A very early look at which of Florida’s US House races may be competitive in 2026

Florida hasn’t been much of a House battleground since state Republicans redrew the district map ahead of the 2022 election.

But the state’s Democratic Party hopes that could change in 2026. For one, the party locked out of the White House has historically gotten a boost in midterm elections. For another, the party saw stronger-than-expected results in special elections in two deep-red Florida districts earlier this year.

During this April’s special elections for the vacant 1st and 6th District seats, the Republican candidates won, but their margins of victory didn’t match Donald Trump’s dominance in those areas in November 2024. In the 6th District in northeastern Florida, the GOP nominee ran 16 points behind Trump’s 2024 performance, and in the Panhandle-based 1st District, the nominee ran 22 points behind Trump.

It’s too soon to know whether a blue wave develops in November 2026, of course. But if Democrats can improve their performance by even a fraction of that amount — far from a guarantee given Florida’s sharp turn to the right in recent elections — then other, more closely divided districts could be in play in 2026.

This is the ninth election cycle in which we’ve ranked Florida congressional races based on their vulnerability to a party flip. Six of the 11 seats on our current list are held by Republicans, while five are held by Democrats; the partisan breakdown in the congressional delegation is 20 Republicans and eight Democrats.

Our vulnerability rankings include four categories. For now, no race resides in our highest category, “Highly Vulnerable.” Three races sit in the next-highest category, “Vulnerable.” Another four are in the “Potentially Vulnerable” category. Four districts are in the “Minimally Vulnerable” category.

Any seats in the delegation not included on our list are not considered vulnerable at this point, although that could change as the cycle develops.

The Democrats’ biggest challenge in making gains in 2026 may be finding credible candidates to run. The expanding GOP dominance in the state at all levels has robbed Democrats of potential candidates with lower-office experience.

Republicans’ biggest worry may be that Trump’s hard-line immigration policies could soften GOP support among immigrant-heavy groups that had been a key factor in Florida Republican gains in recent election cycles.

As of now, few credible challengers have announced candidacies, so the analysis is based mainly on electoral and demographic fundamentals in each district. If a strong challenger emerges in these or other Florida districts later in the cycle, we expect to adjust our ratings accordingly.

Finally, one other district bears watching: The Fort Myers- and Naples-based 19th District, which is being vacated by Byron Donalds, who is running in 2026 for Florida’s open gubernatorial seat. This district is significantly more Republican than any others on our vulnerability list, so it’s highly unlikely to switch parties in 2026. But Donalds’ departure has created a high-stakes contest for the Republican nomination.

Here’s a rundown of races worth watching at this early point in the election cycle. Statistics below are drawn from Census data, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, the Federal Election Commission and the forthcoming 2026 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.

Highly vulnerable

No races

Vulnerable

1. 23rd District: Jared Moskowitz (D)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties

2024 House result: Moskowitz won by 5 points

2024 presidential result: Harris won by 1.9 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+2

Cash on hand through March 31: $392,474

Black: 12.2%

Latino: 23.9%

Asian: 4.2%

Median income: $83,420

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 44.2%

Median housing value: $550,200

Poverty rate: 9.8%

Moskowitz is No. 1 on our list due to the narrow partisan margins in his district.

For the second straight election, Moskowitz won by 5 points; in 2024, his margin was about 3 points wider than Democrat Kamala Harris’ in the district. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the GOP’s congressional campaign arm, has put him on its target list for the first time in 2026.

Moskowitz is considered a skilled politician, and he’s taken some maverick stances; he was the first Democratic member to join the House’s Department of Government Efficiency (or DOGE) task force, although he has since said that the effort has been a disappointment. Trump reportedly considered naming him to head the Federal Emergency Management Agency, similar to the role he held under Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Republicans, meanwhile, point to the finding from the nonpartisan Center for Effective Lawmaking that Moskowitz is the least effective Democratic House member from Florida, based on a variety of legislating metrics.

Former state Rep. George Moraitis is one of several Republicans who have announced a candidacy.

2. 13th District: Anna Paulina Luna (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Parts of Pinellas County

2024 House result: Luna won by 10 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 11.8 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5

Cash on hand through March 31: $375,872

Black: 6.8%

Latino: 11.4%

Asian: 3.8%

Median income: $71,166

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 35.3%

Median housing value: $377,700

Poverty rate: 10.9%

Luna supported Trump in person at his 2024 Manhattan trial for covering up his relationship with an adult film star, and she joined him in his box at the Republican National Convention. But she’s also the only candidate on our list from either party who underperformed the presidential candidate in their district; Trump won her district by about 12 points, but Luna won it by about 10 points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Democrats’ campaign arm, is targeting the seat.

