despite this solidarity show, analysts said they believe the relationship between the two communist neighbors may not be as close as it looks.
“It is unlikely that Vietnam will be perfectly in line with Xi Jinping’s expectations,” Huang said before XI’s departure to Malaysia.
What illustrates that is the fact that Vietnam was one of the first countries to reach out to President Donald Trump for tariff negotiations, Huang said.
On April 4th, Lamb and Trump had a phone conversation, during which they agreed to explore tariff removal options. Then, on April 8, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced that he had pledged to increase the purchase of US goods in return, demanding a large delay in the tariffs introduced by Trump on April 2.
Huang said Vietnam is particularly concerned about the trade relations with the US (its biggest export market and major security alliance), a shared sentiment by other Southeast Asian countries.
US President Donald Trump will meet Vietnamese Prime Minister nguyen Xuan Phuc on May 31, 2017 in an oval office. Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images
“It’s no longer about easing Beijing or fearing anger,” he said. “In fact, these countries are weighing the impact on exports and economic growth. They ask themselves, “Is there a problem first?” ”
Yeh Yao-Yuan, a professor at St. Thomas University in Houston, said during the Epoch era, in addition to trade, territorial disputes in the South China Sea also affect the way Vietnam and other Asian countries approach Beijing.
The Chinese administration has also argued for the entire South China Sea, a region that claims rights to coral reefs, islands and atolls.
If Beijing continues to actively pursue territorial claims in the South China Sea, it “will further alienate our neighbors,” Yeh said.
Trump said later on April 14 that the debate between XI and LAM focused on how to hurt Washington.
Yi Ru and Luo Ya contributed to this report.
