It’s definitely winter, but will it be even colder in the forecast?
In Tampa?
Florida?
That’s correct. It’s not yet time to take your single wool coat to the dry cleaners. Another cold front is approaching, and next week will bring severe cold.
Last year was the hottest year on record on Earth, breaking the previous year’s record. In Tampa Bay, St. Petersburg just recorded its hottest year on record in 2024, and Tampa did the same the year before.
Record-breaking heat has led to unusually long stretches of cool weather.
But temperatures in Tampa have been about 5 degrees below average so far this month. 13 of the past 16 days have been below average. Forecasters are predicting a return of cold weather next week, with some of the coldest temperatures of the season.
Temperatures in Tampa Bay are expected to reach the 30s to 40s after temperatures begin to drop Sunday night.
The northern Panhandle might see some real snow instead of the soapy snow that local Floridians are used to.
A cold front is expected to arrive next week, resulting in mild and humid weather over the weekend.
The National Weather Service expects temperatures to be in the mid-70s Saturday, when the Children’s Gasparilla Parade is held in Tampa. As of Friday morning, the forecast called for clear skies during the day, with up to a 60% chance of rain overnight.
The mercury will start to fall on Sunday, with a chance of more rain.
By Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, high temperatures will drop dramatically into the low 50s around Tampa Bay.
The weather is expected to remain cold for much of this week, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s seven-day forecast. Low temperatures could drop into the low 30s in some areas of Tampa Bay by Tuesday night, the National Weather Service said.
In northern Florida, “showers and snow are possible” that day, the weather service said.
Paul Close, a meteorologist with the Tampa Bay Weather Bureau, said Thursday that he doesn’t expect subzero temperatures or snow in Tampa Bay.
“We expect it to continue moving north,” Close said.
The cold weather is due to the weather patterns that occur around the North Pole. Close said this pattern has helped determine some of the region’s coolest winter weather, including the last time it snowed in the Tampa Bay area in 1977.
The short-term pattern is called the Arctic Oscillation and is measured on a positive or negative scale. If it is negative, the winter climate will be colder. If positive, the weather will be warmer.
“There’s definitely a correlation, especially on the Florida peninsula,” Close said of the pattern.
The National Weather Service said records show the entire Tampa Bay area could freeze if the Arctic Oscillation drops to -4 degrees.
The lowest observed drop was around -3.5 in January, when the Bureau of Meteorology was forecasting a freeze on the Nature Coast.
The daily low was -7.4 on January 15, 1977. Four days later, it snowed in Tampa Bay.
There is a lag of about a week between a positive or negative vibrational change and its effect on the weather.
Temperatures are now rising, meaning Tampa Bay’s weather will likely start getting warmer again.
Close said he expects temperatures to be milder by the end of the month heading into February.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its October forecast that a surge in La Niña conditions will make this winter warm and dry.
In early January, the agency announced that the Earth was in La Niña, a condition likely to remain until April.
Close said that although temperatures in Tampa Bay have been below average this month, a warmer February could still lead to a warmer-than-average winter for the region.
“In a month, we might flip out and complain about the warm, muggy weather,” he says.
