Terry Chia and Amy Taxin
NEWMAN, Calif. (AP) — California almond growers are used to dealing with swings in the weather and water supply. Now they must also tackle trade war uncertainty as the Trump administration imposes tariffs on goods from several countries and weights are added to the list.
With more than three-quarters of California’s almond crops heading for export, tariffs could affect where nuts are heading, sending ripple effects across the state’s economy, experts said. The state is the world’s largest producer of almonds, accounting for around 80% of the world’s supply.
Already, China has responded to Trump’s moves by raising tariffs on US almonds. That’s on top of the tariffs imposed on nuts in the last Trump administration.
“When we launch a trade war with India, the European Union and parts of the Middle East, California’s almond industry will suffer dramatically,” said Colin Carter, an agricultural economist and professor emeritus at the University of California, Davis. “Prices will fall further, orchards will burst, and farms will be lost. There will be farms to sell across the valley.”
Just a few weeks later, President Donald Trump slapped 10% tariffs in China, delaying 30 days and threatening a 25% tax on goods from Canada and Mexico. He also threatens to widen the trade war by imposing mutual tariffs on many products, in line with what other countries charge for US goods.
Meanwhile, Trump’s move has elicited retaliation from US trading partners. For example, China says that while rice chicken, wheat, corn and cotton face 15% tariffs, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and dairy products will face an additional 10%.
Almonds are California’s largest agricultural export, with the state being caught up in $4.7 billion from almond exports in 2022, with about half going to the European Union and India, state farm data shows.
Almond experts said California’s keys will continue to pursue a variety of export markets. “While China continues to be an important market, it is essential that we maintain a diverse export program, as California almonds are shipped to more than 100 destinations.”
Many California farmers in the crop-rich Central Valley have welcomed some of Trump’s other policies aimed at getting more water, especially for their fields. The regions that grow much of the country’s fresh produce, including citrus fruits and almonds, are primarily Republicans in the broad, democratic state.
However, California almonds face a total tariff of 35% in China. That’s because Beijing placed tariffs on almonds during Trump’s first administration in response to the tariffs he imposed on Chinese goods. The move has made California almonds relatively more expensive than nuts from Australia, resulting in a market share gained in China, leading to California almond experts falling, experts said.
Since then, many exporters in Almond, California, have said that California buyers are currently scooping up California almonds, according to Zachary Williams, sales director at Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman, California. He said India’s attempt to raise tariffs could be concerned that nuts might be too expensive for consumers out there.
Tariffs are a challenge, he said, but what’s even bigger is the lack of certainty for almond growers who don’t expect to harvest a new orchard for at least three years, and they plan to grow it for the next 20 years.
“Uncertainty is probably more of a problem than the tariffs themselves,” Williams said. “It’s a little hard to plan for uncertainty about whether it’s a bit difficult to plan.”
Taxins reported from Santa Ana, California.
Original issue: March 11, 2025, 3:05pm EDT