Luna has taken on House Speaker Mike Johnson, a fellow Republican, in a bipartisan effort to enact proxy voting rules that would benefit new mothers. Citing a backlash by the staunchly conservative House Freedom Caucus to her position on proxy voting, Luna quit the group.

3. 7th District: Cory Mills (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: All of Seminole County; part of Volusia County

2024 House result: Mills won by 13 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 12.4 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5

Cash on hand through March 31: $91,571

Black: 9.8%

Latino: 22.5%

Asian: 3.7%

Median income: $76,668

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 37.2%

Median housing value: $375,300

Poverty rate: 8.8%

Mills’ district has a cushion in a district Trump won by more than 12 points. But he faces a range of personal issues.

In February, Mills was investigated by Washington, D.C., police for allegedly assaulting a 27-year-old woman. The congressman “vehemently” denied it in a statement from his office, and the woman later denied any physical altercation; no charges were filed.

In March, the House Ethics Committee opened a formal investigation into Mills over alleged omissions and misrepresentations in financial disclosure reports and for allegedly improperly maintaining contracts for his business with the federal government.

A combat Army veteran, Mills has also grappled with questions about the events that led to the awarding of a Bronze Star. In May, the news outlet NOTUS reported that “five people who served with him — including two of the men the (award) document says Mills saved in different incidents — say they have no recollection of Mills being at the incidents listed on the form.” Mills told NOTUS, “It was a chaotic day and understandable that others may have different recollections of events.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has added Mills to its target list.

Noah Widmann, a lawyer, is one of several Democratic candidates to launch a campaign so far.

Potentially vulnerable

4. 9th District: Darren Soto (D)

Elected: 2016

Geography: Southern suburbs of Orlando in Orange County, plus Osceola County

2024 House result: Soto won by 13 points

2024 presidential result: Harris won by 3.5 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+4

Cash on hand through March 31: $104,928

Black: 10.9%

Latino: 53.4%

Asian: 4.5%

Median income: $77,934

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 34.9%

Median housing value: $373,400

Poverty rate: 10.9%

Democrat Joe Biden won the district in 2020 by 17 points, but Harris won it by fewer than 4 points. Like many heavily Hispanic districts in the state and the country, the 9th — which has a Hispanic majority — has shifted to the right in recent election cycles. That led the National Republican Congressional Committee to target Soto’s seat.

Soto was more popular than Harris in 2024, outrunning her by more than 9 points — the largest overperformance of any member on our list. That said, Soto has a surprisingly small amount of money in the bank, and his voting record has been in line with Democrats in a district that has trended rightward. If Republicans can find a strong candidate, this race could become competitive.

Republican Stuart Farber, an Orlando physician, has announced a candidacy.

5. 15th District: Laurel Lee (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Parts of Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties

2024 House result: Lee won by 12 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 11.1 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5

Cash on hand through March 31: $647,093

Black: 16.5%

Latino: 27.1%

Asian: 5.6%

Median income: $71,865

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 34.3%

Median housing value: $362,000

Poverty rate: 15.0%

Lee, who served as Florida’s appointed secretary of state before winning her congressional seat, won a competitive GOP primary in 2022. She then won the 2022 general election by an 18-point margin. In 2024, she won by 12 points against term-limited Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp, despite the strong Republican environment that year. That was a slightly wider margin than Trump put together in the district.

6. 22nd District: Lois Frankel (D)

Elected: 2012

Geography: Most of Palm Beach County

2024 House result: Frankel won by 10 points

2024 presidential result: Harris won by 5.5 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+4

Cash on hand through March 31: $494,349

Black: 16.9%

Latino: 28.1%

Asian: 2.8%

Median income: $82,136

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 40.7%

Median housing value: $448,600

Poverty rate: 11.9%

Harris won Frankel’s district by a wider margin than she won Moskowitz’s or Soto’s, and Frankel outperformed Harris by about 4.5 points. That gives Frankel a cushion. But given the state’s reddening in recent election cycles, Frankel can’t afford to be asleep at the wheel this cycle.

