Josh board, AP communication
Washington (AP Communication) – Most President Donald Trump also faces an economy that is rarely succumbed to political ambitions.
The Republican Party promises powerful growth, high tariffs, income tax reduction, and lively oil fields. However, despite the low unemployment rate of 4.1 % of the company, he must fight headwinds such as inflation, fiscal deficit, increased tensions over trade, the impact of immigration reduction plan, and the gap between strong and poor wealth. 。
These problems can help the voters who have returned to the White House with a specific goal of rebuilding the economy to form how they feel about the president.
Mr. Trump wants to blame his predecessor Joe Biden for all the issues in front of him, and Mr. Biden has to work on his own administration in 2021. Is blamed.
“This begins to confront the economic confusion caused by the failed policy of the former administration’s failed policy,” said Trump on Thursday.
The five economic factors that could form the first year of President Trump are as follows:
The price is not yet appropriate for voters
Whiplash inflation is easy to say and difficult.
AP Votecast, a widespread survey for voters last year, said that the only most important element when four out of ten voters choose the president is inflation. About two -thirds of this group voted to Trump. This indicates that Mr. Trump’s victory is due to soaring food, gasoline, housing, cars, and other products.
In the future, the monthly report on the Consumer Price Index will be a clear measure of whether President Trump can implement policies. However, inflation has actually risen in recent months. Consumer prices were rising steadily in September, compared to 2.9 % in December. Economists and colleagues pointed out that if President Trump imposes tariffs and conducts an income tax reduction with financial deficit as a source, inflation may worsen.
Republicans often criticize Biden about the price of eggs. However, the Democratic Party may make a similar attack to President Trump. Coffee prices have risen only 1 % to US consumers in the past year, but the price of the international currency fund has increased by 55 %, and the price of latte, espresso, and old -fashioned Joe will soon higher. It is possible that there is a possibility.
Then it’s a house. Voters are still dissatisfied with the high mortgage interest rates and the high price due to lack of real estate. Evacuation shelters account for 37% of the consumer price index. The rise in housing prices has slowed, but the annual average annual increase before pandemic was 3.3 %, while shelters were still rising 4.6 % a year.
President Trump is betting on the increase in energy production, but the government says that domestic production is already approaching a record level.
Which of the customs duties that really come?
President Trump said that it would impose 25 % tariffs on February 1st in Mexico and Canada, and also mentioned additional tariffs on Chinese products. The goal he states is to prevent the flow of chemicals used to manufacture illegal borders and fentanyl.
For Trump, tariffs are diplomatic measures to achieve policy goals. However, they are also threats that may have aimed to revitalize trade negotiations. He argues that they are also revenue sources and may bring the Ministry of Finance to a $ trillion.
President Trump raised tariffs in the first term, and tax revenue was more than doubled to $ 85.4 billion annually. This may sound too much, but it is equivalent to only 0.4 % of the gross domestic product. A plurality of analysis by the Yale University Budget Research Institute and the Peterson International Economic Research Institute, threatening tariffs will increase the cost of ordinary households, and that it will be a de facto increase.
What is really important is whether President Trump will perform threats. This is why Ben Harris, a former advisor to Biden and currently the Director of Economic Research in the Brookings Institute, argues that voters should pay attention to the average tariff.
“Trade is really difficult,” Harris said. “But to put it on, please pay attention to his actions, not his remarks.”
What will happen to national debt?
Mr. Trump likes to blame government bonds for the cause of inflation, and claims that the funds that can be absorbed by Biden’s policy have flowed into the US economy. However, according to the Federal Budget Committee, a responsible fiscal monitoring agency, about 22 % of the $ 36 trillion debt balance is due to the first term of President Trump.
Former Trump’s staff, who is currently the president and CEO (CEO) of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, warns that in a recent analysis, the United States is too close to the fiscal limit. did. According to his analysis, if President Trump can maintain 3 %, it may be possible to extend the tax reduction in 2017, which is expensive, while stabilizing debts by 100 to $ 140 billion per year. Suggests.
The risk is that while consumer borrowing costs are high, borrowing costs and increase in debt can limit President Trump’s actions. Congressmen who once thought debt were a problem for years, have also strengthened the problem that they should be dealt with.
“One of the biggest changes I feel among the policy creators now is that they are starting to recognize that the long -term ones are today,” said Winfrey. 。
Winfrey said that an important important number was the interest rates imposed on US government bonds, and would inform the people that they would have a problem with borrowing. The interest rate of US government bonds has been about 4.6 %, up 1 % since September.
Immigration is still necessary to fill the job
President Trump’s presidential decree is clearly suppression of immigration, which can cause economic growth, which may slow down monthly employment growth. President Trump often focuses illegally to people across national borders, and often makes immigration issues into crime and national security issues.
However, the economy that cannot add enough workers is exposed to stagnation, and the current US labor market requires immigration as part of the employment structure. According to the Census Bureau, about 84 % of the pure population in the United States last year was due to immigrants. There are 2.8 million immigrants.
“They are not only working in the economy, but also in the economy,” said Satyam Panday, the United States of S & P Global Rating. “Their expenditure is someone’s income in the economy.”
According to Panday analysis, if President Trump simply returns immigrants to an average of 750,000 per year in 2017 and 2019, the growth rate may slow down from 2.7 % last year to 2 % in the future. Construction, agriculture, and leisure services will probably have a hard time securing employees.
In other words, it is worth monitoring monthly employment statistics and immigration flow.
Let’s be careful about the gap between rich and poor
President Trump will need to find a way to balance the benefits of billionaire and the Blue Color voters. His inauguration events include Tesla’s Elon Mask, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg in Meta, and Bernard Arnault in LVMH. According to the Bloomberg billion, their assets are more than $ 200 billion.
Scott Ellis, a member of the group Patriotic Millionaire, said it was worth monitoring how their assets would increase under the Trump administration. As of Friday this year, Arno’s net assets increased $ 23 billion, Besos has increased $ 15 billion, Zuckerberg has increased $ 18 billion, and Musk’s assets have increased $ 6 billion. These are all monthly.
In contrast, according to the latest data available by the Census Bureau, the median US household assets increased $ 9,600 from 2021 to 2022 to $ 176,500.
First edition release date: January 24, 2025 1:36 pm (EST)
