A new report released by Florida Tax Watch continues to look into whether Florida’s impressive economic growth will be sustainable over the next few years.
TaxWatch predicted Florida’s economy through 2030 using several contributing factors, including population and net immigration, employment, GDP and income growth, and tourism, in its forecast.
Key points from the report include the following outliers:
Population and Net Immigration: Florida’s population is projected to increase approximately 1.45 million (to 24.8 million) from 2025 to 2030. The statewide population is projected to continue to grow, but the number of people moving to Florida every day is projected to decrease. This reflects a change in the balance of people moving to Florida, lacking low cost of living, or personal income taxes, and moving from Florida to states such as Georgia, Texas and North Carolina.
Employment: No Florida is unemployed enough to fill all current job openings. The number of Floridians employed is projected to increase from 9.9 million in 2024 to 10.6 million in 2030. During this same period, Florida’s unemployment rate rose from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.9%, and fell to 3.6% in 2030.
GDP and revenue growth: Florida’s real GDP growth rate was 3.5% in 2024. However, it is expected to decrease to 3.0% by 2030. The difference between Florida’s GDP growth and actual GDP is small. This suggests that inflation is expected to decline in the coming years. Unlike the first and second quarter 2024 forecasts, 3rd 2024 studies show that Floridians’ spending capacity will gradually decline or stagnate over the next few years.
Tourism: Florida tourism is projected to increase steadily until 2028, and Florida’s tourism industry is projected to continue strong growth until 2030, with more visitors expected each year. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for employee wages of $76.4 billion. With revenue tourism generated, all Florida households save $1,910 a year on state and local taxes.
