Florida relies on Canadian visitors. Will Trump’s trade war keep them apart?

The US and Canada sparr in trade policies. The fact that the two countries are close allies makes Fracus seem even more troublesome.

Thankfully, the enemies agreed to retreat to their respective horns for 30 days, but they have not left the ring. The trade battle is at least not over yet. The rhetorical conflict could soon begin again.

When our friends fight, one common response is, “What the heck did happen?” The second is, “How will this affect us?” In this case, “we” is Florida.

Florida is dependent on Canada and vice versa. One important way is that Canadians visit Florida – a lot. They are on vacation here with a large crowd, hundreds of thousands of people in the season, our Canadian snowbirds. The long-term dispute with The-for-Tat tariffs is not good for Florida tourism. But how bad will that be?

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Canadians describe the most international visits to the United States. According to the American Travel Association, a 10% reduction in Canada’s travel could mean 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in spending and 14,000 job losses. Florida could be the hardest hit given that more Canadians are visiting our province than any other Canadian. In fact, more than a quarter of Florida’s international visitors come from Canada, according to Visitflorida, the state’s tourism marketing arm.

Locally, Tampa International Airport flaunts 70 weekly non-stop flights to Canadian cities during peak tourist season. Around 350,000 people flew on these flights last year, and the airport plans to add a non-stop flight to Vancouver in June.

About 450,000 Canadians visit Pinellas County each year, according to our visit to St. Pete-Clearwater. It’s only 3% of all visitors to the county, but the market is important enough that the county’s tourist boosters target seasonal advertising campaigns in Canada, not in the US in the Midwest and Northeast. Masu.

International tourists tend to stay longer and spend more than Americans traveling around the state. So, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau played the patriot card earlier this week, urging Canadians to “choose Canada” for their vacation instead of traveling to the US, the province and local officials were crying It may be permissible.

Trudeau’s message and fiery tenors of conflict can have an impact on tourism, economist Amanda Farin told me. She said one of Canada’s biggest travel agents has already reported an increase in clients canceling US trips and rebooking them to other destinations.

Farin, an associate professor at the University of Florida, said:

Tourism outlook worsens when the lecture turns into action and both countries slap each other at heavy tariffs. One estimate shows President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and expected Canadian retaliation would shrink Canada’s economy by more than 2%. That may not sound much, but it is enough to cast financial darkness on the country. Pessimistic residents don’t take much vacation.

Historically, tariffs can also lower the currency of a country. Even today, Canadians only get around 70 cents per dollar. Even lower Canadian dollars would force more Canadians to stay home or visit more affordable countries.

The uncertainty about whether both parties will impose tariffs is useless. It breeds a kind of financial paralysis. People are not keen to book flashy holidays if they feel uncertain about the future.

“One thing that markets and businesses hate is uncertainty,” Farin said. “The same can be said for consumers.”

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Ron Barbrahatt believes the conflict is primarily said to be tough by Trump, and he feels that Canadian leaders have an obligation to respond. Longtime Snowbirds in Ontario, Canada, have spent part of the year in Dunedin, so they both believe they will resolve it without imposing harsh tariffs.

“There are plenty of problems in our world without causing trouble between our two great friends,” said Valbracht, 76, who has been in the winter in Florida for 28 years. “I think it all will go back to normal soon.”

Stephen Fein wasn’t that sure. He is the president and managing editor of Snowbird Advisor, a Toronto-based organization that provides tools and services to Canadians looking to spend the winter abroad. Many of his members are not satisfied with the fierce language and talk of “war” and retaliation, he said.

When dealing with the US, Canadians can feel like the underdogs chosen in a very large superpower. The US economy is more than 12 times larger than Canada’s size. No one likes to feel bullied or neglected.

“There’s no doubt that there are a lot of snowbirds who have negative feelings at this point,” he said. “We won’t know for a while how it will translate.”

Estimates vary based on the number of Canadians who are part-time Florida residents. Fine said that around 1 million Canadians meet the definition of snowbird – over 55 years old, retired or semi-retired, living in other countries for 1-6 months a year. Most ends in the US, and Florida is a much more top destination, he said.

Unlike regular tourists, most of the seasonal snowbirds are already here. They usually come in November and December and stay until April. Many of them drive to Florida. They come every year and sign property they own in Florida, or rental leases. They have their roots here. They may not like Trump’s latest salvo, but they probably won’t pack their cars home now.

Fine will have his eyes next season. He wonders if the political environment, the weaker Canadian dollars and the rising costs in Florida are deducing numbers. He has seen the rise in members choosing Portugal, Spain, Costa Rica, Panama, Belize and the Caribbean islands. However, Florida remains No. 1.

“People only have that much money,” he said. “But Snowbirds are not casual tourists. They are traditionally a very resilient market.”

Remember, they are here for a reason. Winters in Canada are long, dark and cold. It was eight times last week in Montreal and twice in Winnipeg. Valbracht had to return to Ennismore, Ontario for the last few days. He spotted two feet of snow on the ground. Temperatures plummeted to 13 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday.

“I don’t want to feel so cold again,” he said. “That’s too much.”

Florida’s almost endless sunlight, a 75-degree winter day, it’s difficult to pass the gorgeous beach. Kids are also more interested in meeting Disney’s Mickey Mouse and exploring Harry Potter’s universal magical world rather than international trade in soybeans and car parts. These benefits will not go away. How will they withstand fallout from a potentially intense trade war? You’ll understand immediately.