As political tensions continue to rise, predictions that Canadian travelers are escaping Central Florida are becoming real, with hotel bookings dropping and airlines expanding backflights as demand drops.
Sandra Pappas, who owns a Disney-centric travel agency in Canada, said she began to notice a recession in February. That’s when President Donald Trump unleashed the threat of imposing drastic tariffs and turning the nation into a 51st state.
“Unfortunately, there was a massive drop-off for future trips,” said Pappas, a mouse click. “With the exception of Covid, it’s quieter than I’ve seen before.”
She estimated that requests for travel estimates to Orlando theme parks have fallen by more than 50%. To adapt, her business is challenging other Disney-themed holidays, such as Disney cruises departing from Disneyland Paris and Vancouver.
The impact may be substantial. In 2024, around 3.3 million Canadians visited Florida, becoming the largest source of international tourists, making it about 2% of tourists.
However, this year, pre-hotel bookings from Canadians in the Central Florida region fell 9% this year, compared to the previous year, compared to 9% in April and 35.1% in May, according to data from the regional tourism marketing agency Visit Orlando.
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A visit to Orlando CEO Casandra Matej, along with Trump’s tariff announcement, believes it will slow Canada’s travel demand and slow the economy.
Orlando’s overall visits remain strong so far, but travel outlook is bleak with uncertainty about stock market volatility and Trump’s trade agenda. Still, Orange County hotel tax revenues hit record highs in February, and Orlando’s Advanced Hotel booking data is scheduled for April and May, considering all tourists. Universal Studios’ planned May opens the Epic Universe, the first new theme park in the Orlando area for a quarter-century, topped those numbers.
“We’re seeing a slowdown from Canada, but we’re still seeing continued interest and bookings from other markets,” Matej says. “As one market slows down, others present opportunities.”
Canada’s travel statistics also show a decline in visits to the US from that country. In March, Canadians returning home from a US trip fell 13.5% from the same month last year. Return trips by car fell by another nearly 32%.
Gov. Ron DeSantis claims Canadians will continue to visit. Earlier this month, he dismissed reports that Trump’s backlash would keep them apart, noting that he met many Canadians while his family’s outings to Legoland.
“I think, ‘I thought, ‘I thought you guys weren’t coming to Florida anymore.’ ” “Oh, no, we love Florida.” So we’ll continue to be our destination,” he recalls.
But Rabbi Jain, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer, said that wasn’t what he was hearing. He said avoiding our trips has become an act of national pride for Canadians.
“They are expressing their complaints about some of the president’s comments in their own feet and travel dollars. … They certainly don’t want to post their friends on social media.
Canadian immigration lawyers say fear is driving some of the decline following high-profile reports that Canada and European visitors were detained or deported as part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration.
Actions by officials from both countries also prevent Canadian tourists from looking south.
The Canadian government has updated its US travel advisories, warning Canadians to “expect scrutiny at ports of entry, including electronics.” Border agents have the power to search for phones and laptops, but authorities say such actions are extremely rare, with less than 0.01% of international visitors arriving are subject to such scrutiny.
In a statement, Vice Chairman Hilton Beckham, Customs and Border Patrol Commissioner, searches will be conducted to detect digital smuggling, terrorism-related content and information that “plays an important role in national security.”
“All allegations that political beliefs cause inspections and removals are unfounded and irresponsible,” Beckham said.
Heather Segal, founder of Toronto’s Segal Immigration Act, also has new rules that require Canadian visitors who have been staying for more than 30 days to register with the US government to affect snowbirds who spend the winter registering with the US government.
Without unusual circumstances, travelers will be automatically registered when they fly to the US. However, some travelers from Canada crossing the land border may not have the required I-94 form issued and may have to register on their own, otherwise they could face a $5,000 fine or serious penalty, including a prison for up to six months, Segall said.
“The message being sent to Canadians is, “We’re not interested in you. We’re not close friends anymore,” she said of rhetoric and confusion over Trump’s new border rules.
The airline is responding. Air Canada plans to reduce the frequency of flights between Orlando and Toronto. WestJet, another Canadian airline, has stopped the route between Edmonton and Orlando.
“WestJet has observed that bookings between Canada and the US route between Canada and other solar destinations, such as Mexico and the Caribbean,” said Josh Yates, a spokesman for the airline.
However, Canada has not given up on the Orlando market. Porter Airlines’ capabilities for Orlando remain the same year-on-year, with early bookings for summer trips rising, spokeswoman Robin van Theunenbroke said. Flair Airlines is set to resume its winter seasonal route between Orlando, Toronto and nearby Kitchener Waterloo in October.
“Oh, no, we love Florida”: DeSantis dismisses the idea Canadians will move away from the nation
Sean Sneis, an economist at the University of Central Florida, said he is monitoring the impact of tariffs and federal layoffs he has on the broader US economy. The recession will have a much greater impact on tourism than a travel boycott in Canada, he said.
Snaice said optimistic Canadians will return once political rhetoric is diminished and emotions fades.
“It’s still cold in Canada,” he said. “How much are you going to punish yourself because you’re angry about what the politicians did?”
Pappas said he insists to his future clients that Walt Disney World is the perfect place to escape politics and the news.
“When you enter these park gates, you forget everything,” she said. “People still feel they should go. Walt’s vision was to escape the world and go to Disney World.”
