Airlines will reduce Canadian capacity to Florida flights after Trump drama | Column

Scott Lamb says he is as pro-American as Canadians can get. He grew up in a border town near Buffalo. His dad is a double citizen. He has a cousin close to Vero Beach and often travels to the United States, including Florida.

There’s no more.

Lamb vowed to leave after President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to turn Canada into a 51st province and called the prime minister “governor.” He had planned to visit Naples and Los Angeles, but it was before insults and tariff dramas.

“I’m writing to you from Bermuda!” he said when he contacted him this week. Last month he was in the Cayman Islands, and the month before that he traveled to another Bermuda. He loved it so much that he came back with him this week.

“I won’t go back to the US until I win some kind of sanity,” he said.

Six weeks ago I wrote a pair of columns on Canada-US relations. Over 200 people contacted me, almost all of them are Canadian. Like the lamb, everyone of them said they would leave Florida and at least stop buying as much as possible.

200 people rarely speak across the country. Also, those who take the time to email newspaper columnists are often the most decisive. However, the initial number of moves is backed up by making anecdotes sound.

Airlines flying between Tampa International Airport and Canadian cities reduced seating capacity by 12% in April compared to forecasts made in January.

Other Florida airports have recorded bigger drops. Data from airline tracker Cirium shows seating capacity between Canada and Miami International Airport fell by about 15% on average from April to June, and more than 20% in the same period at Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International.

The CEO of Westjet, Canada’s second-largest airline, said sales of flights between Canada and the US fell 25%. WestJet recently eliminated routes from Edmonton to Orlando, Calgary and New York City.

Aviation news site Simple Flying last week reported that two small airlines, Air Transat and Flair Airlines, had cut flights between Canada and the US by more than 20% between March and October from the previous year.

Some industry insiders believe that demand for flights engaged in the US from Canada will further decrease. Many Canadians traveling in the coming weeks have booked a trip before Trump shamed the country. They risk losing money if they cancel, so some will come despite feeling broken. As the year progresses and its financial incentives fade, more Canadians may choose to book a trip to another country or stay in Canada.

For example, Aviation Analytics Company OAG recently compared last year’s bookings to see what’s going on now. Conclusion: From April to October, bookings for Canada’s US routes fell by a whopping 70%.

Air Canada, the country’s largest airline, rejected the OAG report, saying it had only experienced it as “soft in a cross-border market.” On Monday, Air Canada officials followed up with news that airlines’ flights to Canada and the US had dropped by 10%.

“Are you worried?” Air Canada Chairman Vagn Sørensen said at the annual shareholders meeting on Monday. “Yes, definitely, I’m worried.”

Canada’s rage

While we can discuss the exact figures, the consensus is to expect fewer Canadian bookings than last year.

That doesn’t surprise Matthew German, who lives in Nova Scotia and has visited Florida. He was planning a trip to Disney World in Orlando. Instead, German traveled to Nova Scotia and recently visited London, Paris, Rome, Pompeii and Capri. He plans to buy holiday property in France rather than in the US. He keeps him from purchasing US products and even cancels his Amazon account, a company founded by American billionaire Jeff Bezos.

If Canada continues to be treated poorly, Germanic will not return to the US.

“We estimate that about 80% of our friends and colleagues feel the same way,” he said.

It is easy to assume that Canadians are just intense, their anger fades away and their resolve is eroded. Florida sun and beautiful beaches are invited. Disney World is too much to resist. Kids care much more about Mickey Mouse and Universal Studios’ mummy ride revenge than about political jabs and butter and car prices.

But Germen said, like the others I contacted in this column, Trump’s humiliation and the tariff war was galvanized in a way that Canadians have not experienced in decades. They felt more like one country than after winning the Olympic gold medal in hockey. One non-Genarian said the country felt more united than it was for World War II.

Just two months ago, Canadians seemed ready to wipe out the ruling Liberal Party. Well, in a surprising direction, the liberals were able to stick to power in the federal election on April 28th.

A lot has happened in recent weeks, including the resignation of unpopular liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Mark Carney, who has won Trudeau position as head of the Liberals, has also decided to eliminate the controversial consumer carbon tax. But Trump’s drama appears to play that role. “The biggest problem facing Canadian voters is who can form the best government to address the Trump administration and its trade tariffs,” the Montreal Gazette reported.

“(We’re) a more resolved, passionate, powerful Canada,” said Germain, who felt compelled to give money to political parties for the first time.

Calgary resident Robert Stack said in a first statement from Trump, which was United Canada several months ago. Events over the past few weeks have solidified those feelings.

Canadians are noted that they are being stopped by US immigrant staff. Many know that other countries, including Germany, Denmark, Portugal, the UK and the Netherlands, have issued warnings to citizens that even a small error in the document could lead to detention. In one well-known case, immigration and customs enforcement served as Canadian businessman for two weeks. She traveled frequently around the country without incident.

“Along with my anger, I’m a bit scared now,” Stack said.

The good news is that none of the airlines flying from Canadian cities to Tampa International Airport have ruled out routes. An airport spokesperson also confirmed that new Tampa to Vancouver flights in WestJet and Air Canada are scheduled to begin in June.

Over the past year, Porter Airlines has added flights from Tampa to Canada. The extra capacity should help stabilize the number of Canadian passengers flowing through the airport.

Chris Minner, vice president of airport marketing and aviation services development, added that over 48% of airport passenger traffic occurs in the Tampa Bay area, compared to less than 35% in Orlando and less than 40% in Miami. The more local outbound passengers there are, the less likely the airport is to be affected by industry-wide dips of passengers from other countries.

“The resilience of the Tampa Bay population can help airlines thrive,” he said. “For many years, airlines have been recognizing trends in Tampa Bay based on our strong business market and the demographics of our region.”

What will the future look like?

Where is this?

Before the drama, Canadians visited the United States most internationally. The American Travel Association estimates that a 10% cut in Canada travel will result in 2 million visits, $2.1 billion in spending losses and 14,000 job losses. Florida was the most impact given that more Canadians visit our province than any other Canadian.

According to a recent analysis of the state, the average international visitors spent $1,295 compared to the $799 for domestic tourists. Some studies show that Canadians stay longer and spend more than domestic tourists, but not as long as other international visitors. In any case, a major recession for Canadian visitors will hurt Florida’s international tourism.

However, people from other states, not other countries, earn more than 90% of their visits to Florida. With Canadians accounting for less than 2.5%, Florida’s massive tourism economy should be able to survive the boycott. Does the size of the hit depend on whether Canadians stay in large quantities and how long?

stay tuned. You’ll know the answer in just a few months.