According to some analysts, military training for the Communist regime was a rushed arrangement show.
China’s military exercise to block Taiwan in early April was a political stance targeting domestic audiences in Washington, Taipei and China, analysts said.
On April 1, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command said in an announcement about the Chinese messaging app it was holding joint exercises around Taiwan as a warning and deterrence against what is known as the “Taiwan Independence Separatists.”
The two-day war game came just after US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited India Pacific. guarantee An allies of the US commitment to reestablish effective deterrence in the region.
According to the PLA’s announcement, the exercise involved the PLA’s navy, air, ground and rocket forces. Beijing did not officially name the April 1 drill. On April 2nd, the Eastern Theater Command specified the code name, Strait Thunder-2025a, as long-distance live-action training was conducted in the waters of the East China Sea.
Taiwan’s retired Major General Yu Tsung-Chi said the PLA’s published material appeared to have been caught in the cobblestones together at the final moments, suggesting that the drills were not planned in advance.
Shen Min Xi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute of Defense and Security (INDSR) and former director of the Institute’s National Security Research Division, said the long-range live-action training could have been held somewhere along China’s coastline.
“References to the East China Sea may have been misleading,” he told The Epoch Times. Shen Ming-Shih added that it is “hard to tell” whether the footage shared by the PLA is new.
Military commentator Shen Zhou also said the CCP is working hard to push the story that the so-called long-range rocket artillery movement is part of the blockade movement.
“It’s possible that old videos were used for advertising. The images showed targets on land rather than sea,” he told the Epoch Times, adding, “The so-called war games are still of a political nature.”
Response to US Thaiwan’s policy
In the documents accompanying the announcement of the drill, Pula was called a “parasite” called Taiwan’s President Rai Qingte. Taiwan Issues Office of the Administration I insisted Lai had recently “stoking anti-Chinese sentiment” 17 Point Strategy Countering the penetration of CCP and espionage in Taiwan.
INDSR Research Fellow Su Tzu-Yun, director of the Institute’s Defense Strategy and Resources department, said it is likely that CCP is responding to several events. In particular, the US Department of Defense reported on Taiwan’s prioritization of defense.
Speaking in Manila on March 28, Hegses told reporters that the Trump administration will “really prioritize and shift to this part of the world in an unprecedented way.”
According to Washington Post The next day, the US Secretary of Defense had signed internal guidance instructing senior defense officials to prioritize deterrence from Taiwan’s CCP seizures against risks in other parts of the world. The Epoch Times did not review the documents and contacted the Pentagon for comment.
Such a turnaround is “a transition from an oral commitment to action,” Sue told the Epoch Times. He said the report was “the main reason why China was so unhappy and suddenly held training.”
Another purpose of the drill was to distract attention from corruption within the PLA and the recent downfall of high-ranking PLA staff.
Since CCP leader Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he has launched a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign across the administration, including the PLA.
Campaign, US intelligence newsletter explained It targeted former CCP leader Jiang Zemin’s first target loyalists as “targeting political imperfections and ideological impurities.” However, more recent purges targeted Fujian Clique, one of two groups considered Xi’s ally.
The purge led during the process Speculation On whether Xi’s power is being challenged by political rivals.
Many high-ranking PLA staff have reportedly been arrested since the end of the National People’s Assembly’s annual meeting on March 11th. Lin Xiangyang, commander of the Eastern Theatre Command.
Yu said the arrest of “solid supporters in Xi’s military” shows signs of weakening of Xi’s power. However, the retired major also warned against excluding the possibility that the apparent purge was smoke and a mirror covering preparation for an actual attack.
It’s too dangerous to attack
The CCP has never ruled Taiwan, but it does not recognize Taiwan’s elected government and aims to “unify” the island through peaceful means or forces by means of peace and power. US officials cited information that Xi had directed the PLA to be prepared to seize Taiwan by 2027.
Su said that CCP leaders are willing to forcibly take Taiwan, but such a move is too dangerous for the party.
“If the (PLA) landing fails, it would be a political catastrophe for Xi Jinping and the CCP. They would probably lose the legitimacy of the ruling,” he said.
Su said the possibility of a CCP attack on Taiwan is unlikely unless the administration is confident that it can secure a quick victory, as it is “unable to withstand” the lockdown of one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Shen Ming-Shih said it is unlikely that the CCP will escalate military drills around Taiwan.
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Tammy Bruce, a spokesman for the US Department of State, said the US “supports peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and opposes unilateral changes in the current situation, including power and coercion.”
Yu said leaders of Democratic countries have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that only a swift and determined opposition can stop the totalitarian regime from the mistakes and excessive optimism of third-party countries not intervening in the invasion.
Luo Ya and Frank Fang contributed to this report.
