By Josh Bork
WASHINGTON (AP) – Analysis shows a key group of US employers face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans.
An analysis by the JPMorganchase Institute is the first to measure the direct costs caused by import taxes on businesses with annual revenues of between $10 million and $1 billion. This is a category that includes about a third of private sector US workers. These companies rely more on imports from China, India and Thailand than others, and the retail and wholesale sectors are particularly vulnerable to import taxes imposed by the Republican president.
The findings show a clear trade-off from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claim that foreign manufacturers will absorb tariff costs on behalf of US companies that rely on imports. Tariffs launched under Trump have not yet driven overall inflation, but big companies like Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma have delayed potential calculations by building inventory before taxes are imposed.
The analysis is just ahead of the Trump deadline on July 9th and officially sets tariff rates for goods from dozens of countries. Trump has imposed a deadline after financial markets panic in response to the tariff announcement in April, urging them to schedule a 90-day negotiation period in which most imports face a baseline tariff of 10%. China, Mexico and Canada face higher rates, with separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
If the initial tariffs on April 2 were maintained, the JPMorganchase Institute analytics companies would face an additional $187.6 billion in expenses. At the current rate, $82.3 billion is on average $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual salary. These averages include companies that do not import goods and those that do so.
Asked on Tuesday how trade talks were being carried, Trump simply said, “Everything is going well.”
The president has indicated that he will set tariff rates considering the logistical challenges of negotiating with so many countries. Once the 90-day period ended, only the UK signed the Trump administration and the trade framework. India and Vietnam show that they are close to a trade framework.
There is growing evidence suggesting that more inflation could emerge. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that it expects businesses to take over 60% of their tariff costs to consumers. The Atlanta Federal Reserve uses a survey of corporate inflation expectations to say businesses can pass costs by about half on average from a 10% or 25% tariff without reducing consumer demand.
The findings of the JPMorganchase Institute suggest that tariffs could enhance the role of some domestic manufacturers as suppliers of products. However, it was noted that businesses had to plan a variety of outcomes, and that wholesalers and retailers were already operating at a lower profit margin needed to expand customs costs to their customers.
The tariff outlook remains extremely uncertain. Trump has stopped negotiations with Canada, but has only resumed them after the country removed plans to tax digital services. He similarly threatened more tariffs in Japan on Monday, unless he bought more rice from the US.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent said in an interview Tuesday that concessions from trade consultations impressed career staff at the offices of US trade representatives and other agencies.
“People at Commerce’s Treasury have said at USTR for 20 years these are the kind of transactions they’ve never seen before,” Bescent said in Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends.”
The Treasury Secretary said the Trump administration will discuss the outline of trade deals next week and plans to prioritize the tax cut package passed by the Republican majority in the Senate on Tuesday. Trump has set a deadline for Friday.
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Original issue: July 2, 2025, 6:26am EDT
