Josh Funk, Associated Press Business Writer
OMAHA, Nevada (AP) — Rancher Brett Kenzie hopes President Donald Trump’s tariffs make imported beef expensive enough.
It could raise prices enough to give Kenzie and others the incentives they need to expand their flock for the first time in decades. But it takes at least two years to do that. It is not clear whether Trump’s tariffs in most of the world outside of China are high enough to be invested.
“If we can fix some important things, we can reinvigorate rural America,” said the South Dakota rancher. “Let these imports be controlled, raised to a level where they can understand and plan, then let them fill in the blanks, and I think American ranchers can do that.”
Trump enjoys overwhelming support in the country’s rural areas in three campaigns for the President. Still, the uncertainty created by the trade war he incited had been suspended to ranchers after seeing the prices of cattle drop after tariffs were announced.
“I don’t like manipulated markets because someone wins artificially and someone loses artificially,” said Bryant Kagai, a farmer who not only raises crops but also cattle farms. “And how can I know that it won’t become me?”
Ranchers are cautiously optimistic
Ranchers hope that tariffs may create an incentive for them to raise more cows, and the National Cattle Trade Group spits at the idea of selling more meat overseas if tariffs lead to new trade deals with countries that don’t buy much beef in the US.
That’s a big thing. Trump says dozens of countries are reaching out to negotiate new trade deals, but no agreement has been reached.
What’s clear so far is that American ranchers are likely to lose one of their biggest markets as a result of the 125% tariffs imposed by China in response to Trump. They sold $1.6 billion worth of beef last year, and many ranchers are also growing crops, so they are shaking about the prospect of losing China as a market for people.
After it expired in March, the certificate that most beef plants in the US need to require meat plants, which already pending exports of most beef to China. Therefore, the American Meat Export Federation said there are currently few American beef plants eligible to ship to China.
Kenzie hopes Trump’s tariffs represent a lasting change in US trade policy. So far, tariffs have changed dramatically since the ranchers were announced they could not yet rely on them.
“If this is a short-term negotiation tactic, then you’ll say Tarzan will beat his chest – it’s going to be an epic failure,” Kenzie said.
The problem is that, like Kenzie and other members of the Rancher’s Action Fund United Stock Growers of America, more than £4 billion of beef imported each year, along with the cows brought in to be slaughtered here, keeping the prices of cattle low.
Imported is the trimming of lean beef, where meatpackers mix with the fatty beef produced here in the US to produce the kind of ground beef that domestic consumers want. Trump puts most of his proposed tariffs on hold, but consumers are likely to raise the price of burgers as the 10% tariff he imposed for 90 days makes imported beef more expensive.
Even if ranchers decide to raise more cattle to replace these imports, it will take at least two years to breed and raise them. This means that meat processors are more likely to pay a higher price for their imported beef at least. And the ongoing drought in most parts of the West will continue to make raising more cows difficult.
Furthermore, if American ranchers want to produce more of their lean beef, they may have to change the way they raise animals, as the entire country’s system is designed to produce tasty meat and get tender steaks that will help farmers make the most money. Glyn Tonsar, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, said most of the lean beef America purchases come from Australia and New Zealand. There, cows eat grass, not grain.
US ranchers hope that tariffs are on a level playing field, but uncertainty remains
The number of cattle grown nationwide has been shrinking for decades, reaching its current historic lows, but David Anderson, livestock economist at Texas A&M, said in 1975 the number of cattle was less than two-thirds of beef, which is actually 26.7 billion pounds. That’s because the American beef industry is so good at nourishing cattle and breeding large animals, and now all cattle produce more meat. Anderson said it means there is less incentive to expand the herd.
Casey Maher, owner of Maher Angus Ranch in Morristown, SD, said he hopes Trump’s tariffs level the arena for American beef producers.
“We are optimistic and we intend to keep the course,” says Maher, a third-generation rancher. “We’ve been through tough times and if that’s a better thing, I think all the ranchers are in there.”
But not all of them. Kagai, a Missouri farmer, said uncertainty creates its own problems.
“I’m not confident in these tariffs,” he said. “Do they stick? Don’t they stick? Don’t I rely on them? Don’t I rely on them? What exactly happens? You know, no one knows. So it’s going to make it difficult to plan my business.
That uncertainty could extend well beyond farming and ranches if it creates new fears about the economy as a whole. If consumers are worried about their grocery budgets, it doesn’t matter how much beef is imported.
“If you’re worried about losing your job, you’re less likely to pay for the rib-eye steak,” Tonsar said.
Associated Press Writer Sararaza contributed to this report from Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Original issue: April 15th, 2025, 11:57am EDT
