Anne d’Hynenzio and Mae Anderson, Associated Press
NEW YORK (AP) – As summer is in full swing in the US, retail executives are sweating another season. It is within 22 weeks of Christmas, when companies that manufacture and sell consumer goods usually limit holiday orders and prices.
But President Donald Trump’s upsetting trade policy is part of his efforts to revive the decline in national manufacturing bases and reduce the US deficit in exports, complicating these year-end plans. Balsam Hill, which sells artificial wood and other decorations online, plans to publish a smaller thinner holiday catalogue as the featured products continue to change with tariffs and rates of presidential sets, postponements and amendments – import taxes continue to change with import taxes.
“Uncertainty led us to spend all our time, what we’re ordering, where we bring where we’re coming here. “I don’t know what items we have to catalogue.”
A few months of disruptions that could make foreign products more expensive have left question marks in the holiday shopping season. US retailers often start planning for the January winter break, typically completing most of their orders by the end of June. Seesourcing tariffs have already been factored into calculations.
Consumer outcome? Stores may not be able to bring certain gift items that customers want in November and December. Rather than risking large tax bills and expensive imports that don’t sell expensive imports, some retail suppliers and buyers have reduced their holiday lines. While businesses are still setting prices, shoppers say many can expect to cost more, by relying in part on whether Trump’s latest “mutual” tariffs kick next month.
The lack of clarity has been particularly disruptive for the US toy industry, procuring almost 80% of products from China. According to Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of the Toy Association, an industrial trade group, American toy makers typically increased production in April.
The US tariff rate may have dropped significantly from the spring highs. The US-China trade war ceases to expire on August 12th, but continue to form an upcoming holiday period. Ahearn said manufacturing activity has been declining much more for small and medium-sized US toy companies a year ago.
The delay in factory work in China means that holiday toys are currently arriving in our warehouse, industry experts said. The big unknown is whether tariffs will prevent the toy supply of breakout hits that emerged in September, said James Zahn, editor-in-chief of the Toy Book of Product Publications.
In the retail industry, plans for Christmas in July usually include mapping seasonal marketing and promotional strategies. Dean Smith, who co-owns Jazams, an independent toy store in Princeton, New Jersey and Lahaska, Pennsylvania, said he spent an hour and a half running a pricing scenario with Canadian distributors as the wholesale costs for some products increased by 20%.
Smith said he could raise his own prices and turn off customers, so he explored ways to “keep a reasonable margin without raising prices beyond what consumers accept.” He didn’t think he would pay what the customers had to charge, so he ordered a lower cost crazy fort building set, grabbed his toys and ruled out the kids’ version of the Anomia Card Game.
“In the end, I had to eliminate half of the products I normally buy,” Smith said.
Hillary Key, owner of Toy Chest in Nashville, Indiana, said he should be looking to get new games and toys most years and see if they have stock on the winter holidays. This year, she abandoned product testing for fear that delayed orders would incur high import taxes.
Meanwhile, vendors of toys made in China and toys made elsewhere have attacked the key with price increases notifications. For example, Schylling, which makes Medoh, Care Care Bear Collectibles and My Nostalgic Toys of Nostalgic Toys, has increased the price of orders by 20%, according to Key.
If the tariff situation changes again, all price increases may change. Her store takes pride in her carriage, so her store will not convince her to assortment of products.
“My concern is not that I don’t have anything because I can bring in more books. I can bring in more gifts, or I can only bring in something else that was produced,” she said. “But that doesn’t mean I’m going to have the best stock for every developmental age, every special need.”
The retail industry may need to continue to get a devourable approach to navigate the White House’s latest tariff ultimate and temporary compromise. Last week, the president again reset the fees for import charges from Brazil, the European Union, Mexico and other major trading partners, but said it would not take effect until August 1.
A short pause requires window importers to bring seasonal goods at the current 10% baseline tariff. Port of Los Angeles has reached the busiest June in its 117-year history, after businesses competed to secure holiday shipments, according to Port’s executive director Jean Celoka.
“In my view, we’ll see a peak season push right now to bring goods ahead of potentially high tariffs later this summer,” Celoka said Monday.
The pace of port activities so far this year so far reflects the “flagellate effect of tariffs.” He said imports will slow down when tariffs begin and will rebound when they pause. “For our consumers, higher prices are likely to occur as stock levels drop, selection decreases and price increases head towards vacation.”
Smith, who co-owns two Jazams stores with partner Joan Falgia, said he began placing holiday orders two months earlier than usual due to “specific items that we felt were essential to certain pricing.” They doubled the stockpile space and stored the stockpile. But some shoppers are just as ahead of higher prices as businesses, he said.
He has noticed customers snapping popular items during the holidays, like jelly cut gorgeous toys and big plush unicorns and dogs. Any sale is welcome, but Smith and Falluzia are wary of having to fill up at a higher cost.
“We try to be as friendly as possible to consumers, but we still have a product portfolio or profile that meets the needs of all different customers.
Harman of Balsam Brands said he must resign to not have robust ornaments or matte trees to sell like in the past. It’s too late to import meaningful additions to his various products right away.
“Our purpose as a company is to create joy together, and this year we will do our best to do that,” Herman said. “We don’t have a lot of items that consumers want this year, and that’s not where we want to be.”
Original issue: July 21, 2025, 12:08pm EDT
