As of December, there are approximately 50 members not running for re-election in 2026.
The current number is 47. More Republicans (27) than Democrats (20) will not run next year. Some are retiring, and others, like Florida Congressman Byron Donald, have announced they are seeking higher office.
Both sides are expected to spend significant amounts of money to gain and maintain control.
The 2026 election is expected to be the most expensive midterm election in U.S. history, according to a new political forecast.
Travis Trawick, CEO of FullPAC, a leading provider of nonpartisan campaign technology, predicts that political ad spending in 2026 Congressional elections could reach $10.8 billion, a 21% increase compared to the last midterm cycle in 2022.
Although slightly less than the total spent during the 2024 election cycle, House political ad spending is projected to reach $2.2 billion, marking the first time the House has topped $2 billion. This is a 27% increase compared to the 2024 cycle and a 40% increase compared to the 2022 cycle.
The total value of U.S. Senate races is expected to reach $2.8 billion in 2026, slightly exceeding the record total for the 2024 election cycle and an increase of nearly 21% compared to the 2022 midterm elections.
Some states, such as California, are expected to spend $1.1 billion on advertising, making them the top spending states in the 2026 cycle. Other top states include states with multiple races across the state and states with very competitive House races. In Florida, Georgia, Michigan, New York, North Carolina and Texas, total ad spending is expected to be close to $500 million or more ahead of the midterm elections.
According to the report, advertisers are expected to spend $2.5 billion on CTV, the fastest growing media type. The House and Senate races for Congress are expected to total $5 billion, nearly half of all cycle spending.
Trawick said there has already been an initial spending surge, with $900 million already spent and on pace well into 2023 and 2021.
