Jeff Berardelli is WFLA’s chief meteorologist and climate expert
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Up to a foot of snow was recorded in parts of the Gulf Coast region Tuesday. In many cities, this snow total erased years of snow records. Milton, Florida, recorded 9 inches of snow, more than double the state’s all-time record of 4 inches.
The heaviest snowfall was in Louisiana, where the city of New Orleans received 10 inches of snow, with isolated reports of more than a foot. And Mobile, Alabama, also broke a record, gaining about 8 inches.
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Heavy snow was still falling in northern Florida Tuesday night, with Tallahassee having a chance to set a record snowfall of 2.8 inches. Snow and ice will fall along Interstate 10 into Lake City and Jacksonville, with perhaps a few ice pellets as far south as Ocala. All rain will stop by dawn.
Temperatures will be below freezing from northern Citrus County. The further north you go from there, the more icy spots there will be on the roads.
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So what’s causing this strange weather system? It’s very cold air moving south into the Gulf, while a stationary front and weak low pressure over the Gulf push warm, moist air over it. This is due to very specific circumstances of being swept away.
This is all happening because the polar jet stream is stuck over the Gulf Coast, being pushed thousands of miles south of its normal position by the shifting polar vortex. The polar vortex, normally located far north of Canada, is located in the northern United States, pushed south by very warm air over the Arctic Ocean. Everything is connected.
The position of the jet stream over the Gulf Coast has activated the stalled front and started developing low pressure (and moisture), pushing all the cold air south.
The result is what we call an “overrun.” The warm air is pushed north by the low pressure system, and because the warm air is lighter (and the cold air is heavier/dense), it “overruns” the cold air at the surface. As warm, moist air rises, clouds form and precipitation occurs. It’s cold enough to snow, so it’s falling.
The snow will be heavy due to the very warm waters of the Midwest Gulf. In some cases, the temperature may be about 5 degrees higher than normal.
Some may mention climate change. This event either proves that climate change exists or it doesn’t. I’m here because this event proves neither of those things are true. There is no way to know whether this event would have happened without climate change.
What we can say is that the warm air in the Arctic is influencing the movement of the polar vortex further south. It could also be said that the warmer Gulf Coast caused more snowfall than it would have otherwise.
We don’t get any snow here in Tampa Bay, but Wednesday morning will be in the 20s for many people, with gusty winds of 25 mph or more making it feel like snow. That would be cruel to Tampa Bay!
There will be many cold mornings and chilly days this week and into the weekend. Low temperatures in Tampa will bottom out in the mid-30s Friday and Saturday morning, with temperatures in the low 20s along the Nature Coast.
Daytime temperatures will be in the 50s through Saturday, eventually climbing into the 70s on Sunday, with sunny skies continuing into the weekend.
