Many Florida Republicans believe the 2026 gubernatorial race is a foregone conclusion after nearly three decades of Florida government dominance. Here are 10 reasons why the race may not be as easy as many Republicans think. If Republicans aren’t careful, they could find themselves in hotly contested states that they currently consider safely red.
1. Republicans lead Democrats in voter registration in Florida, but that could easily be overturned by independents.
Republicans like to point to Florida’s roughly 1.5 million registered voter advantage over Democrats as evidence that the state is deep red and a safe bet. it’s not. On the surface, the Republican lead looks impressive, but it’s a papier-mâché tiger.
The fastest growing group of voters in Florida are neither Republicans nor Democrats, but independents. Currently, non-partisan (NPA) voters make up the majority of the electorate, but they are not reflected in these headline registration benefits. These voters are emotionally volatile and are influenced more by economic factors and current events than by party labels. Florida has 3.8 million voters who are registered with a minor political party or are completely independent and not registered with any political party. The GOP’s registration advantage (about 3 million to 1.5 million).
So if Republicans rely on those numbers as a safety net, they may not realize how vulnerable their position really is until after the votes are counted. Much of the surge in Republican registration occurred during the DeSantis administration, when the Republican Party was strong and the Democratic brand was weak nationally. Those conditions no longer exist.
2. The economy is now working against Republicans instead of for them.
In 2024, Republican candidates were given gifts. Voters thought Republicans had the economic advantage, but in 2026 those days are a distant memory. If economic dissatisfaction persists, or if voters begin to question whether Republican leadership actually works, the Republican Party will lose its most reliable base.
3. The cost of living in Florida remains high, especially for seniors.
Republicans have long relied on older voters, one of the most reliable voting blocs in Florida politics.
It’s not difficult to understand why. Florida’s large retiree population has consistently skewed Republican, and voters 65 and older were a key part of Ron DeSantis’ powerful 2022 coalition.
But there are growing problems that Republicans cannot ignore. That’s because Florida’s cost of living hits seniors harder than anyone else.
Housing costs have soared. Property and casualty insurance premiums are soaring, and in some cases have doubled or tripled in recent years. The prices of daily necessities such as food, utilities, and health care continue to rise. For seniors receiving bonds, this is not an abstract policy debate. It’s personal.
And when it becomes personal, voting behavior can change quickly. We’re already seeing these changes in two different districts that flipped Democratic in special elections earlier this year. That won’t automatically lead to a Democratic wave this November, but it doesn’t have to. Whether a small number of older voters shift their votes to Democratic candidates, or a similar proportion of ordinary voters don’t bring their friends to the polls, the net negative impact on Republicans will be significant.
And the party’s most reliable advantage could quietly become its greatest vulnerability, as voters who once formed the bedrock of Republican victories begin to grow disillusioned, especially about short-term issues such as affordability.
4. Republican infighting is definitely higher than it was in 2022
The Republicans’ biggest problem may not be the Democrats. Mr. DeSantis’ approval ratings have cooled significantly from their peak in 2022, and his entry into the 2024 presidential race has infuriated Mr. Trump’s most loyal supporters.
Byron Donald may have some early momentum, but the reality is simple. He has yet to receive unified support from the DeSantis wing of the party. And if that support is delayed or not supported at all, the damage may already be in place.
We’re heading into a couple of months like this.
The conflict between Trump and DeSantis has not been fully resolved since 2024. Competing power centers and deep-seated resentments
Don’t be surprised if this turns out to be a long game.
Some voters stay home, others “undervote” and skip the gubernatorial race altogether, and the drop in interest is enough to matter.
In a race that could be decided by two to four points, these three factors could easily tip the scales for the Democratic candidate.
5. Republicans’ newfound improvements for young men in 2024 have collapsed.
Republicans celebrated gaining young voters in 2024, but that celebration may have been premature.
Recent polls show that 72% of voters in their mid-20s to mid-30s disapprove of Donald Trump, flashing red flags for Republican candidates looking to maintain a coalition.
Young voters are not fixed, they are mobile. And when it shifts, it shifts quickly. If Republicans lose even some of these gains, their suburban margins could shrink and their turnout advantage could shrink.
6. Democrats don’t need to improve, Republicans just need to slide.
This is where Republican strategists should be losing sleep: Democrats don’t need a breakthrough. They just need Republican erosion.
A small drop in voter support among independent male voters, suburban women, Hispanics, and middle-aged voters could be enough for any of these groups, or a combination of them, to flip the result. In other words, a surprise Democratic victory does not require a traditional “blue wave”; a small decline in Republican vote share among a small population group is sufficient.
7. There is no “Sleepy Joe” Biden associated with Democratic candidates.
For years, Republicans have benefited from the inherent advantage of facing Joe Biden.
That crutch is no longer there. If enthusiasm doesn’t wane with Biden in the lead, Democrats could run a cleaner, more localized campaign that could re-engage voters who have stayed home.
Republicans have power at both the federal and state levels, so they won’t be able to nationalize this race as a vote against the status quo.
8. With Crist removed from the ballot, Democrats no longer face an enthusiasm problem.
It’s easy to forget how close the race was between Andrew Gillum and DeSantis in the 2018 gubernatorial race, given DeSantis’ landslide victory over Charlie Crist and Gillum’s embarrassing exit from politics. Mr. Crist was a uniquely weak candidate who never excited Democratic or independent voters in 2022. He had a high profile, but that profile included changing stances and multiple defeats in state-wide races.
That strawman enemy is gone. Consider the difference between John Kerry and Barack Obama. When a new Democratic candidate emerges, the swing in turnout is immediately reset. And with neither Trump nor DeSantis running, Republicans will lose the biggest turnout incentive they had in the past two elections.
9. MAGA voters’ loyalty has waned since Trump started the war with Iran.
The wild card Republicans are not prepared for is foreign policy dissatisfaction creeping into their own base. Some MAGA voters are starting to ask questions like:
Endless overseas engagement Strategic priorities including Iran and Israel Broader direction of U.S. overseas engagement
That doesn’t automatically translate into Democratic votes, but it absolutely could lead to lower Republican turnout.
10. Polls are already flashing warning signs.
According to the Emerson College poll, Republican Byron Donald leads Democrat David Jolly by a narrow margin of 44% to 39%, with a whopping 17% undecided. If Florida was truly “deep red,” the polls wouldn’t be like this. Let’s understand it better. Seventeen percent of voters in states considered red don’t even know who they support. In early averages tracked by RealClearPolitics, the Republican lead is consistently in the mid-single digits, not double digits. It’s not control. It’s vulnerability.
Bottom line: Republicans still have an advantage, but gubernatorial race is not safe
Republican gubernatorial candidates should be supported in Florida, but being supported is not the same as being 100% safe.
When undecided voters are near 20%, the Republican Party is internally divided, and seniors are dissatisfied, there is no key. If Republicans continue to treat Florida as if it’s a done deal, they may not realize how real the threat is until it’s too late.
*This opinion piece was originally published on NewSouthPolitics.com and republished with permission from the author.
