Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to reflect Rep. Ronestes represents Kansas in the House.
President Trump’s appeal will face tests Tuesday in the Florida special election on behalf of his national security adviser Mike Waltz in Florida’s 6th Congressional District.
Trump and Waltz each won the district with more than 30 points in November, but Republican candidate Randy Fein has been behind in fundraising and voting in the district’s special elections.
Trump and other National Republicans have been paying attention to race for the past week before what is likely to be a litmus test for Trump’s brand in the state that has become the center of the GOP universe.
“That’s what we see across the state and across the country. People want to know that their elected officials understand the moments we are going through,” Florida Democratic Party Chairman Nikki Fried said in an interview with Hill.
Republicans themselves have banked the bank to tactics that have tried to make Trump a central focus of race and play well in such conservative districts.
“It’s a very simple election. Do people believe in President Trump’s agenda?” Fine said in a video streamed on X on Sunday. “Or do you want someone who’s done a big deal about being supported by Bernie Sanders?
“The Democrats are angry because every time President Trump wins, he loses,” he added.
Republican losses in District 6 would be a political earthquake. The district held by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has not been represented by Democrats since 1989.
However, National Republicans and Democrats turned their attention to race after Democratic candidate Josh Weill announced that his campaign had raised about $10 million and aired in district ads in early March. Meanwhile, he grew up with less than 1 million fines. Weil also keeps the issues of around $8.2 million to $895,000. On top of that, an internal vote from Republican company Fabrizio Ward showed Weil holds a three-point lead over the fine.
Some Democrats have warned this year that it is a race about boosting Trump’s performance in the country, following a number of special election wins and overperformance. Democrats in Florida say Weil’s momentum is a sign of dissatisfaction with Trump in districts reflected across the country.
Fried cited fears of cuts from government efficiency and potential cuts to programs such as Medicaid and Social Security.
“They are disappointed where this Trump administration is heading. They feel betrayed,” she said. “It’s all in Florida and all over the country.”
Republicans say Tuesday’s special election, like special elections, does not necessarily reflect the entire voter. They argue that special elections will elicit lower voter turnout, especially from parties of power.
“It’s true, if Republicans lose their seats, it will raise some serious concerns and require posthumous death. But I don’t think the seats will be lost, and in special elections where many voters are not paying attention, the story of the winning margin is irrelevant.”
Sources said Kansas Rep. Ron Estes (R) tried to quell concerns about a special election at last week’s GOP conference meeting, winning a special election that would replace the REP at the time. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.) was a narrow margin in 2017, but has since been re-elected with a large margin. Estes scored around six points in his special election. In 2018, he earned over 18 points reelection.
“Many Republican voters and many of the people we received under Trump are voters with a lower tendency. They don’t vote every four years. If Trump is at the top of the vote, it’s fine.”
That’s why Republicans are trying to cling to Trump and his allies to race. Last week, Trump fined two teletown halls. Rep. Byron Donald (R-FLA.), running for governor, will be joining another teletown hall tonight with conservative talk show host Ben Shapiro.
And Republicans are stepping into the estimated 1.2 million voter registration advantage in the state.
Democrats are keen on Trump’s close ties to race, which argues that it allows them to not only leave their base, but also persuade independents.
“The equation for how to win in Florida is very simple. Become a Democrat, for Democrats, get the independence to break a big margin and get Republican votes at least a bit. That’s the equation that got you whether it’s Miami-Dade or in the Panhandle,” Fried said.
Fine saw his early and absentee voting margins improve over the weekend, but it remains unclear what that means for election night.
“On the weekend [absentee/early vote] “We’ve seen a lot of effort into this world,” said Scott Tranter, Director of Data Science at Decision Desk HQ.
“Despite this positive change towards a great campaign, it may not be enough to make him the leader when the first vote is reported after the vote is finished, and we hope to win the election day votes reported as the night goes on.
Emily Brooks contributed to this story.