7. 25th District: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

Elected: 2004

Geography: Southern Broward County

2024 House result: Wasserman Schultz won by 9 points

2024 presidential result: Harris won by 5.3 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+5

Cash on hand through March 31: $1,087,381

Black: 15.9%

Latino: 44.7%

Asian: 5.0%

Median income: $83,567

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42.3%

Median housing value: $498,500

Poverty rate: 12.3%

Harris’ performance in Wasserman Schultz’s district was similar to how she fared in Frankel’s district, and Wasserman Schultz outran Harris by a similar amount. But as a battle-tested candidate and a skilled fundraiser, Wasserman Schultz is relatively well insulated; she has more money in the bank than any Democrat on this list.

Minimally vulnerable

8. 14th District: Kathy Castor (D)

Elected: 2006

Geography: Parts of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties

2024 House result: Castor won by 15 points

2024 presidential result: Harris won by 7.6 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+5

Cash on hand through March 31: $282,636

Black: 15.7%

Latino: 27.5%

Asian: 3.8%

Median income: $72,238

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 41.7%

Median housing value: $417,000

Poverty rate: 13.1%

Castor has not had any previous reelection worries, and she probably won’t this year, given her 15-point victory in 2024. But Harris’ margin was half that, and in Florida today, Democrats in districts like this can’t be 100% certain of reelection.

9. 4th District: Aaron Bean (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Portions of Duval County, plus Nassau and Clay counties

2024 House result: Bean won by 15 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 11.8 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5

Cash on hand through March 31: $679,872

Black: 30.2%

Latino: 10.5%

Asian: 2.8%

Median income: $69,863

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 29.1%

Median housing value: $310,300

Poverty rate: 13.6%

Bean outperformed Trump by about 3 points in 2024, winning by 15. If a big Democratic wave emerges, it could make this district competitive.

10. 27th District: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

Elected: 2020

Geography: Parts of Miami-Dade County

2024 House result: Salazar won by 21 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 14.9 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+6

Cash on hand through March 31: $1,418,369

Black: 6.1%

Latino: 71.6%

Asian: 2.2%

Median income: $77,440

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 45.2%

Median housing value: $611,900

Poverty rate: 13.5%

In our final rankings of the 2024 campaign, Salazar was tied for our 2nd most vulnerable House member. But while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has placed Salazar on its target list, the continuing red shift in this nearly 72% Hispanic district has sent the 27th far down our vulnerability list. Salazar won by 21 points, outpacing Trump by about 6 points.

Salazar, a former Spanish-language TV journalist, won her seat in 2020 by ousting Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala. She defended it two years later, defeating a strong Democratic challenger, state Sen. Annette Taddeo, by 14 points.

Salazar has pursued immigration legislation with Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar and other Democrats and Republicans, burnishing her bipartisan reputation. She also urged Trump not to end the humanitarian parole program that benefits Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans and Haitians.

The wild card for Salazar is whether Trump’s crackdown on immigration prompts a backlash among Venezuelans and others in her district who had moved rightward during the Trump era.

11. 16th District: Vern Buchanan (R)

Elected: 2006

Geography: Manatee County and eastern Hillsborough County

2024 House result: Buchanan won by 19 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 15.4 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+7

Cash on hand through March 31: $1,189,833

Black: 10.9%

Latino: 23.2%

Asian: 3.4%

Median income: $83,386

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 37.5%

Median housing value: $402,200

Poverty rate: 9.8%

Buchanan has periodically appeared on our vulnerable list, but less so in recent election cycles. In 2024, he outran Trump by about 3.5 points, winning by 19. Buchanan chairs the Ways and Means Health Subcommittee. He has questioned the scope of Medicaid cuts, but cuts that do result from legislation passed by his committee could become a campaign issue for Democrats in 2026 — if they can recruit a credible challenger.

Open seat to watch for the Republican primary

19th District

Outgoing member: Byron Donalds (R)

Geography: Lee and Collier counties

2024 House result: Donalds won by 32 points

2024 presidential result: Trump won by 29.1 points

Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+14

Black: 7.4%

Latino: 20.5%

Asian: 1.8%

Median income: $76,248

Bachelor’s degree or higher: 37.8%

Median housing value: $454,800

Poverty rate: 11.9%

This Fort Myers-Naples district is far more Republican than any of the others on this list — Donalds won it by 32 points, about 3 points better than Trump did — which means it won’t be on the board for a partisan flip in November 2026. But with the Republican primary expected to anoint the seat’s next holder, the jockeying should be fierce. Trump may bless one candidate; if not, the primary contest could be wide open.